Rating of countries in terms of effectiveness in combating COVID-19: USA is among the outsiders

The strategy to combat the global SARS-CoV-2 pandemic around the world comes down to about the same measures: states close borders, universities and schools, cancel all public events and impose more or less strict quarantine or other restrictions. But, despite this, the successes in curbing the coronavirus infection and maintaining at least some kind of economic stability are different for everyone. Writes about this DW.

Photo: Shutterstock

The most effective measures were introduced by Israel, Germany and South Korea. This is evidenced by the results of a study conducted by experts of the Deep Knowledge Group (DKG) from London.

In Israel, as of the beginning of the day, April 17, 12 855 infected with coronavirus infection were registered, 148 of them died, and almost 19 cases were cured of COVID-3000. Such indicators are among the best in the world. Indeed, in other countries with approximately the same number of infected, the mortality rate has already crossed the line of 1000 victims and continues to grow.

They are followed by Australia, China, New Zealand, Taiwan, Singapore, Japan and Hong Kong. When compiling the rating, its creators largely took into account the effectiveness of measures that restrain the spread of coronavirus infection, explains Dmitry Kaminsky, founder of DKG.

“The country should have either initially declared a very strict quarantine to prevent the spread of infection, or - as in the case of Germany and China - introduced restrictive measures after a fairly large number of people had become infected, and at the same time treated the sick quite effectively, ensuring that so that the number of deaths is relatively small,” says the analyst.

One of the main parameters to be included in the rating, he adds, was the growth curve of the number of infected: “It should be stable or decreasing. That is why European countries such as Italy and Spain were not included in the rating.”

Russia did not make it into the top 40 countries that are successfully coping with the coronavirus crisis. In the near future, the Deep Knowledge Group will expand its ranking to one hundred countries, and Russia, says Kaminsky, will enter the second half of the list - along with the United States and Great Britain.

The top ten ranking looks like this:

1. Israel
2. Germany
3. South Korea
4. Australia
5. China
6. New Zealand
7. Taiwan
8. Singapore
9. Japan
10. Hong Kong

A complete list can be found at link.

The rating is an example to follow in the fight against the pandemic

Initially, the Deep Knowledge Group venture fund, created in 2014 in Hong Kong, invested in biotech startups and in the development of artificial intelligence and Big Data. According to Dmitry Kaminsky, the fund’s experts decided to start compiling ratings related to the COVID-19 pandemic after the spread of the disease became global, plunging the world “into a state of panic, chaos and disorientation.”

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“The governments of many countries,” says Kaminsky, “don’t know what to do. Residents of these countries don’t even know. We decided to compile a rating of effectiveness in the fight against coronavirus infection, using some mathematical or methodological assessments of analysis, so that it becomes clear why a number of countries managed to succeed in this situation. So far, 24 indicators are being assessed, in the next rating there will be 36 of them - and other states will be able to use them as a kind of action plan.”

In their research, DKG experts use information from open sources, including data from the World Health Organization and Johns Hopkins University. Dmitry Kaminsky says that in general we are talking about assessing the effectiveness of the national healthcare system now and for the near future, as well as the level of economic stability and capacity of the state in the long term - after the end of the pandemic.

“After all, it is necessary not only to survive the epidemic, but also to be able to restart the economy, avoiding its collapse, and actively develop in the next few years,” explains Kaminsky. “The ranking shows which countries can most effectively protect their residents from both the consequences of COVID-19 infection and the economic shocks caused by the pandemic of this deadly disease.”

When compiling the rating, Deep Knowledge Group analysts took into account criteria such as the effectiveness of national disease monitoring and detection systems, in particular, wide access to coronavirus tests. They also drew attention to the effectiveness of quarantine and other restrictive measures. Another parameter was the reserves of the health care system.

“If you take Germany,” says Kaminsky, “then there is a very large supply of intensive care beds, there are enough hospitals and medical personnel. But, more importantly, Germany has the ability to produce medical equipment and drugs within the country: it will be able to solve these problems on its own, even if it finds itself completely cut off from other countries, say, in the event of a worsening pandemic.”

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The founder of the DKG emphasizes the ability of the German authorities to manage crisis situations at both the federal and regional levels.

“Given the initially high infection rate, Germany passed the stress test extremely effectively and successfully slowed down the spread of the disease, managing to avoid the fate of other countries. This will give it significant economic advantages after the end of the pandemic,” he emphasized.

“Moscow can repeat the scenario of New York”

Deep Knowledge Group also introduced ranking of countries at risk in a pandemic. The first place went to Italy.

The USA took second position in this ranking. The country has become the epicenter of the pandemic. According to the latest data as of 10:00 (New York time) on April 17, 671 people were infected in the country, of which 493 died.

Closing the top five are Great Britain, Spain and France.

The top ten ranking leaders look like this:

1. Italy
2. USA
3. United Kingdom
4. Spain
5. France
6. Sweden
7. Iran
8. Ecuador
9. Philippines
10. Romania

A complete list can be found at link.

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Russia is in 12th place - between Nigeria and Bangladesh. When compiling this rating, DKG analysts took into account parameters such as the rate of spread of infection, the efficiency of the healthcare system, in particular the number of hospitals, medical personnel and ventilator beds, government regulation and specific risks inherent in a particular region. Kaminsky fears that in Moscow “the New York scenario could be repeated”: a sharp increase in the number of people infected with coronavirus, in which overcrowded hospitals will always find it more difficult to provide effective care to the sick.

The analyst also emphasizes that the country's place in the ratings is unstable.

“Some data is updated in real time, and depending on how the situation develops, the rating may go up or down,” he says. At the end of April, the Deep Knowledge Group plans to publish a new list of countries' safety in a pandemic. The founder of DKG does not rule out that a gradual and careful exit from the lockdown, which is now happening in a number of countries affected by COVID-19, could lead to a new distribution of places in the ranking.

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