Fall in fertility and aging: how will Earth's population change by 2050 year

The population will grow mainly in poor countries.

Фото: Depositphotos

In the next 30 years, the world's population will grow by 2 billion people and by 2050 will reach 9,7 billion. In general, by the end of the century, the world's population could grow to 11 billion people. This is stated in the new UN report on global demographic change and prospects.

According to the report, 50% of population growth over the next three decades will come from nine countries - India, Nigeria, Pakistan, DR Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt and the United States. In 2027, analysts predict, India will overtake China and take first place in the world in terms of population. The number of inhabitants of tropical Africa will double by 2050.

Population is aging

The authors of the report confirm that the population of the planet is aging, this process is especially noticeable in the countries of Europe and North America. In 2018, the number of older people from 65 and older for the first time exceeded the number of children up to 5.

According to the authors of the report, by the year 2050 every sixth person on Earth will be older than 65 years (today it is every eleventh). In some regions, including North Africa, Asia, and Latin America, the proportion of older people will double in the coming 30 years.

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In Europe and North America, the proportion of people older than 65 in years to 2050 will reach a quarter.

It is expected that an increase in the share and number of older people will exert increased financial pressure on countries over the coming decades, which will entail additional spending on public health and social protection systems, as well as affecting the payment of pensions.

Although the overall life expectancy will increase (from 64,2 of the year in 1990, to 77,1 of the year in 2050), life expectancy in poorer countries will still be low. The average life expectancy of a person born today in one of the least developed countries will be about seven years shorter than a child born in one of the developed countries. The main causes are high infant and maternal mortality rates, violence and the spread of HIV.

High rates of emigration

In some cases, population decline is aggravated by high rates of emigration. Migration flows have become the main cause of population change in some regions. Bangladesh, Nepal and the Philippines are experiencing the largest outflow of citizens due to the demand for migrant workers, and Myanmar, Syria and Venezuela are the countries from which the majority of people leave because of violence, armed conflict and insecurity. In countries where the population is declining, immigration is expected to cope with this - especially in Belarus, Estonia and Germany.

"In most cases, rapid population growth occurs in the poorest countries, where it creates additional problems,"- notes Liu Zhenming, UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs.

Countries will have to fight poverty and hunger, achieve greater equality, improve health and education.

Falling birth rate

The report also notes a growing number of countries experiencing population decline. This is due, first of all, to the fall in the birth rate. By 2050, 55 countries will have a population decline of at least 1%. Among them are Ukraine, Belarus, Russia, Armenia, Latvia and Lithuania. This trend is expected to spread to 2050 countries between now and 55, with almost half of them seeing population declines of at least 10%.

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In particular, the population of Ukraine will decrease by 2050 million people by 8,8, from the current 44 million to 35,2 million people. Russia's population could decline to 99,7 million people by 2078, the UN warns.

According to a more optimistic UN forecast, the population of Russia will increase to 160 million people. The average median value for 2078 is 127,4 million people, writes “Газета.ру»

The report also reports that in Russia, 100 men account for 86,4 women. This is one of the lowest in the world. Fewer men than women live in Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia, Hong Kong, Nepal. According to UN forecasts, the rate will grow, but very slowly: by 2060, 100 men will be women in 90,2 women.

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