The intrigue is growing: Trump has sharply reduced the gap with Biden in the election ratings

The political conventions have ended and both candidates have been declared official candidates for the US presidential elections. According to a new survey USA Today / Suffolk University Poll, Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in the race for the White House by 7% - 50% to 43%. That lead narrowed from June's lead of 12 percentage points.

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As Labor Day approaches, leading up to the final sprint of the campaign, the survey finds significant skepticism about whether the election can be trusted. If their candidate loses, one in four voters say they are not prepared to accept the result as fair and accurate — a signal of potential troubles ahead for a country gripped by a deadly pandemic and torn by questions of racial justice.

“I'm definitely concerned about it,” said Curtis Saffi, 38, of Hampton, Georgia, who plans to vote for Biden. “Whether it’s the mail or interference in our elections, you really don’t know what’s going to happen.”

28% of supporters of the former vice president say they are not ready to acknowledge Trump's victory as a fair victory; 19% of President Trump's supporters say they are not ready to recognize Biden's victory as legitimate.

An overwhelming 83% of Republicans say they are at least somewhat concerned that a mail-order vote will lead to falsification; 62% are very concerned about this probability. This claim, which Trump made without providing evidence, is disputed by election experts and academic research.

“It will definitely fail 100 percent,” predicted David Brockman, 38, a Trump supporter from Columbus, Indiana, who was among those surveyed. - I have no doubt."

A third of Democrats are concerned that mail-order voting opens up opportunities for fraud.

A poll of 1000 registered voters, conducted by landline and mobile phones, has an error of plus or minus 3,1 points.

Counting suspicions may be fueled by disagreements over how Americans plan to vote. Republicans are more than twice as likely as Democrats to say they will vote in person and on election day, 56%, up from 26%. Democrats are more than twice as likely as Republicans to plan to vote by correspondence or by mail, 47%, up from 21%.

On the subject: Elections 2020: why it is better to vote in advance and how to do it

Trump defines the competition

Among the president's supporters, 83% say they will vote for him; only 11% will vote against his opponent.

Among Biden's supporters, 59% say they will vote for him, and one in three, 33%, say they will vote against his opponent. In subsequent telephone interviews, some are very serious about the dangers of Trump's second term.

“I think there's something incredibly anti-democratic and troubling about Trump's rhetoric, beyond the politics,” said Antonio Gonzalez, 31, a Democrat from Portland, Oregon. “I am genuinely concerned about what will happen if he has four more years in this position.”

Two-thirds of Democrats and two-thirds of Republicans say the conventions have increased their chances of supporting their party's candidates.

The Democratic Congress turned out to be slightly better than the Republican one, according to independent experts. In their view, congressional surveillance increased, rather than decreased, the likelihood of Biden's support, and also reduced the likelihood of supporting Trump.

In some respects, Biden's situation is similar to that of Hillary Clinton, Democratic presidential candidate four years ago. In a USA TODAY / Suffolk poll conducted in August 2016, Clinton was 7 points ahead of Trump (this poll included third-party candidates; Biden is 5 points ahead of Trump on a ballot that includes third-party options).

In that election, Clinton won the popular vote, but lost the Electoral College vote to Trump.

“I would say Biden is no better off right now,” says David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk Center for Policy Research. “Although there are significant differences between these elections. Hillary was more polarized and less likable than Biden in terms of favorable/unfavorable ratings. However, Clinton had more enthusiasm than Biden today, which makes the analysis a little risky."

On the subject: Trump or Biden: whose victory is predicted by scientists who guessed the results of the US elections more than once

A country divided by protests and violence

The situation in the country is more dangerous now than it was four years ago. The death toll from the coronavirus among Americans is approaching 200 thousand, and thousands of demonstrators took to the streets to protest the police treatment of blacks. In some cities there were looting and arson.

About half of those surveyed, 49%, say that police shooting at blacks reflects individual actions and misconduct, and 41% say it reflects systemic racism in American society. A sharp party split is observed: 83% of Republicans see individual misconduct in the shooting; 73% of Democrats see systemic racism.

The overwhelming majority of Americans, 57%, believe that peaceful demonstrations should continue, although violence has followed in some cities. 36% say peaceful demonstrations should be stopped because they were followed by violence.

And on this issue, partisanship causes a deep split. More than three-quarters of Democrats say peaceful demonstrations must continue. Nearly six in 10 Republicans say they should stop.

“We need to deal with this — the violence, the looting, the rioting,” said Brockman, a Trump voter from Indiana. “We will have a civil war in the next six months unless something happens.”

Dana Carbonell, 35, a Democrat from Weehawken, New Jersey, supports the demonstrations, but not the violence.

“Change in this country can only happen when people take to the streets and make their voices heard,” she says.

In their interviews, Carbonell and Brockman agree on one thing.

“Honestly, this is really important,” he says of the November election. She agrees. “One way or another, this will determine our time.”

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