Trump or Biden: whose victory is predicted by scientists who guessed the results of the US elections more than once

Trump or Biden? Two university professors from the United States have accurately predicted the winner of many previous elections. "Voice of America" reached out to them to find out who, in their opinion, will win the elections in 2020.

Photo: Shutterstock

In 2016, almost all sociologists predicted Hillary Clinton's victory. Almost everyone was wrong. But there are two experts who accurately predicted the winner of that and many previous elections.

Allan Lichtman, history professor at the American University, has accurately predicted the results of all elections since 1984. Helmut Norpot, a political science professor at Stony Brook University, developed a model that accurately predicted the results of 25 of the 27 US elections since 1912.

Each of them makes their own forecasts by analyzing different data. Professor Lichtman identified 13 key issues that relate to areas such as the economy, international politics, party unity, candidate charisma, and so on. The answer “yes” gives a point to the candidate of the ruling party, the answer “no” - to his opponent.

“If the incumbent White House loses by 6 points or more, I predict he will lose,” Lichtman says.

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Professor Norpot developed his own model, which analyzed the results of the presidential elections over the past 100+ years. The main factor in his model is the result of the primaries. The candidate who first received a nomination in the intraparty elections will become the next president. But that's not the only factor, Norpot says.

“I take into account another factor, which I call the movement of the pendulum. It takes into account political fluctuations over the past 200 years and helps predict the outcome of elections,” the scientist says.

So who is expected to win this year?

“Donald Trump will lose the election,” Lichtman’s opinion.

“Trump has a 91% probability of winning the election,” Norpoth’s opinion.

Professor Lichtman (left) and Professor Norpot (right). Photo: video frame "Voices of America"

Each of the professors is sure that his forecast is correct. Lichtman, who is a Democrat, recently bet on Trump to win, but changed his outlook due to the coronavirus pandemic and a wave of protests against racial discrimination and police brutality.

“Just a few months ago, Donald Trump and the Republican Party looked almost guaranteed winners. Only 4 of the 13 key issues were against them. Now I predict them to lose, they lost 7 points - that’s 2 points more than they need to lose,” says Lichtman.

Norpot, who is a registered independent expert, does not think the virus or protests will affect the outcome.

“My forecast is unconditional and unchangeable, it is carved in stone. It can't be bent, but it can still break in the end, Norpoth says. “I only give 9% that I’m wrong.”

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Lichtman notes that two factors can influence his model: external interference in elections and suppression of turnout.

“The Republican base is made up of older white men like me,” he says. “This part of the electorate is shrinking the fastest. The Republicans have nowhere to get new older men. But they could try to suppress turnout among minorities and young people, who are overwhelmingly Democratic voters. And that worries me."

Lichtman and Norpot say they don't pay attention to polls.

“We live in an era of great social sensitivity,” Norpoth says. “Some people may be hesitant to admit in a survey that they support Donald Trump because it sounds bad and will be poorly received by other people.”

At the moment, only one thing can be predicted for sure: in November, the forecast of one of these two professors will come true.

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