Fires in California: why so many people have disappeared and is it possible to avoid a repetition of the tragedy

Over the past few days, the number of people who have been missing list as a result of fires in northern California, increased to more than 1200 people. Then it dropped to about a thousand.

These fluctuations caused confusion in the minds of many residents of the state and officials, notes Air force. The Camp Fire, as it is called, killed 77 people, an official record, and the death toll has remained relatively stable.

So why is the list of missing people so mobile?

The answer to that question isn't as simple as officials in the hardest-hit area, Butte County, admit. On Friday, as the number of missing people topped 1000, Sheriff Corey Honea called the list of missing people "dynamic."

“While the information I am passing on to you is quite raw, we do not rule out that there are duplicate names on the list,” the sheriff said.

Authorities indicate that the number of missing people changes due to the fact that the list is constantly updated and revised based on incoming messages, phone calls and emails, the flow of which after 8 November, when the fire started, is only increasing.

The fire spread very quickly, and many residents were forced to hurry to evacuate. In this situation, it was difficult to obtain confirmed information about missing people. Currently, hundreds of rescue and police officers, accompanied by specially trained dogs, are searching for human remains in burnt houses.

Some media outlets immediately noted duplication of names or strange anomalies in the list of missing people. For example, the newspaper New York Times wrote that it found five people at the age of 119 in the early versions of the list.

The newspaper reported that she managed to find some people on the list using social networks.

The attention of the press was attracted by the case of Tamara Conry, who posted a post on Facebook that she was alive.

“My husband and I were never on the list of missing persons,” she wrote on Thursday on one of the pages specifically designated for the search. “Our relatives are not looking for us.” I called and left a request to remove our names from the list.”

Sheriff Honea explained why he decided not to oppose the publication of unverified lists. “It is important for us to disseminate information as widely as possible to begin the search and identification of the missing,” he says.

In total, more than 12 thousands of buildings were destroyed by fire in the state, and evacuation orders are active in several areas. Thousands of residents are housed in temporary premises or shelters.

Therefore, it is very difficult for the authorities to establish who exactly is missing, and who got on the list by accident or by mistake. The situation is complicated by communication difficulties. The fire destroyed many mobile towers and cable lines. In some areas, temporary mobile towers are now installed.

Authorities keep records of announcements about the loss of people who are placed by relatives on bulletin boards in temporary camps for evacuees. In social networks, there are special pages where you can post requests for missing.

Butte County's official list of missing persons includes many elderly names, reflecting the population - the county is home to many retirees who bought homes here after retiring. IN Paradise, almost completely destroyed by fire27 lived thousands of people, about a quarter of the inhabitants of the city were older than 65 years.

Erik Rainbold, the chief of police in Paradise, says that the demographics of the city point to the difficulties the authorities faced in evacuating the elderly in extraordinary circumstances.

“Like other places, we have a lot of older people who either no longer use cars or have never driven at all,” the police chief says. Such people, if they manage to get out of dangerous areas, often do not have access to the Internet or telephones to inform friends and family about themselves.

Sheriff Honea says that because of the relocations, many of the people whose names were on the missing list may not even realize that they are being searched.

According to his employees, this list is being published because the authorities hope with its help to encourage people to report their fate. Authorities ask local residents to constantly check the list and tell them by phone about people who are safe in order to focus limited resources on finding others.

Will tragedy happen again? Five myths about forest fires

Columnist BBC Future explores the five most common misconceptions that prevent us more effectively deal with forest fires.

The flames of wildfires are rolling like a fiery skating rink across California - thousands are fleeing their homes, dozens of people have died, the fire has reached the bohemian areas of the state, and mansions of some famous film actors and singers have already burned down.

In the summer, a similar disaster struck Greece, killing 99 people. Due to record heat and drought in July, forests burned in Sweden. In Russia, fires rage in forests almost every summer - for example, in July of this year, smoke from fires in Siberia reached as far as North America.

So, now, because of global warming, it will always be like this everywhere? Or are forest fires a normal thing, natural for nature, even though they bring tragedy into our lives? Can they be avoided, and if so, how?

Let's take a look at the five most enduring myths that prevent us from effectively dealing with this scourge.

Myth number 1: Regular deforestation prevents forest fires

There is an opinion that deforestation, at least selectively, can prevent fires. But in fact, many forestry experts say that it is ineffective because it still leaves behind stumps and branches, which can be considered excellent fuel for a fire - after all, they are usually drier and ignite more easily than living trees - especially in lack of forest cover.

The words of these experts are more than once confirmed by research. For example, one of the recent work of scientists has shown that the degree of burnout was higher in those areas where there was a higher level of forest use and concern for the forest.

Scientists working on the problem of preserving forests from fires reject claims that felling allegedly protects endangered species from fire (this argument is popular with supporters of felling). In fact, animals and birds (such as the famous spotted owl) benefit from burnt forest, and cutting down trees creates problems for them.

Another practice provides more benefits - completely clearing entire areas of forest. This is what firefighters do to prevent the spread of fire.

Myth number 2: You can not protect your house from fire

Burning wood carries great danger, the flame is difficult to stop. However, each household can take a series of measures that will reduce the degree of risk.

You need to start from the house itself. Buildings with roofs made of heat-resistant materials increase the chances of escaping fire. It is also recommended to clear the building and surrounding areas of flammable materials, including leaves.

A family can create a "protection zone" between their home and the surrounding area. This means that you need to remove everything that can catch fire within a zone of nine meters from the building. Even when the trees closest to the house are at a distance of 9-30 meters, care must be taken to ensure that their crowns are also spaced at this distance from each other - this makes it difficult for the fire to spread and reduces its speed.

Myth number 3: Forest fires are inevitable, they are natural to nature.

Although wildfires are indeed a natural phenomenon, their current intensity and prevalence are not at all natural, but are one of the factors influencing changes in the planet's climate.

Between 1930 and 1980, when Earth's weather conditions were different on average—cooler and wetter—we saw fewer fires. But as the climate has become hotter and drier over the past four decades, the number of fires has increased. Between 1980 and 1999 there were two years when more than 2,4 million hectares burned in forest fires in the United States. And from 2000 to 2017 there were 10 years when this figure was exceeded.

In the period between 1978 and 2013 for years across the planet, the duration of the forest fire season increased by about 19%.

Of course, we cannot blame climate change for a particular fire, but these changes affect factors leading to fires and the spread of fire (large droughts, high temperatures, low humidity and strong winds). As a result, according to scientists, the number of fires across the planet is growing, from Siberia to Portugal, and is associated with climate change.

Myth number 4: All forest fires are harmful, they must be immediately extinguished.

For thousands of years, wildfires have played a key role in Earth's ecosystems, and life on the planet has evolved alongside and in response to them. Some beetles reproduce only in the heat of fires, the cones of the so-called fire pine release seeds into the air only in fire, new plants appear in spaces cleared by fire - and so on.

In fact, what people are trying to do with deforestation or other forest management methods is naturally achieved as a result of forest fires.

The fire periodically consumes small branches and trees, destroying parts of the forest that would otherwise provide excellent fuel for a large fire. By persistently fighting wildfires over the past century, we have prevented this “self-cleaning”: today, less than one percent of fires in the United States are allowed to burn unchecked.

Perhaps this strategy is good when the number of fires is small. But in the present conditions, the financial costs of extinguishing fires are paying less and less.

Myth number 5: It is possible to get rid of all fires (or control them)

As we have already understood, climate change, together with other human factors, will influence an increase in the number of forest fires in the coming decades - especially in mid and high latitudes. There may be fewer fires in the tropics, which will be a relief for equatorial countries. However, for the rest of the planet this will become a problem that will only grow in severity.

Some fires, like those in California, spread too quickly and are extremely difficult to control. In such conditions, the only reasonable means remain evacuation and resettlement.

And this leaves us with the question: what to do with such settlements as, for example, Paradise in northern California, which was almost completely destroyed by fire - rebuild it or move it to another, safer place?

Some experts call for studying the experience of traditional indigenous practitioners in fighting wildfires.

Our efforts to fight the fire are so far ineffective, and since there is no reason to believe that forests will burn less, the problem of fires is acquiring a political overtones - it will have to be addressed by state authorities.

Read also on ForumDaily:

7 simple ways to protect the environment and save

Americans warned: 12 years left before dangerous climate change

What will you have to give up when you live in San Francisco

Dangerous rain falls on California's burnt cities

Big City Survival Guide

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