Trump's victory: how the scandal lost to conspiracy
The victory of the candidate from the US Republican Party Donald Trump in the US presidential election did not come as a surprise to me, but, like many, it gave rise to a feeling of anxiety about the steps of the future president. However, both external and internal policies of Trump are very difficult to predict - too much depends on the composition of his future administration, and on how he develops relations with the republican establishment. It is much more interesting to try to understand the reasons for this unexpected victory for many.
As often happens in such cases, there are a lot of reasons, moreover, both completely objective and artificially created. Among objective reasons can be called a technological revolution, shifting the concept of "middle class" in the direction of IT-specialists and the intellectual elite. The rapid development of Silicon Valley and other high-tech industries has led to a sharp increase in the cost of living, which significantly affects the income level of people who are not involved in the IT industry.
The second reason was the social policy of the ruling Democratic Party, which was not able to level the resulting difference in the incomes of Americans. Many immigrants arriving in various programs at the expense of taxpayers are provided with social guarantees, benefits and a huge social package, depriving them of an incentive to look for work. At the same time, the system is extremely bureaucratic, and many people who no longer face real persecution (for example, the persecution of Protestants in Ukraine have stopped for a long time) fall into the list of “beneficiaries” who can be granted refugee status. All this only exacerbates social inequality and discontent of Americans.
Separate dissatisfaction of some Americans is caused by the rhetoric of the Democratic Party, which attaches particular importance to the protection of the rights of minorities and individuals. As a result, even the formal reliance on minorities and immigrants causes resentment among Native Americans, especially those living in the hinterland. Older people are dissatisfied with the fact that patriotism gives way to excessive political correctness, and professionalism to the mandatory requirement of “ensuring diversity”. Numerous American churches are also unhappy with the loss of their dominant status in society. We cannot discount the rumors of corruption scandals associated with the Clinton Foundation.
Among artificially created reasons can be called quite aggressive and lasting for several years the propaganda of radical Republicans, the existence of which is noted and american journalists. I have often heard arguments about the “liberal conspiracy”, “democratic propaganda machine”, that there is supposedly no freedom and democracy in America, but there is an invisible and extremely terrible dictatorship. As a person who escaped from a truly dictatorial state, I confess, it was crazy to hear such arguments in a country where there are free media with diametrically opposed points of view, independent courts, fair elections and, as we have seen recently, the peaceful transfer of power from the ruling party to the opposition.
With a similar injection of conspiracy theories, a radical exaggeration of the existing problems to the level of “tragedy”, “catastrophe” and “country’s death” the enemy, until recently, were the United States, and in America itself the ruling party. As a result, a growing sense of collapse and hopelessness is created in the subject to this propaganda, which Trump's populism quite successfully overlaps with his arrogant promises to fix it all alone. The demonization of the enemy also turns out to be a fertile ground for the growth of aggression and xenophobic moods.
By the way, supporters of these theories have already stated that the protests that swept the country against Trump’s election “paid for by Soros”, since “liberals do not respect our democracy”. It is especially amusing to hear this against the background of the fact that it was Trump who stated that in the event of his defeat he would not recognize the election results, since they would obviously be falsified. The leaders of the Democrats (both Obama and Clinton), on the contrary, unquestioningly acknowledged the results without even trying to challenge them, and did not call on their supporters for any protest actions. Moreover, it is obvious that a protest that does not have leaders and a constructive goal cannot develop into a full-fledged revolution, and therefore its imaginary “financing” would be a waste of money.
However, it is much easier for conspiracy theorists to believe in conspiracy and repayment than in the fact that their favorite candidate during the election campaign turned a huge number of people against him, who now perceive him as a personal threat. How, in this case, not to recall Putin’s holy faith that all protests are funded by the CIA, and certainly with the aim of destroying Russia!
However, it cannot be said that the media controlled by democrats are distinguished by absolute truthfulness. Among them, there are also “yellow” publications or some inaccurate articles. However, their philosophy is sustained in a more "Western" style: this psychology scandal, sensations, noisy splash of unverified information. For example, after the announcement of the FBI Director’s statement in late October James Komi about the resumption of the investigation into the letters of Hillary Clinton in some media instantly appeared articles that the FBI is a "Trampland" and almost all of its employees are pathologically hating Clinton and openly playing for Trump. However, several experienced journalists with sources in power structures told me that among rank-and-file employees, the ratio of sympathies (or, more correctly, antipathies) is somewhere 50 / 50, as is the average in American society.
Of course, this does not negate the fact that the Komi act could affect the outcome of the elections - given that in this case we had a rather anti-rating contest, and until the last moment a rather large part of the population remained and did not decide which candidate they did not like more. Not by chance Hillary Clinton directly blamed Komi in his defeat. You can not ignore the open campaign for Trump (along with the disclosure of various rumors and "leaks") of the former FBI employee Rudy Giuliani. However, at the same time, the example of “Trumpland” easily shows how some facts imperceptibly transform into others, inflate and are presented in the form of grandiose revelations - in full accordance with the laws of the scandal.
However, the laws of psychology are such that the scandal inevitably loses conspiracy. The fact is that conspiracy, in contrast to the scandal, creates a coherent and quite logical frame of reference, designed to make people believe in it sacredly. The scandal in its essence does not imply that people believe in it. His task is to attract attention, warm up interest, throw in “fried” information, without worrying about its veracity. He is unable to create any coherent and logical system, since it was originally designed for people with a modern “clip” consciousness - however, it can be a decisive impetus when making a decision, as it most likely was the result of the Komi act.
At the same time, it is rather difficult for the authors of the scandal to predict what its outcome will be. It is unlikely that the media, which with such gusto hyped every antics of Trump, expected to thereby only add to his popularity. Moreover, they hardly think about the fact that each case of unverified information is instantly used by conspiracy theorists to prove their conspiracy theory. And no one at all thought that a society accustomed to scandals could react so vividly to another scandal, already used against Hillary, not Trump - that notorious letter to the FBI. And in this context, it was completely unimportant that the letters did not find grounds for bringing charges, and that the FBI was not "Trumpland" after all. A scandal, unlike conspiracy theories, does not imply a continuation, it is a shot into the void, a clap designed to produce an instant effect, and nothing more.
Now it is difficult to say what exactly was the very last drop that determined the outcome of the elections (given that Clinton still won by simple majority). However, soon the voters will demand concrete actions and fulfillment of election promises from the new president. And in the event of Trump’s failure, he is unlikely to be able to hide his mistakes behind the screen of conspiracy or scandals, because in the end reality prevails over any type of television.
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