'We will soon see new military defeats of the Kremlin': Russian politician speaks at Stanford

The Russian army is in a deplorable state, business is suffering from mobilization and sanctions, and the Russians, contrary to the data of pro-government sociologists, are not eager to die for Putin. This was announced on October 24 at a meeting at Stanford University by Russian opposition politician and economist, former Deputy Minister of Energy of Russia Vladimir Milov.

Photo: Ksenia Kirillova

Destruction of the economy

According to the oppositionist, the very decision to mobilize in Russia is a manifestation of a kind of hysteria by Vladimir Putin against the backdrop of a successful Ukrainian offensive in the Kharkov direction, undertaken at the end of September.

«The authorities avoided mobilization to the last, realizing how unpopular this decision was among the population, and what huge damage it could bring to the Russian economy.", - said Vladimir Milov. Particularly serious problems, according to him, are experienced by business - both because of the outflow of entrepreneurs and investments from Russia, and because of emerging problems in the labor market. In the last month, high-class specialists have been leaving the country en masse, hoping to avoid being drafted into the army.

By the way, even experts loyal to the Kremlin confirm this information. Thus, the director of the Center for the Development of Regional Policy Ilya Grashchenkov recognizedthat mobilization destroys Russian entrepreneurship and leads to a mass exodus of entrepreneurs from a country that is turning into "hardly interesting for business development."

Head of the Social Research Laboratory of the Institute of Regional Problems Petr Kiryan notesthat mobilization falls primarily on men of working professions living in small and medium-sized settlements and in the countryside, that is, in places where there is already a shortage of young able-bodied people. A vivid example of this is the situation in the Far East, when the overzealous work of the military registration and enlistment offices almost led to the fact that there was a critical shortage of air traffic controllers in the region. According to Kiryan, the labor market found itself in an unusual situation for it of a point shortage of personnel, including in key areas of life support.

On the subject: An IT specialist in Russia has been living in a dense forest for a month to avoid mobilization

Vladimir Milov, in turn, notes that against the background of the panic caused by the mobilization and the outflow of a large number of people, those leaving began to actively withdraw money from banks. As a result, banks do not have enough cash currency, and they are forced to raise interest rates on loans, which also affects people's well-being.

«The Russian authorities are trying to demonstrate some "Potem signs" of economic stability, like a fictitious ruble exchange rate. However, it is important to look at other indicators, for example, the real increase in unemployment in the country.", the economist stressed.

The Russian army is an "unloved child"

With all these costs, mobilization, according to Vladimir Milov, does not solve the problems of the Kremlin at the front. The opposition politician noted that the Russian army is experiencing colossal problems with the supply and training of personnel, and the morale of the Russian troops is extremely low. According to him, the reason for this lies in the peculiarities of financing the army.

«If you analyze the military budget, you can find that 70% of the funds go not to the army, but to finance the defense complex as a whole, where uncontrolled corruption flourishes. Against this background, the army turns out to be an "unloved child": salaries in it are extremely low, and the quality of command is simply catastrophic. This means that very soon we will see new military defeats of Russia.", - predicts Vladimir Milov.

Indeed, in terms of supplies, volunteers from various Russian regions do not hidethat are forced to mobilize basic medicines and everyday items, including rugs, sleeping bags, warm linen, dishes and hygiene items. More and more on the Internet videos appear, where military registration and enlistment offices instruct conscripts to buy everything themselves: from first-aid kits to women's tampons, which can be used as hemostatic agents.

With the combat training of the new military, things are no better. British journalists notethat often people who have never served in the army are drafted into the army and sent to the front with little or no training. In addition, there is an acute shortage of experienced junior combat commanders in the Russian army.

Russian investigative journalists addthat among those mobilized for the first month were insulin-dependent diabetics and men with oncology and hepatitis. Summons were also sent to people with HIV and blindness, and not all of them returned home as part of the “fight against excesses on the ground.” There were also not enough places to accommodate the mobilized, and some had to sleep right on the floor in the training centers.

Nuclear bluff and the absence of elites

According to Vladimir Milov, the mobilization clearly demonstrated that even the Russians, who formally support the war, are not eager to die for Putin.

«Analyzing the data of opinion polls, it is important to pay attention not to the formal answer regarding the support of the president, but to some secondary indicators,” - explained the oppositionist. “In particular, almost 70% of Russians reported an increase in the level of anxiety, fear and uncertainty about the future. Another equally important indicator is the decline in the level of trust in the state media. In recent weeks, it has decreased by 25-30%».

Photo: Ksenia Kirillova

The main problem of today's Russia, Vladimir Milov calls the lack of elites in the classical political sense of the word.

«All real opposition activity in Russia is currently illegal, and there is not a single person in Putin's entourage capable of saying no to him.“, he notes, adding that this action by Putin is rather difficult to predict. This unpredictability also applies to nuclear blackmail.

«Unlike the Caribbean crisis, there are no checks and balances in today's Russian political system, which makes the situation much more dangerous than it was 60 years ago.Milov warned. Nevertheless, according to him, there is hope that now Putin will think twice about whether to order a nuclear strike.

«He has already made a mistake once, overestimating the level of his army and underestimating Ukraine and its allies. Let's just hope he'll be more careful the second time around.", - the oppositionist believes.

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Vladimir Milov notes that from the point of view of strategy, a nuclear strike on Ukrainian territory will not bring any benefits to Putin, while its consequences will be catastrophic for the ruling regime.

«The Ukrainian army is dispersed throughout the country, and a nuclear strike will not be able to destroy it. In addition, the consequences of such a strike on Ukraine are tantamount to a nuclear strike on the territory of Russia, and the cloud of infection after the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant clearly showed this.", the politician recalled.

According to him, reasoning Russian officials and propagandists that Ukraine is allegedly preparing a “provocation with a dirty nuclear bomb on its territory” is rather a test of the West’s reaction, and in this case, Western countries should show determination to give a firm response to any Russian provocations. Also, according to the Russian oppositionist, Vladimir Putin does not look like a person capable of suicidal acts.

«It is evident that he is concerned about public opinion in Russia, and that he is afraid for his safety. See how actively Putin began to travel around the world and look for allies, meekly listening to Iranian religious leaders and the President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmonand agreeing to all of their terms and conditions. Putin looks scared and actively seeking support. People who are ready to destroy the whole world, and do not take into account other people's opinions, do not behave this way.", - Vladimir Milov is convinced.

That is why the oppositionist considers continued pressure on the Kremlin in all areas, including increasing military assistance to Ukraine and tightening the sanctions policy, the most important tool to counter Russian aggression.

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