Atlantic hurricane season could start as early as April: how often does this happen

The Atlantic hurricane season may start earlier, as it has for the past seven years in a row, but any storm that could form as early as next week will be weak and not a threat to the US. Why the hurricane season starts so early and isn't it time to worry already, the publication said Weather.

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Next week

Whatever comes up next week won't threaten the US, won't last very long, and probably won't be strong.

Various computer forecast models suggest that a low pressure area could form in the Bermuda Triangle, northeast of the Bahamas, southwest of Bermuda and far off the southeast coast next week.

The water temperature in this part of the ocean contributes to the development of a tropical storm.

If enough thunderstorms can form and persist rather than be blown away from the center of low pressure by strong winds overhead, it can heat up the storm enough that it develops into a subtropical or tropical depression, or even a storm.

If it turns into a storm, it will be called Alex, the first storm of the 2022 hurricane season.

Even so, it won't have much of an impact.

It is expected to shift to the northeast and may eventually merge with a cold front far off the east coast.

In the worst case, it will pass near Bermuda and bring rain and gusty winds. But it threatens the US.

Early start no matter what

Even if no storm forms next week, there's still a good chance that the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season could start earlier.

On the subject: Frightening weather forecast: 2022 hurricane season will hit Florida hard

Ocean water is now warmer than usual over a wide area of ​​the Atlantic Ocean near and east of the Bahamas and Bermuda, as well as parts of the Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean Sea.

These are just the breeding grounds of the named storms at the beginning of the season. Warm water alone does not guarantee a tropical storm. Dry air or harsh winds could stifle any development until June 1st.

However, La Niña is now expected to last into the summer and possibly into the fall, which could reduce these shear winds that are hostile to storms.

Although it is still too early to make unambiguous statements. If anything, it's a reminder that now is the perfect time to develop or update your hurricane plan.

Not as strange as it seems

The official Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. According to the NOAA Hurricane Research Division, this period was chosen to cover 97% of all tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic.

But it's not 100%.

Most storms takes place from May to November. But sometimes there are in other months.

Five years ago, Tropical Storm Arlene formed over the central Atlantic just days after Easter in April 2017 and was one of three April tropical storms on record in the Atlantic that year.

Perhaps the strangest early start to the Atlantic season in recent memory was 2016.

Tropical Storm Bonnie hit the Carolinas in late May 2016. But it was preceded by Hurricane Alex in the east Atlantic, only the second known January hurricane. Alex eventually made landfall in the Azores as a tropical storm.

Early start was also in 2012 (Alberto, then Beryl in May), 2008 (Arthur), 2007 (another subtropical storm Andrea) and 2003 (another Ana, this time in April) . Beryl nearly turned into a hurricane before making landfall near Jacksonville Beach, Florida.

But there are a few storms that stand out the most.

Tropical Storm Arlene - 2017

The most recent April tropical storm, Arlene, was only the second April storm to be named. Accu Weather.

Forming east of Bermuda on April 16, 2017, the storm gradually intensified on April 19 and was given the name Arlene early the next morning. According to the National Hurricane Center, it peaked on April 21, with sustained winds of 51 miles (82 km) per hour. Satellite imagery showed that the storm had acquired "a small eye-like feature."

Shortly after reaching maximum strength, Arlene began to weaken. On the same day, it began to lose tropical characteristics and moved southwest of the Azores, where it dissipated on 22 April.

Tropical Storm Ana - 2003

Ana became the first ever named April storm on April 20, 2003, after it became the earliest tropical storm to form in the Atlantic Basin in 25 seasons.

Ana began as a non-tropical low on April 18 about 200 miles (321 km) southwest of Bermuda. After moving north, the system became more organized and intensified into a subtropical storm on the morning of April 20, and later intensified into a named tropical storm later that day, with maximum winds of 57 miles (91 km) per hour.

Ana maintained the intensity, lingering near Bermuda for several days, bringing over 2,6 inches (6,6 cm) of rain onto the island over a six-day period. While winds on the island did not reach tropical storm strength, ocean waves from the storm wreaked havoc on the Atlantic coast of Florida nearly 1000 miles (1 km) away.

Two people aboard the Jupiter Inlet drowned, making Ana the deadliest April storm on record.

Subtropical Storm One - 1992

The first subtropical storm, which hit in 1992, became more popular for what it didn't do, not for what it did. If he became a storm, he would be known as Andrew. Instead, Andrew only appeared in August of that season, turning into the most destructive hurricane ever to hit Florida.

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But "Subtropical Storm-1" still attracted attention. After becoming a subtropical depression on April 21, the storm, which some said looked like a comma, slowly moved to the northwest and became a subtropical storm on the morning of April 22.

Tropical Depression - 1973

Although little is known about the first tropical depression that formed in 1973, records indicate that the storm was the first of three depressions to form prior to June 1, with the first forming northeast of the Bahamas on April 18.

The 1973 NHC Hurricane Season Review notes, among other things, the presence of another depression on April 24, but even less is known about this system.

According to storm records, this second April depression formed in the same area as the first, but dissipated two days later with minimal movement.

Tropical Depression - 1962

The unnumbered and unnamed 1962 tropical depression may not have been well tracked at the time, but historical reanalysis suggests that the system may have been stronger than originally thought.

The system was first observed north of Puerto Rico on April 28, and the tropical depression it generated was discovered on April 30. From there, the storm moved northeast toward Bermuda before dissipating on May 3.

However, there may be some reason to believe that the elements may have reached tropical storm strength in those early days of May. According to a reanalysis by NOAA researchers, the storm developed a closed circuit on April 30 and became more distinct in the following days.

The researchers note that on May 1, gusts of 40 miles (64 km) per hour were reported twice about 230 miles (370 km) from the center of the storm. It weakened the next day before being swallowed up by an incoming frontal system on May 3, leaving behind insufficient evidence for the system to be formally reclassified as a tropical storm.

Nameless storms - 1912 and 1915

In the second decade of the 1900s, a couple of storms reached tropical depression strength in April. According to NOAA historical records, the first depression formed on April 3, 1912. During the day, the storm intensified with wind gusts up to 40 miles (64 km) per hour. According to NOAA, "With only one observed storm and moderately low pressure, there is not enough evidence to call this a tropical storm."

The second April storm of that decade formed on April 28, 1915. It reached tropical depression strength on 29 April and maintained that status until it was absorbed on 2 May. The 1912 depression, peak gusts, and pressure readings support the possibility that the system has reached tropical storm status, but NOAA concluded that "Without clear observable gale-force winds and moderately low pressure, there is not enough evidence to define this as a tropical storm."

At least one named storm formed before June 1 in 11 of the last 19 years through 2021. There were a total of 14 off-season named storms during this time. Most of them developed and came ashore along the coast from North Carolina to northeast Florida.

If you go back in time, according to the NOAA Historical Hurricane Track Database, 1851 storms formed in the Atlantic Basin in April or May from 2020 to 37, averaging one such early storm every four to five years.

Despite this, the National Hurricane Center did not adjust the start of the hurricane season to account for these pre-season storms. However, since last year, it began issuing regular forecasts in the Atlantic Ocean on May 15 instead of June 1.

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