Six months without Boeing 737 MAX: what has changed in the industry and what passengers should prepare for

In the time you read the headline and this sentence to the end, approximately eight Boeing 737 planes, the largest family in the history of civil aviation, will fly into the air.

Among them, however, there will not be a single liner of the latest generation, the 737 MAX. Since March 2019, all over the world they have been prohibited from operating commercial flights after two disasters, which are previously associated with design flaws. Just after two falls, 346 people died, writes Present Tense.

Today, six months later, new problems were discovered in the aircraft’s design, and the timing of the 737 MAX returning to the sky remains uncertain. Present time tells why the story with MAX is important not only for passengers and airlines, but also for Boeing Corporation itself, as well as for the entire airline industry.

What happened and why it matters

After two crashes with virtually new aircraft, Boeing's key air program, the 737 MAX, was in jeopardy. Confidence shook not only for the largest aircraft manufacturer, but at the same time for the American system of certification of aviation security, which equaled aircraft regulators around the world.

Boeing incurs billions of dollars in losses and is trying to cope with the crisis: airlines continue to cancel flights, aviation authorities put forward more demands, and there is no timeline for resolving the situation.

Chronicle

• 29 2018 October, the

The all-new Boeing 737 MAX Indonesian Lion Air fell into the sea 12 minutes after take-off, none of the 189 people on board survived.

• November 2018 years

Details appeared in the press about one of the potential culprits of the disaster: MCAS, or Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System - a system for enhancing maneuvering characteristics.

This program automatically lowers the nose of the aircraft under certain conditions. It was added to the Boeing 737 MAX to bring the handling of the new model closer to the old 737. To save fuel, the 737 MAX lineup uses noticeably larger engines, located slightly different than in previous aircraft of the family.

Due to this, in certain modes (for example, during take-off), the aircraft can lift its nose too high, which increases the risk of stall. MCAS in these conditions automatically lowers the nose, leveling the liner.

In the case of the Lion Air plane, MCAS received incorrect readings from one of the angle of attack sensors and erroneously activated, pointing the plane down. Judging by the preliminary report, the pilots tried unsuccessfully to overcome her “help.”

• 6 November

Boeing issued a special newsletter explaining 1 in this regard, and on November 10, in a separate message, talked about MCAS.

Before the disaster, as it turned out, few people knew about this system outside the corporation: the program was supposed to work completely unnoticed by crews. It was not mentioned about her in a short training manual for pilots 737 MAX.

At the same time, American pilots complained about the strange behavior of the aircraft, and the problem with uncontrolled lowering of the nose was mentioned in the preliminary report on the crash of the Lion Air airliner. But the next catastrophe could not be avoided, and she followed a similar scenario.

• March 10 2019

Second 737 MAX crash happened less than six months after the first: and again, the practically new Boeing 737 MAX Ethiopian Ehtiopean Airlines crashes shortly after takeoff. 157 people died in the crash.

Aviation authorities around the world are starting to ban 737 MAX flights until investigations are completed. The first to ban China (10 of March), and the last, 13 of March, to ban 737 MAX flying the United States of America.

• March 13 2019

All 370 Boeing 737 MAX family aircraft delivered to 47 airlines stopped commercial flights. More 107 companies expect from Boeing about 5000 737 MAX aircraft.

• April 1 2019

A criminal investigation has begun regarding possible violations in the Boeing 737 MAX security certification process.

• April 16 2019

A preliminary report on the Ethiopian Airlines crash was released: the authors noted a mismatch in the readings of the angle of attack sensors and erroneous activation of the MCAS. Although the pilots of both flights complied with instructions from Boeing on actions in such situations, they could not regain control and save the liner.

• 5 May 2019

Boeing has officially recognized that knew about the problemsthat could affect the situation in the 737 MAX disasters, back in the 2017 year. As it turned out, even before the start of deliveries of airliners, Boeing engineers in the company's internal report warned that the new software could cause problems in managing the aircraft.

The default angle of attack sensors should be connected to a separate display panel, but the company decided that it would be installed for extra money and only at the request of the airline purchasing the aircraft. Therefore, if the company does not install an indicator, then there will be nowhere to transmit data from the angle of attack sensor, and the liner’s automation will not be able to inform the pilots about the inconsistency of the sensor readings.

On the subject: Trump ordered to ban flights of Boeing 737 MAX in the US

Although, according to internal requirements, this warning should be displayed on the main display, the company’s expert commission decided that the absence of signals without an additional display “does not adversely affect the operation or safety of the aircraft.” The problem was intended to be fixed in the future, but senior management at the company, Boeing claims, was not aware of it before the Lion Air crash.

On the crashed planes, there was just a mismatch of the sensor readings, but there were no additional displays. It is not known if this warning would help pilots then, but now the pilot information system in the 737 MAX will be redesigned, and the warning output can be configured for free.

• 16 May 2019

Boeing said it has completed the development of an 737 MAX software update that addresses problems with sensors and the MCAS system. The system, as expected, will now behave less aggressively and activate only according to the readings of both angle of attack sensors.

• 26 2019 June

The American Aviation Agency (FAA) had new questions for Boeing about the security of the 737 MAX: the company was ordered to fix problems with another software update and, possibly, remake the aircraft software at an even deeper level.

• July 3 2019

Boeing has promised to send 100 millions of dollars to help families and cities affected by disasters.

• 13 September 2019

Six months from the entry into force of the global 737 MAX flight ban. The prospects for these planes returning to the sky remain vague.

The head of Boeing Corporation, Dennis Mühlenburg, hopes that this will happen around November, while the ban may be lifted simultaneously in different countries. The situation around the aircraft, he called "the real defining moment for the Boeing."

On the subject: Shock: the pilots were just a short online course on managing Boeing 737 Max 8

Фото: Depositphotos

What does this mean for passengers

For passengers, the “landing” of all 737 MAXs resulted in the cancellation of thousands of flights and route changes. For example, American Airlines cancels about 115 flights per day; the company suspended operations on one of the routes between Auckland and Dallas. Southwest closed 13 direct routes, Norwegian closed six routes between Ireland and the United States with Canada. FlyDubai had to postpone the opening of a flight to Budapest.

But we are not talking about a large-scale crisis: only 2% of approximately 26 000 commercial passenger aircraft do not fly. But those airlines that relied on 737 MAX for new routes or were planning to renew their aging fleet, were in a difficult position.

Airlines have no idea when the 737 MAX will be back in service: large American carriers expect this to happen no earlier than December of the 2019 year: before this month, they excluded the aircraft from their flight schedules. However, the deadlines have already been shifted several times, and some airlines, such as Air Canada and Southwest Airlines, do not wait for the resolution of the problem with the 737 MAX before the start of the 2020 year.

At the same time, about 20% of the people polled in the USA categorically stated that they would no longer fly this model, another about 40% agreed to buy less convenient flights and more expensive tickets to avoid flights on the 737 MAX.

What does this mean for the company?

The problems with the 737 MAX are a major challenge for Boeing, a corporation that has called the jet the fastest-selling aircraft in its history.

The importance of the Boeing 737 family as a whole can hardly be overestimated: according to company estimates, since 1965 of the year it has built 10560 aircraft of this model. Together with the Airbus A320 family (8612 units), they make up about two-thirds of the global civil aviation fleet.

The remaining third is for larger long-range aircraft like Boeing 747 / 777 / 787 and Airbus 330 / 340 / 350 / 380 (4520 units), as well as 2710 units of small regional airliners - for example, manufactured by CRJ (Airbus) and Embraer (Boeing).

After stopping flights, Boeing at 20% reduced the production rate of 737 MAX, and due to the ban on flights, liners that are not yet available to customers are stored in the manufacturer’s car parks.

Goldman Sachs analyst Noah Poponak estimated that the 737 MAX project brings Boeing up to a third of all revenue. Boeing shares since March fell by almost 18%. In the last quarter, the corporation announced a record $ 2,9 billion loss, mainly related to the problems of 737 MAX.

Airlines are expecting compensation from Boeing, and some, like the Saudi flyadeal, are refusing orders placed earlier: in all, the corporation was supposed to deliver almost 5000 aircraft of the 737 MAX series.

On the subject: Shocking confession: Boeing knew about the 737 MAX malfunction a year before the airliner's first crash

Фото: Depositphotos

What does this mean for the industry

In addition to the obvious advantages for the main and only serious competitor, Airbus, problems with the 737 MAX have caused a crisis of confidence in American aircraft certification systems. As it turned out, the American regulator allowed too many Boeing liberties in the security certification process.

In early September, one of the main Boeing test pilots in the 737 MAX certification case refused to provide the US Department of Justice with the necessary documents on the plane, citing the fifth amendment to the Constitution - it prohibits coercing people to testify against themselves.

All this does not promote trust between regulators in different countries and unions. If earlier, for example, the European aviation authorities almost automatically allowed flights of aircraft recognized in the USA as safe, then after the 737 MAX this may change, and Boeing will have to convince each of the regulators around the world separately.

The European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has already stated that it is not satisfied with the solution proposed by Boeing to correct errors in the 737 MAX and will put forward separate requirements for companies, possibly even more stringent than in the United States, before issuing a new type of flight permit to aircraft of this type.

It is also not known how the issue of 737 MAX flights will be resolved if it is recognized as safe in some regions and not in others.

It is not clear how the changes will affect the mandatory retraining of pilots. The ability of pilots to quickly transfer from the “old” 737 to the 737 MAX without extensive training was called one of the advantages of the new airliner, but now regulators may require airlines and Boeing to take a much longer, more thorough and expensive approach to retrain pilots on the 737 MAX.

Read also on ForumDaily:

Hundreds of pilots sue Boeing over 737 MAX issues

Shocking confession: Boeing knew about the 737 MAX malfunction a year before the airliner's first crash

Boeing 737 MAX found new security issues.

Passenger Boeing with 189 passengers fell into the sea

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