The calm before the storm: what threatens the quietest Atlantic hurricane season in 37 years

If you thought the current hurricane season was unusually quiet, you're right: the last time that there were no storms with names in the Atlantic between August 15 and August 20 was 1982, Phil Klotsbach, a meteorologist at the University of Colorado, said.

Фото: Depositphotos

Could this be the calm before the storm?

History says yes: over the years from August 20 to September 11, the Atlantic saw the sharpest surge in the activity of tropical systems with names, writes USA Today with reference to AccuWeather.

According to the latest hurricane forecast published by 19 on August, the rest of the month favors a quiet picture in the Atlantic, including the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico.

"Wind shear in the Atlantic Basin over the last few weeks has been quite significant and is part of the reason we haven't seen tropical storm development in the Atlantic Basin since mid-July after Barry," AccuWeather expert Dan Kottlowski reports.

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Wind shear—strong winds at higher levels of the atmosphere—can tear apart developing storms.

“Long-range forecasts show a less significant shift, but it is still enough to cause problems with westward-moving tropical waves or disturbances over the next week,” Kottlowski said.

Vast areas of dry air and dust from Africa also hold back rain and thunderstorms in the Atlantic.

All this is irrelevant for the Pacific Ocean, where four hurricanes formed. The National Hurricane Center gives a couple of Pacific meteorological systems a good chance of turning into tropical storms over the next five days, one of which this week rains in parts of Guatemala and Mexico.

Pacific hurricanes rarely have a direct impact on the mainland.

The only hurricane that formed this year in the Atlantic was Hurricane Barry, which hit Louisiana in July.

“It’s quite common to only have one hurricane late in the season,” Klotzbach said. - This happens about half the time. In fact, there are often no hurricanes until August 19th—the last time this happened was in 2015.”

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As for September, "not only are conditions expected to become much more favorable for tropical storm formation, but they could also lead to multiple instances of more than one named system rotating simultaneously in the Atlantic Basin, as well as a late and strong finish to the season," - Kottlowski warned.

In general, five to nine hurricanes are expected to form in the Atlantic Basin, according to a forecast released this month by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

According to AccuWeather, the most devastating hurricanes in the US occurred in September and October. In September 2018, Hurricane Florence killed 53 people and caused 24 billion dollars in damage. A month later, Hurricane Michael killed 49 people and caused 25 billions of dollars in damage.

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