There have not been such floods for 18 years: dangerous bad weather is raging in the northeastern United States

A typical autumn storm will lead to some uncommon flooding over extended stretches of the eastern United States this weekend (October 30-31). Moderate to large coastal floods are expected, as a result of which some streets may be closed, possibly even factories being closed. The Washington Post.

The anticipated flooding is arguably the worst since 2003, when Hurricane Isabelle hit the Atlantic. This may be due to a combination of onshore flow, astronomically high “royal tides” and the progressively worsening effects of sea level rise caused by anthropogenic climate change.

Coastal flood warnings extend from Virginia to New Jersey, including the entire Delmarva Peninsula and the shores of the Chesapeake Bay. The flood will be remarkable both for its extraordinary intensity and for its duration. The water level is expected to start dropping on Sunday morning, October 31st.

Showers and gusty winds

Modeling the progress of the storm predicts heavy rainfall and gusty winds in the southeast, the storm itself will gradually move northward.

Wind speeds can reach up to 50 miles (80 km) per hour in coastal areas and 30-40 miles (48-64 km) per hour on land inland.

Total rainfall of 1 to 1,5 inches (2,5-3,8 cm) is possible in most areas, and in some localized locations rainfall will approach 2 inches (5 cm).

On the subject: NASA warns: 15 years from now, it will be almost impossible to live in coastal cities of the USA due to constant floods

The storm will gradually fade as it travels north through the Appalachians, but continued winds will pose a flood threat until Sunday morning, October 31. The storm could even bring the highest water levels seen in Delaware Bay and break records for other floods associated with past hurricanes or winter storms. This is an important reminder that storms can be problematic even if they don't have a name.

Possibly dangerous flood

The National Meteorological Service predicts that the water level in Delaware Bay near Reedy Point will reach 9,5 feet (2,8 m), corresponding to the "big" flood stage.

Wild that this no-name storm will likely break the all-time highest water level ever recorded on the Delaware Bay tonight. Higher than Hurricane Sandy 9 yrs ago today & higher than the historic Nor'easter in April 2011. pic.twitter.com/Bu9KVPeP6O

- Bill Karins (@BillKarins) October 29, 2021

It will be almost three inches higher than its previous peak at 9,24 feet (2,81 m) on April 16, 2011.

It happened during a severe spring storm that hit the Carolina with a hail of tornadoes, causing severe weather and coastal flooding in the Washington area.

“Flooding may become severe enough to cause some structural damage along with roadway flooding near tidal streams,” wrote the National Weather Service in Mount Holly, New Jersey. “Some areas may become isolated due to flood waters.”

Meteorologists note that the biggest floods will occur on Saturday, October 30, in the evening. Especially in the Chesapeake Bay, where officials are handing out sandbags to help coastal residents protect vulnerable property and infrastructure.

The forecast water level for Annapolis "will be five feet," said Connor Belak, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Sterling, Virginia, which serves the greater Baltimore-Washington region. “The only two higher readings were 1,5 feet (7,16 m) from Isabel on September 2,1, 19 and 2003 feet (6,17 m) on August 1,8, 23.”

Report from Dock Street at 9am. High tide is at noon. pic.twitter.com/GdkyiP6I2j

- CityofAnnapolis (@CityofAnnapolis) October 29, 2021

Growing impact

Belak states that in St. Mary and Calvert counties in Maryland, "dozens of roads are closed, and there are many cases of houses and basements flooded with water."

These same areas, along with the Atlantic coast of Cape May in New Jersey and the beaches of Delaware, are also under high wind warning.

Some of the tributaries flowing into the ocean and various bays will also be prone to flooding as onshore winds raise water and impede drainage.

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The Delaware River in Philadelphia may experience severe flooding at high tide for a time.

Significant flooding ongoing in Colton Point, MD. Sea wall is being overtopped. Boardwalk and pier destroyed. Locals saying water is highest in a decade #mdwx #lwxspotter #flooding @NWS_BaltWash pic.twitter.com/x4y5GG7jhB

- Peter Forister??? (@forecaster25) October 29, 2021

Alarming climate trend

Alexandria, Virginia, suffers from regular coastal flooding in the area where King Street meets the tidal Potomac River. This is all because of the royal tide. Royal Tide occurs when the Moon is closest to Earth in its orbit. It is often intensified in autumn and winter due to prevailing winds pushing water ashore due to the location of key large-scale weather elements.

Currently, coastal cities often experience two or three of these major events per year, and rising sea levels due to anthropogenic climate change are further exacerbating the situation. For example, Charleston has regular tidal floods, and Miami has more than 1996 times the number of floods since 12.

From 2018 to 2000, the frequency of floods in the Mid Atlantic doubled from an average of three days a year to an average of six, according to a 2015 NOAA report.

That the Mid Atlantic is preparing for severe flooding due to a small storm is another fact that illustrates an irreversible trend that will only become more destructive and costly over time.

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