NASA warns: 15 years from now, it will be almost impossible to live in coastal cities of the USA due to constant floods

Flooding during high tides has become a common problem in many cities along the Atlantic Ocean and the US Gulf of Mexico. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported a total of more than 600 such floods in 2019. However, from the mid-2030s (almost 15 years later), the simultaneous rise in sea level with the lunar cycle will lead to a sharp increase in the number of floods in coastal cities across the United States. This conclusion is made thanks to the first study that takes into account all known oceanic and astronomical causes of flooding, writes NASA.

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A new study, led by members of NASA's Sea Level Change Science Group, shows that tides will be more likely to exceed known flood thresholds across the country. Moreover, sometimes there will be several floods per month, or even longer, depending on the position of the Moon, Earth and the Sun. When the Moon and Earth align in a certain way with each other and with the Sun, the resulting gravitational pull and the corresponding ocean response can cause flooding every day or two.

“Low-lying areas near sea level are increasingly at risk and suffering from increased flooding, and the situation will only get worse,” said NASA Administrator Bill Nelson. “The combination of the Moon’s gravitational pull, rising sea levels and climate change will only worsen coastal flooding around the world going forward.”

“The impact will be cumulative over time,” said Phil Thompson, an assistant professor at the University of Hawaii and lead author of the new study.

Because such floods involve little water compared to hurricane storm surges, Thompson argues, there is a tendency to view them as less of a problem overall.

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“But if they happen 10 or 15 times a month, companies will not be able to continue their activities, people will lose their jobs. And the drainage of cesspools will become a public health problem,” he said.

Why would cities on coastlines so widely separated begin to experience higher rates of flooding almost simultaneously? The main reason is the regular wobble of the Moon's orbit, which takes 18,6 years to complete. There is nothing new or dangerous about hesitation. It was first reported in 1728. What's new is how one of the effects of the moon's fluctuating gravitational pull (the main cause of Earth's tides) will combine with rising sea levels resulting from a warming planet.

In the first half of the lunar cycle, which lasts 18,6 years, the regular daily tides on Earth are suppressed: high tides are below normal and low tides are above normal. In the second, the tides intensify: they become higher, and the low tides become lower. Rising sea levels push tides in only one direction - higher. Thus, one half of the 18,6-year lunar cycle counteracts the effect of rising sea levels during high tides, while the other half enhances the effect.

The moon is now in a period of increasing tides. However, along most of the coast of the United States, sea levels have not risen so much that, even with this lunar assistance, tides regularly exceed the flooding thresholds.

The next time the cycle intensifies again, in the mid-2030s, things will be different. Global sea level rise will continue for another decade. Higher water levels, exacerbated by the lunar cycle, will cause a spike in flooding on nearly all coasts of the US mainland, Hawaii and Guam. Only the far northern coastlines, including the coast of Alaska, will be relatively safe for another decade or longer, because these parts of the land are expanding due to long-term geological processes.

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Researchers examined 89 tide gauge points in every coastal state in the United States except Alaska and found these tipping points in the number of floods. They created a new statistical framework that displays widely used sea level rise scenarios and NOAA flood thresholds, the number of times these thresholds have been exceeded annually, astronomical cycles, and statistical representations of other processes such as El Niño events known to , affect hot flashes. They predicted results until 2080.

Ben Hamlington is a co-author of the article and is also the NASA Team Leader for Sea Level Change. He notes that the results of the new study are a vital resource for coastal city planners who can focus on preparing for extreme events rather than larger floods.

“From a planning perspective, it's important to know when we're going to see increased flooding,” Hamlington said. “Understanding when there might be more severe flooding in an area is useful information.”

Thompson's flood control tool already exists on NASA. It is a resource for both decision makers and the general public. The flood tool will be updated in the near future based on the results of this study.

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