9 chances out of 10: Biden predicted to beat Trump in 2020 presidential election
Joe Biden will win the US presidential election with a 91% chance (9 out of 10), while the current American leader Donald Trump has only an 8% chance of being re-elected (1 in 10). Writes about it "New Time".
As of July 27, this is evidenced by the predictive model of The Economist magazine, which is updated daily. It takes into account not only the data of opinion polls, but also the economic and demographic situation in individual US states. The model was developed with the participation of Andrew Gelman and Merlin Heidemanns, experts in statistical modeling and political science at Columbia University. The Economist is using a similar method for the first time to calculate the outcome of the 2020 elections in the United States - both as a whole and separately in each state. The magazine describes in detail how the model works and even provides an opportunity to get acquainted with its code.
What will be the outcome of the 2020 US presidential election - detailed forecast
The Economist's model predicts that Democrat Joe Biden is 99% likely to garner the majority of American voters (over 19 out of 20). The current President of the United States, Donald Trump, has less than a 1% chance of winning the majority of votes (less than 1 in 20).
However, as you know, the American model of presidential elections does not guarantee victory to the candidate with the most votes (Hillary Clinton was supported by almost 2016 million more people in 3 than Trump, but she lost the election) - the distribution of the Electoral College votes is crucial.
According to the forecast of The Economist, in 2020 Biden has every chance of winning this competition: the magazine estimates that he will collect 250-415 electoral votes (270 to win), while Trump - about 123-288 votes. Thus, the next president of the United States is likely to be Biden (91% probability or 9 out of 10), while Trump is much less likely (8% or 1 in 10).
Currently, if the elections were held on July 26, Biden would have received 346 electoral votes, and Trump - 192, according to the magazine's calculations.
The model also gives an idea of how the electoral votes will be distributed across individual states. Most likely, The Economist predicts, Biden wins in 25 states, Trump - in 20, and the voting result in another 5 states remains unpredictable (North Carolina, Arizona, Ohio, Georgia, Iowa). The forecast also includes Texas (Trump is more likely to win) and Florida (Biden is more likely to win) as "dubious" states, in which each of the candidates can still compete for victory.
Almost guaranteed (99% probability) Biden wins in California, Oregon, Illinois, Massachusetts, Vermont, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, New York, Maryland, Rhode Island, as well as Washington State and Washington D.C. ...
Trump is likely to win in Alabama, Tennessee, West Virginia, Kentucky, Arkansas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, South and North Dakota, Wyoming, Utah, and Idaho.
In addition, The Economist's model averages the poll data, adjusts it with the necessary adjustments for other factors (difference in sample size, etc.) to predict the distribution of votes on election day.
According to this forecast, Biden will eventually collect 53,9% of the American vote (now he would have collected 54,2%), and Trump - 46,1% (now - 45,8%).
There are less than 3 days left until voting day on November 2020, 100.
In recent weeks, an electoral chasm has formed between Trump and Biden. 40% of voters are ready to vote for the incumbent head of the White House, while 55% are ready to vote for his opponent, recent polls show.
Although the figures cited by various sociological services differ slightly, seven of the latest nine polls show former US Vice President Biden ahead of Trump by 10 points or more.
The current gap between candidates for the main post in the United States is very significant - the last time this was recorded during the 1992 presidential race.
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