9 chances out of 10: Biden predicted to beat Trump in 2020 presidential election

Joe Biden will win the US presidential election with a 91% chance (9 out of 10), while the current American leader Donald Trump has only an 8% chance of being re-elected (1 in 10). Writes about it "New Time".

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This is evidenced by The Economist's forecast model as of July 27, which is updated daily. It takes into account not only data from sociological surveys, but also the economic and demographic situation in individual US states. The model was developed with the participation of Andrew Gelman and Merlin Heidemanns, specialists in statistical modeling and political science at Columbia University. The Economist is using a similar method for the first time to calculate the result of the 2020 elections in the United States - both as a whole and separately in each state. The magazine describes in detail how the model works and even provides an opportunity to familiarize yourself with its code.

What will be the result of the 2020 US presidential election - detailed forecast

The Economist's model predicts that Democrat Joe Biden is 99% likely to garner the majority of American voters (over 19 out of 20). The current President of the United States, Donald Trump, has less than a 1% chance of winning the majority of votes (less than 1 in 20).

However, as is known, the American model of presidential elections does not guarantee victory for the candidate who receives the most votes (Hillary Clinton in 2016 was supported by almost 3 million more people than Trump, but she lost the election) - the distribution of Electoral College votes is decisive.

According to The Economist's forecast, Biden has every chance of winning this contest in 2020: the magazine estimates that he will collect 250-415 electoral votes (270 are needed to win), while Trump - about 123-288 votes. Thus, Biden is most likely to become the next US president (91% probability or 9 out of 10), while Trump has a much lower chance (8% or 1 out of 10).

Currently, if the election were held on July 26, Biden would win 346 electoral votes and Trump 192, the magazine's calculations show.

The model also provides insight into how individual states' electoral votes will be distributed. Most likely, The Economist predicts, Biden will win in 25 states, Trump will win in 20, and the voting results in another 5 states remain unpredictable (North Carolina, Arizona, Ohio, Georgia, Iowa). The forecast also includes Texas (Trump is more likely to win) and Florida (Biden is more likely to win) as “dubious” states, in which each of the candidates can still compete for victory.

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Almost guaranteed (99% probability) Biden wins in California, Oregon, Illinois, Massachusetts, Vermont, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, New York, Maryland, Rhode Island, as well as Washington State and Washington D.C. ...

Trump is likely to win in Alabama, Tennessee, West Virginia, Kentucky, Arkansas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, South and North Dakota, Wyoming, Utah, and Idaho.

In addition, The Economist's model averages the poll data, adjusts it with the necessary adjustments for other factors (difference in sample size, etc.) to predict the distribution of votes on election day.

According to this forecast, Biden will eventually receive 53,9% of the American vote (he would now receive 54,2%), and Trump - 46,1% (now 45,8%).

There are less than 3 days left until voting day on November 2020, 100.

In recent weeks, an electoral gap has formed between Trump and Biden. 40% of voters are ready to vote for the current head of the White House, while 55% are ready to vote for his opponent, recent polls show.

Although the figures cited by various sociological services differ slightly, seven of the latest nine polls show former US Vice President Biden ahead of Trump by 10 points or more.

The current gap between candidates for the top job in the United States is very significant - the last time this was recorded was during the 1992 presidential race.

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