Elections in the USA and Israel

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Labor Day is approaching, one of the key points of the presidential campaigns in the United States, and I thought that we should analyze what Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump say - and what we can assume - on the two most important international policy issues concerning Israel: Iran and the Palestinians .

In addition, it is worth considering the recent diplomatic achievements of Prime Minister Netanyahu in the area of ​​efforts to deepen and expand Israel’s relations, both in the region and in the world.

But before proceeding, I want to draw attention to the complications after the unsuccessful coup in Turkey and the purges that followed it, since these are the most important events in the Middle East over the past weeks that can further destabilize the region.

Dangerous move Turkey

A failed coup in Turkey will have long-term consequences not only for the country itself - insurrection and its consequences, probably put a fat point under Atatürk’s many-year secular vision, at least in the short term, but also for the balance of power in the entire Middle East region. In any case, Kaput’s fantasies of President Erdogan’s revival of the Ottoman heritage of Turkey came, although his attempts to create an Islamic dictatorship remain relevant, which threatens further exacerbations in the region.

Almost on all fronts the purges of Erdogan threaten stability. Given the growing tensions between Ankara on the one hand and Washington and Brussels on the other, it remains unclear whether Erdogan will continue to assist the EU in managing the flow of refugees from the Middle East who are seeking refuge in Europe and whether Turkey will remain a real member of NATO ( Turkey ranks second after the USA in NATO in terms of the size of the army).

Erdogan’s reconciliation with Putin may also indicate a strategic decision to move away from the West and move closer to Russia. A firm decision to take this path could jeopardize the US influence in the region, although there are options for changing the current US use of the Turkish military base at Incirlik. More important will be the loss of Turkey as a symbol of the ability of the West to partner with a modern democratic Muslim country, not to mention the role of Ankara as a bridge to the East. A few weeks after the failed coup, Turkey is in a state of shock and uncertainty, but important decisions are already looming on the horizon that will affect the whole world.

In the meantime, relations between Turkey and other leading Sunni regimes in the region — Saudi Arabia and Egypt — have turned from bad to terrible. These 3 countries were supposed to unite Sunni efforts and block regional hegemonic ambitions of the Shiite camp led by Iran. But the joy that filled Cairo and Riyadh’s reaction to the news of the coup (as well as their apparent disappointment after its failure), combined with Iran’s decision to support Erdogan, brought Ankara closer to Tehran, split the Sunni camp and could also undermine efforts to contain Iran and his allies in the region.

And finally, Erdogan’s actions against the military after the coup undoubtedly undermined the army’s ability to counter the growing threat of terror in the country, as evidenced by the recent attack by ISIL on Istanbul International Airport.

At present, there are no signs that Turkey’s rapprochement with Israel will fall victim to recent events, but the leadership of Israel, no doubt, is closely monitoring the situation.

New Netanyahu foreign policy strategy

A number of successful diplomatic initiatives by the Prime Minister show that Israel has embarked on a more aggressive strategy to improve relations both at the regional and global levels. Last year, Netanyahu improved coordination with Russia, expanded relations in the Eastern Mediterranean with Cyprus and Greece, significantly strengthened Israel’s alliance with Egypt, continued to develop quiet cooperation with the Persian Gulf states, renewed diplomatic and trade relations with Turkey and expanded relations in Africa. Given the ongoing stalemate on the Palestinians and the growing pressure from the EU and the United States on this issue, these are the impressive achievements of a more confident government.

With recent efforts to repair relations between Israel and developing countries, Netanyahu seeks to weaken the involuntary majority arrayed against Israel in international institutions. It is in this context that Netanyahu’s recent visit to Africa and his announcement of intentions should be viewed: a) to visit the continent again before the end of this year, next time to West African countries; b) initiate a similar visit to Latin America in the near future. Netanyahu hopes that by renewing and strengthening bilateral relations with dozens of countries in Africa and Latin America, he can persuade them not to automatically vote against Israel in bodies such as the UN General Assembly, the Security Council and UNESCO.

The Prime Minister, of course, understands that this requires not one-day steps, but a process that can take decades. But he seems to have decided in the coming years to push Israel onto a new diplomatic path. It is high time.

Israel and the USA

Despite the fact that most of the news headlines from the United States relate to the presidential race, the most important political issue in Washington today regarding Israel has nothing to do with elections. Instead, Israel and the United States are participating in active negotiations on a new military assistance agreement for the next 10 years.

Until recently, Netanyahu refrained from agreeing on a treaty of assistance and even threatened not to sign it, waiting for the new president in the hope of getting what he wanted on three key points.

First, Netanyahu wanted almost $50 billion over 10 years, while the Obama administration only agreed to $40 billion. Second, Netanyahu wanted to keep in place the current arrangement under which Israel can spend up to 25% of its aid domestically, rather than being required to buy most of it from American defense companies.

Finally, Netanyahu wanted Israel to have the right to appeal to Congress for additional funds, beyond the contract, if circumstances so require. Such an opportunity has been in effect for the past decade, which has allowed Israel to receive special funding for the needs of missile defense. The Obama administration is insisting that Israel be denied access to Congress directly for additional assistance.

Ultimately, although Netanyahu did not succeed in changing the administration’s position on each of these issues, he instructed his team to try and conclude and sign an agreement on assistance “as soon as possible”, deciding that waiting for the next administration (Trump or Clinton does not matter) would not give the best results. The exact final terms of the agreement are still under discussion, and each side uses all the political levers available to it.

Concluding an aid agreement for the next 10 years under the Obama administration would reaffirm America's commitment to supporting Israel's security through the next president's term and beyond. However, the diplomatic arena will continue to be fraught with challenges on many fronts, and two key issues - Iran and the Palestinians - deserve continued attention.

At first glance, there appear to be significant differences between Trump and Clinton on the Iran issue. Trump said early in his speech to AIPAC (American Israel Public Affairs Committee) last spring that “reversing the disastrous Iran deal is his number one priority.”

Clinton, who presided over an effective sanctions regime that brought Iran to the negotiating table, has been adamant about using whatever means necessary to force Iran to implement the agreements in full. “If elected, Iran's leaders will have no doubt that at any sign of violation of their commitment not to seek, develop, or purchase nuclear weapons, the United States will act to stop it, and, if necessary, we will do so by force.” " Clinton said.

However, as Trump continued his speech, the discrepancy between him and Clinton began to narrow. As soon as he began to go into the details of his proposed Iran policy, Trump said that “at the very least, we must ensure that the conditions of the previous deal are met so that Iran bears full responsibility. And we will ensure this observance in a way that no one has ever provided, the people, trust me. ”

As for the Palestinians, both presidential candidates have so far stated that violence and incitement from the Palestinian side must cease immediately, and that the only way to resolve this conflict is through direct negotiations.

In the early stages of his campaign, Trump boasted of his “neutral” stance on key issues in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Later, however, Trump abandoned neutrality and took a position on the controversial issue of settlement construction. In an interview with the Daily Mail, he said: “I don’t think there is a need to take a break,” and added, “I think Israel should continue. They have to keep moving forward."

In turn, Clinton, adhering to the longstanding tradition of the bipartisan opposition on this issue, said in her speech to AIPAS that “everyone should fulfill their role, avoiding harmful actions, including with regard to settlements”.

Nevertheless, each candidate praises himself in front of the American Jewish community, arguing that only if he wins the election, Israel will be able to count on the United States as a reliable ally.

In Israel, Netanyahu never hid his commitment to the Republican party, but this does not necessarily mean a preference for Donald Trump. Trump’s lack of international experience can be seen by the Prime Minister as an opportunity, and he may also be concerned that Trump will be so unpredictable as he promised. Even if Netanyahu is worried about another Democrat in the Oval Office, he knows that if Clinton becomes president, she will come with credentials, established relations and a commitment to Israel, which have already passed durability tests.

Jack Rosen,
President of the American Jewish Congress

Below we offer the original material in English.

Please find below the AJCongress Monthly Middle East report for August.
It is a clear idea that this is a matter of course: Iran and the Palestinians.

In addition, it’s worth examining Prime Minister Netanyahu’s recent diplomatic successes as he intensifies his relations with countries.

But he didn’t want to keep up with the region.

Turkey takes a dangerous turn

If you are a woman, he will not be able to have a lot of time. of power in the broader Middle East. It’s true that it’sn’t been up to the rule of law.

Erdogan's purge has threatened stability. It is clear that there will be a tendency to Turkey has the second-largest army after the US.

Signing a strategic decision to move away from the West. It was not a problem for the United States to establish its power and influence in the region. Ankara plays with his neck. He didn’t have to know the world.

Meanwhile, there has been a break from bad to worse. These three countries were supposed to be led by Iran. It can be noted that it was a bit closer to Tehran, This is where the effort is to contain Iran and its proxies in the region.

Finally, he added that he hadn’t been able to answer the question.

To date, there’s no reason for the situation to be concerned. Netanyahu's new foreign policy strategy.

Netanyahu's new foreign policy strategy

It has been embraced by the government that it has been the most aggressive strategy to improve its relations. There has been a significant improvement in the development of a global economic development program. Africa. This is an impressive achievement for the more confident government.

He also has been looking at how to reduce the number of jerk livestock. You can’t see what you’re talking about. Latin America in the near future. There are no limits on the number of people involved in this case.

It can be a little bit more effort. But he appears to be one long overdue.

Israel and the US elections

During the presidential race, it was a very important question. 10-year military assistance agreement.

Until recently, he was underlined.

First, the Netanyahu administration has agreed to agree to $ 50 billion. Secondly, it wasn’t been the case that they wanted to pay attention.

Finally, it’s possible to make a decision on how to make a decision. This feature has been in place, permitting funding for missile defense needs. It has been inspected by Israel.

It was not possible to make up your minds about it. would it Trump or Clinton) might not produce better results. It can apply.

Heyou isn’t been in the United States. However, it will be a challenge.

There is a difference between Trump and Clinton on Iran. AIPAC speech was said last spring that his “number one priority is to dismantle the disastrous deal with Iran.”

Clinton, having been led to the need to ensure that he is in a state of peace. For example, it’s clear that they’re if necessary. ”

However, the gaps seemed to be narrow. If you begin to talk about it, Iran totally accountable. And I’m not a contractor, I believe. ”

It is a question that has been ratified by the direct negotiations of the Palestinians.

Israeli-Palestinian conflict. However, Trump later abandoned the situation of settlement construction. In an interview, he told the Daily Mail, “I don’t think there should be a pause.” Adding, “I think They have to keep moving forward. ”

It’s a speech that “It’s a speech,”

Still, it’s possible to meet the needs of the state.

In Israel, he hasn't been able to translate into a preference for Donald Trump. It can be seen as the unpredictable as it has been. Even if you’re talking about what you’ve been clinging to.

I hope you’re enjoying your summer.
Best Regards,
Jack rosen

See also:

How have relations between Israel and Turkey changed after the coup attempt

Are Israel and Saudi Arabia helpful friends and enemies?

How to repatriate to Israel

Supernovae Israelis: Come and Succeed

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