Are Israel and Saudi Arabia helpful friends and enemies?

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Unlike many Arab republics, not a single Arab monarchy fell due to the “Arab Spring”, and only one, Bahrain, experienced something like a political crisis that could stir up the regime. Nevertheless, these monarchies receive blows from geopolitical forces, which are now very unfavorable to their stability, and Saudi Arabia is the most.

Three independent factors, taken together, have led to what may be one of the biggest problems for the stability of Saudi Arabia in the entire history of the kingdom. Firstly, the nuclear agreement on Iran, which strengthened the Shiite axis in the region and Saudi Arabia’s concern about Iran’s plans for hegemony in the region; secondly, the US energy independence, which undermined the importance of Riyadh in Washington; and thirdly, a sharp drop in the price of oil (and gas), which had a devastating effect on the country's income. However, it is worth noting that Saudi Arabia is partly responsible for oil sickness because of its perseverance to maintain high oil production, partly to harm its enemy and rival in the oil market - Iran.

These trends and events have forced the Saudis - the ruling royal family of Saudi Arabia - to reconsider their traditional policy at home and abroad, as shown by the last few weeks.

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On the domestic front, low oil prices caused a budget deficit of 100 billions of dollars. This huge amount of deficit has already forced the kingdom to cut subsidies and get the first foreign loan in a decade. As citizens of Saudi Arabia, who have previously enjoyed a good job, begin to face uncertainty, people's moods change dramatically.

For this reason, Saudi Arabia has introduced an expansive economic reform program called Vision-2030, aimed at changing the country's economy so that it can survive in times of cheap oil. At the moment, almost 75% of the budget Saudi Arabia receives from the sale of oil, but the new reform aims to stop Saudi dependence on oil revenues for four years. The plan also envisages the development of the private sector in Saudi Arabia, with growth from 40 to 60% of GDP in 2030, as well as a decrease in unemployment and an increase in the number of working women.

Much of the plan depends on the privatization of state assets — most importantly, Saudi Aramco, the national oil company. According to the plan, Aramco will become a holding company, 5% of which will be listed on the stock exchanges of Riyadh and one of the foreign cities. Aramco costs from 2 to 3 trillions of dollars, which means that Riyadh can receive up to 150 billions from the initial public offering. Despite the fact that the Vision-2030 plan was mainly approved by financial analysts, many doubt that the time frame proposed by the plan is realistic.

Undoubtedly, the royal family understands that the success of economic reforms in the country will depend, at least in part, on changes in social and political attitudes throughout the kingdom. There are some signs of progress in this direction, albeit very gradual. For example, the situation with women's rights has improved recently, after the authorities allowed women to vote and take part in local elections at the end of last year, for the first time in the entire history of Saudi Arabia.

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The authorities also reduced some of the legal powers of Saudi men in relation to their female relatives, and only last month the cabinet deprived its often-criticized religious police of the right to arrest, urging them to act "gently and kindly" to enforce Islamic rules. According to the changes adopted by the cabinet, religious officers can no longer detain people. Instead, they must transmit information about the violators of the police or the anti-drug squad.

Whatever problems the kingdom faces inside the country, its external challenges are no less complex. And although President Obama’s visit to Riyadh last month was intended to testify that the two countries had returned to “their usual business,” the Saudis decided not to play ball.

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It didn't start very well when King Salman decided not to meet the American president at the airport, and coverage of Obama’s visit to the Saudi media, which criticized him mercilessly and attacked him for forgetting who his real allies in the region seemed to be Consciousness of the Saudis. In fact, US-Saudi relations are at the lowest point in many years. Since the US is no longer dependent on Saudi oil, it may be that Obama believes that Iran is a more attractive partner to deal with the Middle East, especially with regard to the future of Syria, Iraq and Yemen, as well as fighting ISIS.

This may explain the criticism of Obama by the Saudis in his recent interview for The Atlanticin which he criticized the kingdom for being “freeloaders” and accused of fomenting hostility between Sunnis and Shiites in the Middle East, thereby suggesting that Riyadh is somehow responsible for the unrest rocking the region from Iraq to Syria.

In the meantime, while Obama was in Saudi Arabia, US lawmakers continued to push forward an investigation to find out if Saudi officials were involved in the September 11 attacks. The Saudis, for their part, threatened that if Congress - and potentially the entire US justice system - continued to investigate the matter or aimed at Saudi assets as restitution for the families of the victims, Riyadh would strike back, taking its significant reserves from the US - potentially a heavy blow to the American economy.

Given the increasing distance between the United States and Saudi Arabia, as well as the imminent threat from Iran, the kingdom has no choice but to strengthen existing alliances in the region and begin to form new relations. In this perspective, King Salman’s visit to Cairo last month should be seen as the beginning of a renewed partnership between Saudi Arabia and Egypt, which also contains an interesting turn towards Israel.

King Salman’s visit to Cairo was crowned with the announcement that Egypt would transfer its maritime borders, with the result that the sovereignty of the two islands in the strategic passage of Tiran would be transferred to Saudi Arabia. However, in order to finalize this agreement, the two countries need the approval of Israel, since the transfer of sovereignty will affect the Israeli peace treaty with Egypt 1979 of the year. Fortunately for Saudi Arabia and Egypt, Jerusalem shares their feelings about the fact that Washington treats them scornfully under the Obama administration and that they must work together to overcome the loss of American support and fight the rising Shiite axis in the region. Thus, Jerusalem satisfied the request with great pleasure, and this includes direct and indirect contacts between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

The indirect entry of Saudi Arabia into the framework of the peace treaty between Israel and Egypt signifies a significant achievement in the development of relations between Israel and the Sunni camp under the leadership of Saudi Arabia. By transferring to Egypt the sovereignty of the two islands of Saudi Arabia and thanks to the assurances of the last Israel that its rights, in accordance with the peace treaty with Egypt, will not suffer as a result, the Saudis have successfully become silent partners of the Israeli-Egyptian treaty. Interestingly, Turkey, which is facing its own political and economic challenges under the iron rule of authoritarian President Erdogan, was also forced to improve relations with Israel.

Of course, any public recognition of diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel — direct or otherwise — most likely only exacerbates the evils of the kingdom, in which the current set of economic weakness, regional chaos and tensions with Washington is already the biggest threat to the Saudi monarchy the moment of its creation. However, if the kingdom carries out the necessary economic and social reforms and adheres to cautious foreign policy, there are good chances that it will successfully survive the current adversity.

One of the ways in which Saudi Arabia can try to overcome its economic upheavals and modernize the economy is to accept proposals from the reformer and deputy heir prince ibn Salman al Saud, known for his tough and active world outlook. Much of the responsibility for modernizing the kingdom fell on his shoulders, as he would soon rule his people. It is possible that some of the most progressive elements of reform - such as the right of women to vote and run for election - came out of the camp of Ibn Salman al Saud. It is also possible - and this is only a hypothesis - that the typically conservative and cautious tradition of Saudi Arabia is being supplanted by an ambitious and progressive young monarch. Only time will tell what role Ibn Salman will play in his kingdom.