The US believes that Russia may use a terrorist attack or a chemical attack as an excuse to attack Ukraine

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken during a meeting of the UN Security Council said that Russia could use a far-fetched pretext for full-scale aggression against Ukraine - a terrorist attack on Russian territory, the discovery of mass graves, shelling of civilians, or a real, even fake attack using chemical weapons. Writes about it with the BBC.

Photo: Shutterstock

“Russia could portray this event as genocide or ethnic cleansing,” Blinken warned.

Then, according to him, the Russian authorities will call an emergency meeting in a “theatrical way”, Russian missiles and bombs will hit targets in Ukraine, cyber attacks and communication blockage will begin.

“After that, Russian tanks and soldiers will begin to advance on key targets that have already been identified,” he added.

Blinken confirmed that Russia maintains a strong military presence near the border with Ukraine.

“The information we have clearly indicates that these forces, including ground forces, aircraft, ships, are preparing to launch an attack on Ukraine in the coming days,” the US Secretary of State said.

He warned that some groups of Ukrainians are a priority target for the Russian army.

“We have information that Russia will target certain groups of Ukrainians,” Blinken said.

In addition, according to him, the available information indicates that Kiev is one of the key targets.

Blinken stressed that the situation around Ukraine has an impact on the whole world, and the basic principles of order are under threat.

“We will provide a response with our allies that will be tough and decisive,” he warned of the consequences of the invasion.

Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden, during a press conference on February 18, expressed his conviction that “Putin has already decided to attack Ukraine,” in particular, the capital of the country, Kiev. According to Biden, the invasion is likely to take place in the coming days. The head of the United States refers to the data provided to him by American intelligence. At the same time, he said that the United States is open to diplomacy until "until the invasion begins."

Prior to this, Russia had warned the United States in writing about its readiness for "military-technical measures" due to non-compliance with its requirements and expelled a second person at the US Embassy in Moscow.

Diplomacy has a chance

In his speech, Blinken said that the path of diplomacy still remains open.

According to him, Russia can choose a different path while "there is still time."

Blinken proposed holding a meeting of the NATO-Russia Council and the OSCE Permanent Council in Europe in order to resolve tensions on Ukraine's borders "without conflict".

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These meetings, the secretary added, could pave the way for a "key leaders" summit to discuss security grievances.

“As leading diplomats, we are obliged to make every effort to achieve the success of diplomacy,” he said, referring to his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov. Blinken suggested that he meet next week in Europe.

According to Blinken, the United States is convinced that the implementation of the Minsk agreements is vital to ensure diplomatic progress. He believes the US will be relieved if its warnings of a Russian attack do not come true.

Russia warns of military measures

Moscow conveyed to US Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan the reaction to the US and NATO response regarding security guarantees, the Russian Foreign Ministry said.

After Sullivan's visit, it became known about expulsion of US Deputy Ambassador Bart Gorman from Russia.

US Embassy spokesman Jason Rebholz explained that Gorman was the second most important official at the US Embassy in Moscow after the ambassador and a key member of the embassy's senior leadership.

The Russian Foreign Ministry made public the text of the US response. It consists of several thematic blocks, the full text of the document was published by several Russian media. The official website of the Russian Foreign Ministry on February 17 stopped working in the evening, in the department itself this was explained by “poor quality work of technical services.”

The document notes that in its January response, "the American side did not give a constructive response to the basic elements of the draft treaty with the United States on security guarantees prepared by the Russian side."

Among them, Russia names the refusal to further expand NATO, the refusal of Ukraine and Georgia to join the Alliance and the refusal to create military bases in the post-Soviet space.

“The package nature of Russian proposals was ignored, from which “convenient” topics were deliberately chosen, which, in turn, were “perverted” in the direction of creating advantages for the United States and its allies,” the document says.

Moscow has expressed alarm at the growing US and NATO military activity right on Russia's borders.

“In the absence of the readiness of the American side to agree on strict, legally binding guarantees to ensure our security from the United States and its allies, Russia will be forced to respond, in particular by implementing measures of a military-technical nature,” we read further in the answer.

Military exercises

Russia announced large-scale exercises on February 19, which will include launches of ballistic and cruise missiles, writes with the BBC.

The strategic deterrence forces will be trained under the personal supervision of President Vladimir Putin. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman, noted that Putin would be watching the exercise from a "situation centre."

It became known about training and launches only now, but it was planned in advance to check the readiness of the military command, combat crews, crews of ships and missile carriers, weapons of strategic nuclear forces, Russia said.

Peskov stressed that training and test launches of ballistic missiles take place regularly and should not cause concern.

According to reports, units of the Military Space Forces, the Southern Military District, the Strategic Missile Forces, the Northern and Black Sea Fleets will participate in the exercises. The forces of Russia's nuclear triad will also be involved.

Joint military exercises between Russia and Belarus are due to end on February 20, with exercises in the Black Sea a day earlier.

The Russian Defense Ministry claims that it is withdrawing more tanks and other armored vehicles from areas near the Ukrainian borders. They reported that ten Su-24 fighters are planning to redeploy from the annexed Crimea to airfields in other regions.

On Tuesday, February 15, the Russian department announced that after the exercises, the troops of the Southern and Western military districts bordering Ukraine were returning to their places of permanent deployment.

And the next day, the Russian Defense Ministry posted a photo and video with the alleged withdrawal of part of the units of the Southern Military District.

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At first, these statements gave hope for a decrease in tension on the Ukrainian borders.

However, the US has said that Russia's claims to withdraw troops are "fake" and that an additional 7 troops have arrived at the border in recent days.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also speaks about this, assuring that he sees no signs of the retreat of Russian forces or de-escalation.

Ukraine also does not believe Russian assurances. President Volodymyr Zelensky said that the Ukrainian side does not fix the withdrawal of troops by Russia from the borders.

Invasion of Ukraine

The Russian Foreign Ministry characterizes information about a possible invasion of the territory of Ukraine as "an attempt to exert pressure and devalue Russia's proposals for security guarantees."

The annexation of Crimea in 2014 is named in the document as a consequence of a "coup d'état" in Ukraine, after which "Crimeans voted for reunification with Russia."

“If Ukraine is accepted into NATO, there will be a real threat that the regime in Kiev will try to “return” Crimea by force, drawing the United States and its allies into a direct armed conflict with Russia, with all the ensuing consequences,” the response says.

NATO open door

Russia has again criticized the "open door" principle allowing any European country to apply for membership in the Alliance.

“This policy is contrary to the basic commitments adopted within the framework of the CSCE/OSCE, primarily the commitment “not to strengthen one’s own security at the expense of the security of others,” the document says.

Withdrawal of troops from the border

Moscow's response notes that the United States and its allies have repeatedly demanded that Moscow withdraw troops from the Russian-Ukrainian border.

“We proceed from the fact that the deployment of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation on its territory does not and cannot affect the fundamental interests of the United States. We would like to remind you that there are no our forces on the territory of Ukraine,” the response says.

At the same time, Moscow accused the United States of circumventing the restrictions of the treaty on conventional forces in Europe and loosely interpreting the provision of the Russia-NATO Basic Act on the rejection of "additional permanent deployment of significant combat forces."

Warning from the UK Department of Defense

In a video posted on the official Twitter account, the British Ministry of Defense warned that a "significant number of civilians" would die if Russia decided to attack Ukraine. The ministry said, among other things, that they had not seen any evidence to support Russia's claim that its forces were withdrawing from the border region.

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The video outlines a number of reasons why Russian President Vladimir Putin would like to launch a military operation in Ukraine, including the belief that it is a "strategically important buffer zone" between Russia and NATO, as well as its cultural and historical ties.

“Russia does not accept Ukraine as an independent state. But it is still an independent state!” — noted in the video.

The British Ministry of Defense refers to intelligence data indicating that Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready for thousands of victims in order to achieve the goal. The official Twitter published a map of possible directions of Russian aggression against Ukraine.

The Defense Ministry ends with a message that Putin "can still choose peace" and diplomacy to de-escalate tensions.

As ForumDaily wrote earlier:

• Russia demands from NATO never expand east again, in particular, not to accept Ukraine into its ranks. USA and Alliance responded with disagreement to such demands.
• At the same time, even before the talks, Moscow began to gather its troops to the borders with Ukraine. According to the Ministry of Defense, about 130 thousand Russian militaryincluding military aviation. And in Belarus, military exercises with Russia are scheduled for February, and soldiers are already starting to arrive in the country.
• Ukrainian intelligence says that Russia is preparing for a possible attack on the east and south of Ukraine in January-February 2022. American intelligence (in accordance with anticipated scenario, shared by Bloomberg) believe that an attack on Ukraine could happen in three directions: from the occupied Crimea, Belarus and the Russian border.
• According to the United States, Russia may release fabricated video of attacks on people and then use it as a pretext to attack Ukraine.
• US officials believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to invade Ukraine, and the attack could happen very soon.
• The Russian ambassador to Sweden said that President Vladimir Putin doesn't care about sanctions, which the US and its allies are threatening to impose on Moscow if it invades Ukraine.
• Self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk "People's Republics" announced a mass evacuation of the population to Russia, allegedly because of the threat of attack from Ukraine.

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