There will be more hurricanes this season than expected: weather forecasters updated the forecast for the Atlantic

Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center have changed their forecast for the current Atlantic hurricane season. Instead of an activity level close to normal, we now have an activity level above normal. Writes about it NOAA.

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Forecasters believe that current ocean and atmospheric conditions, such as record high surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, are likely to balance the normally limiting atmospheric conditions associated with the ongoing El Niño phenomenon.

NOAA forecasters increased the chance of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60% (previously 30%). The chance of near-normal activity has dropped to 25%, down from 40% in the May forecast. The probability of a season below normal is only 15%.

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The forecast covers the entire six-month hurricane season ending November 30th. According to the update, 14-21 named storms (wind speeds of 39 miles (62,7 km) per hour or more) are expected, of which 6-11 can become hurricanes (wind speeds of 74 miles (119 km) per hour or more). Of these, 2-5 are likely to become severe hurricanes (wind speeds of 111 miles (178,6 km) per hour or more).

NOAA provides such ranges with 70% confidence—they include storms that have already formed this season.

The Atlantic Basin began an active hurricane season with five storms reaching at least tropical storm strength, including one hurricane. The average hurricane season has 14 named storms: seven of them become hurricanes, including three major ones.

“The main climate factors expected to influence Atlantic hurricane activity in 2023 are the ongoing El Niño and the warm phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, including record high surface water temperatures,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster at NOAA. “Given these factors, it will be an active season, so we encourage everyone to prepare now.”

El Niño conditions are currently underway: there is over a 95% chance that it will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter, according to the latest discussion by the Climate Prediction Center. El Niño usually results in atmospheric conditions that help reduce tropical activity during the Atlantic hurricane season. So far, these limiting conditions have evolved slowly, and climate scientists predict that the associated impacts that typically limit tropical cyclone activity may not be present for much of the remainder of the hurricane season.

Below normal wind shear forecast, slightly below normal Atlantic trade winds and near or above normal West African monsoon were also key factors in the updated seasonal forecast.

Hurricane Season Predictions

NOAA's hurricane predictions are forecasts of overall season activity, not landfalls. Storm landfall is typically the result of mesoscale weather patterns and is usually predictable within about one week after the storm makes landfall.

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“The National Weather Service is committed to providing timely and accurate forecasts to empower individuals, families and communities to take proactive action this hurricane season,” said Ken Graham, director of NOAA's National Weather Service. “New tools such as a new hurricane model, analysis and forecasting system, and the expansion of the National Hurricane Center's tropical weather forecast to seven days are examples of our commitment to expanding our forecasting capabilities and services.”

In June, NOAA deployed a new hurricane prediction model. The Hurricane Analysis and Forecasting System became operational on June 27 and will operate alongside existing models for the 2023 season before replacing them as NOAA's primary hurricane forecasting model.

NOAA is urging everyone in vulnerable areas to develop a well thought out hurricane contingency plan and to monitor official channels during this season.

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