White Christmas: in what states will Christmas weather resemble a winter fairy tale - ForumDaily
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White Christmas: in which states the weather in Christmas will resemble a winter fairy tale

If you want to see a snow-covered fairy tale from a holiday film outside the window, waking up on a Christmas morning, you should go to the north or the west of the USA, or choose a location located on a hill for your Christmas morning, recommends Fox News.

Фото: Depositphotos

As the big day approaches, meteorologists are monitoring historical trends and forecast models to answer the biggest question of the holiday season: "Will we have a white Christmas?"

What is white christmas?

“White Christmas is defined as 1 inch (2,5 cm) or more snow on Earth on Christmas morning,” according to Des Moines, Iowa National Weather Service.

Researchers at the Climate Data Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have collected data from three decades to evaluate which parts of the country are best placed to receive just such a festive morning.

What are the historical chances of a white Christmas?

Looking at data from 1981 to 2010, NOAA researchers created a "Historical Probability of a White Christmas" map, with dark gray showing locations with less than a 10% chance and white areas showing a greater than 90% chance.

Photo: NOAA Climate.gov

The best places to see white Christmas in the neighboring United States include most of Idaho, Minnesota, Maine, upstate New York, where the odds increase to over 80%. In the Allegheny Mountains of Pennsylvania and West Virginia, there is approximately a 50% chance.

Other places likely to see white Christmas include the Rocky Mountains and the Sierra Nevada Mountains in the west.

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According to NOAA researchers, if you're looking for the best city to spend Christmas in, look no further than Aspen, Colorado—it's one of a dozen places where the historical probability of seeing a white Christmas is 100%.

Winter is likely to be warmer, but there are “large fluctuations” in temperature and precipitation, NOAA says.

Photo: NWS Des Moines

“While the map shows the climatological probability of snow-covered ground on December 25, actual conditions this year could be very different from these probabilities as existing weather conditions will determine whether there is snow on the ground or whether snow falls on Christmas Day. These probabilities are only useful as a guide to show where snow on the ground is more likely,” the service said.

What does the forecast say about chances this year?

While a storm in November led to heavy snowfall in the mountainous regions and bands from the Midwest to the Northeast, weather forecasters say that this year's warming is nullifying the chances of a white Christmas.

Dr. Joel Myers, CEO of AccuWeather, recently told Fox News that although snow cover is "pretty extensive" a week before the holiday, snowfall is likely to "disappear" in places like Missouri and Ohio Valley by Christmas.

Estimated snow cover throughout the United States as of December 18, 2019. Photo: National Weather Service

According to AccuWeather, historically atmospheric conditions more than once had storm systems passing through Christmas along I-95, but higher temperatures prevented any accumulation of snow. A similar set of conditions exists this year, with the result that recent storms were mostly accompanied by rain or a winter mixture of wet snow and ice rain instead of snow.

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According to Myers, there will be no white Christmas in the big cities in the northeast, as in southern Connecticut, while the situation with Boston is not so obvious.

Arctic air can bring some snow and ice in the Great Lakes and snowstorms in New York a week before Christmas, but any snow cover will not last long as it gets warmer on weekends.

Further west, the Chicago area has a "borderline" chance of seeing snow on the ground on Christmas morning, while the Upper Midwest, including the Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin and northern Michigan, has a strong chance of a white Christmas. Myers explained that these areas are seeing "a lot more snow" this year. Elsewhere in the Plains, the chance is less than 50%, especially in central and southern areas, according to AccuWeather.

The Rockies and Cascades will also see "plenty" of snow cover, but Myers said places like Denver likely won't have a white Christmas.

Travelers will enjoy much better conditions during the Christmas holidays than during Thanksgiving, when a severe storm caused all kinds of road chaos.

On Christmas Eve in the southwest, light rain and snow are expected in the mountains. In addition, there will be dry conditions in the northwest, while mild weather will extend to the rest of the country. In the northern part of New England, light rain showers are possible, but overall there will be very little rainfall to bring new snow.

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