The US is expecting a 'surprise' from Putin by May 9 - an official declaration of war on Ukraine and full mobilization

Russian President Vladimir Putin could formally declare war on Ukraine as early as May 9, allowing Russia's reserve forces to be fully mobilized as invasion efforts continue to falter, US and Western officials say. CNN.

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May 9, known in Russia as Victory Day, is celebrated to commemorate the country's victory over the Nazis in 1945.

Western officials have long believed that Putin would use the day's symbolic and propaganda value to announce either military gains in Ukraine or a major escalation of hostilities - or both.

The Russian president is well versed in symbolism, launching an invasion of Ukraine the day after Defender of the Fatherland Day, another important war day in Russia, reports CNN.

Today, Putin insists on calling the brutal months-long conflict a "special military operation", effectively banning words like "invasion" and war.

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“I think he will try to abandon his ‘special operation,’” British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told LBC Radio last week. “He was plowing the field, preparing the ground to be able to say: “Look, now this is a war against the Nazis, and I need more people. I need more Russian cannon fodder."

According to Oleg Ignatov, senior Russia analyst at Crisis Group, Putin has many options on the table. “A declaration of war is the most difficult scenario,” he said.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has not officially declared war on Russia, imposed martial law on Ukraine when the Russian invasion began in late February.

Throughout the conflict, Putin has consistently portrayed his invasion of Ukraine — a country with a Jewish president — as a campaign of supposed “denazification,” a move dismissed by historians and political observers alike.

Wallace added that he "wouldn't be surprised if Putin announced on May 9th that 'we are now at war with the Nazis of the world and we need to do a massive mobilization of the Russian people.'

This would allow the government not only to raise troops, but also to put the country's economy on a war footing.

The official declaration of war on May 9 has the potential to increase public support for the invasion. It would also allow Putin, according to Russian law, to mobilize standby forces and call on the men officials say Russia desperately needs amid a growing force shortage. Western and Ukrainian officials have estimated that at least 10 Russian soldiers have been killed in the war since Russia started the war in Ukraine just over two months ago.

Mobilization could mean extending the draft for military personnel currently in the armed forces, calling up reservists, or recruiting combat-age men with military training, Ignatov said.

“It would change the whole Kremlin narrative,” Ignatov said, noting that the move would force Putin to admit that the invasion of Ukraine is not going according to plan. A full-scale mobilization could also hurt the struggling Russian economy, he said.

It could also reduce Putin's support at home, as some Russians support an invasion of Ukraine, not wanting to personally go out and fight, the analyst said. “If a full-scale mobilization is announced, someone will not like it,” Ignatov said.

According to him, Putin can still pass a law on mobilization without a formal declaration of war on Ukraine.

Putin could also impose martial law on Russia, Ignatov said, suspending elections and further concentrating power in his own hands.

This would impose rules such as restrictions on the exit of men of combat age from the country, which could also be unpopular, he added.

But it would also represent a big risk for Putin.

Russian fighting is 'anemic'

After a series of military and logistical setbacks, Moscow has focused its efforts on the Donbass in eastern Ukraine, which has been at the forefront of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict since 2014.

But a US official on May 2 called Russian military action there “anemic.”

“They will enter and then declare victory and then withdraw their troops only to allow the Ukrainians to take the territory back,” the official told reporters at a Pentagon briefing.

The official said the problems that have plagued the Russian military since its initial buildup have not been resolved.

“They continue to suffer from poor command and control, low morale in many units, less than ideal logistics,” the official said.

Russian forces were also keen to avoid risks that could result in further losses to their already depleted forces, the official said, describing the ground war in the area as "very cautious, very lethargic."

Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces have made significant progress in pushing back the occupiers around Kharkiv, at the northwestern tip of the Donbass, the official said.

“An incredible effort out there that, again, didn’t get a lot of headlines in the media or get a lot of attention, but it’s just another part of the tough Ukrainian resistance that they continue to show,” the official said.

Other options for Putin on May 9

Less than a week before Victory Day, Moscow can turn not only to the Donbass, but also to other places to make a statement.

Other options include annexing the separatist territories of Luhansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, pushing into Odessa in the south, or claiming full control of the southern port city of Mariupol.

The US has "extremely credible" intelligence that Russia will attempt to annex Luhansk and Donetsk "sometime in mid-May," US Ambassador to the OSCE Michael Carpenter said on May 2. There are also indications that Russia may be planning to declare and annex a "people's republic" in the southeastern city of Kherson.

US State Department spokesman Ned Price said on May 2 that "there are good reasons to believe that the Russians will do everything possible to use May 9 for propaganda purposes."

“We have seen the Russians really redouble their propaganda efforts, probably, almost certainly, to distract the people from their tactical and strategic failures on the battlefield in Ukraine,” Price said at a State Department briefing.
Price added that “it would be a great irony if Moscow used Victory Day to declare war, which in itself would allow them to increase the number of conscripts in a way that they cannot do now. Their military efforts are failing, they are floundering in their military campaign and military goals."

“I am quite confident that we will hear more from Moscow in the run-up to May 9,” Price added. "I'm very confident that you'll be hearing more from the United States, from our partners, including our NATO partners, in the lead-up to May 9."

“Putin can claim that the Russian army had some victories in Ukraine,” Ignatov said. “He may try to use this date to bolster his support.”

However, it is difficult to predict what Russia and its president will do, the analyst added. “All decisions are made by one person and a couple of his advisers,” Ignatov said.

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On May 4, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Putin could not declare war on May 9. “This is not true, this is nonsense,” Peskov said and added that such reports should not be heeded.

When asked about the likelihood of a declaration of war on May 9, the spokesman said: "No way." “We have already answered this question, this is nonsense,” he stressed.

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