How will the conflict in the sky affect the economy of Russia and Turkey

The last 15 years, Russia and Turkey have been building up economic relations with great speed. This is confirmed by the dry statistics: last year the trade turnover between the two countries exceeded $ 30 billion. Now, such incredible economic success can be questioned. Turkey downed military Russian aircraft Su-24 may be the main reason for the break of friendship between Moscow and Ankara.

The Forum has found out how the incident in the sky will affect the economic cooperation between the two countries.

Turkish coast: vouchers, losses, fear

In the international arena, Turkey is the only member of NATO with which Russia does not have a permitting visa regime. That is, Turkish border guards put a stamp in the passport about the passage of the border right at the airport. But on the eve of the Russian Foreign Ministry and the Federal Agency for Tourism, the Russians have already recommended that the Russians refrain from traveling to the Turkish coast of the Mediterranean.

Russia is the second most visited country after Germany. In 2014, the Russians left about $ 3,5 billion in Turkey, in the first nine months of this year - $ 2,3 billion, RBC notes.

Many Russian tour operators have already stopped selling vouchers to Turkey. At the same time, the Association of Tour Operators of Russia stated that if the travel ban to Turkey lasts two to three months, the tourist business will lose millions of dollars.

For tourists, the "closure" of Turkey can be very painful, says Moscow Komsomol. Now, according to the Russian Union of Travel Industry, there can be up to ten thousand tourists from Russia in Turkey, most of whom have chosen this area as a substitute for Egypt. At the same time, there is no adequate replacement for Turkey today. However, the statement of the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia Sergey Lavrov is not enough for the complete cessation of Russian visits to Turkey. Tour operators will stop selling vouchers only when an appropriate order is issued on their website by Rosturizm.

A possible refusal from direct flights with Turkey, for example, Aeroflot Airlines, could cost $ 7,7 million.

Big and small business: nuclear power plant, oil, clothing

Due to a conflict with a Russian bomber, Russia's largest energy contract with Turkey could be threatened. We are talking about the construction of the Akkuyu NPP, which was to become the first nuclear power plant in the country. He writes about it newsru.com.

The station of four blocks is estimated at $ 22 billion - this is the largest contract in the Rosatom state corporation portfolio. The first unit is scheduled to be introduced in the 2022 year. At the same time, Rosatom should become the owner of at least 51% of the station, and Russia’s construction is now directly financed by Russia: the total amount of state support should be 93 billion rubles, Kommersant writes.

Turkey does not depend on Russian oil, but can itself critically influence its deliveries, controlling the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits. Through them goes a significant part of the cargo traffic of the Russian Black Sea ports, including the supply of the Khmeimim airbase in Syria. But the closure of the straits is hardly possible. The mode of passage through the straits is governed by the Montreux Convention of the 1936 year, under which strict obligations are imposed on Turkey.

It is worth noting that in the 2008 year, during the unfolding hostilities in Georgia, Turkey took part in the conflict, not missing American ships with humanitarian aid to the Black Sea, since the US Navy did not agree with Turkey on the passage of ships.

In 2011, experts celebratedthat Russia and Turkey (the Ottoman Empire in the past) fought 13 times.

Kommersant Publishing House notes that other Russian companies have business interests in Turkey, but their scale is much smaller.

It is known that the collegium of the Military Industrial Commission has already requested information on all joint projects with Turkey in the ministries of industry, transport, communications, as well as in Roskosmos and Rosatom.

Small business may suffer due to conflict. Several hundred Russian entrepreneurs today buy goods in Turkey. A resident of Krasnodar, Elena Elfimova sells Turkish-made clothing. The closure of borders for it could turn into a financial collapse, says the Russian TV channel Kuban 24. Next week she is going to go for another batch of goods. Whether the trip will take place is a big question.

“We will lose both money and everything. But our customers will lose. They will rush because they don’t want to take Moscow. They come to us specifically for the Turkish things, ”Elfimova tells the Russian TV channel.

Grocery embargo: meat, fish, oil

Russia restricts the supply of food from Turkey - this may be announced officially in the near future. In the ten months of this year, Turkey imported food worth a billion dollars to Russia.

The goods going from Turkey, from today just stood at checkpoints, - writes Kommersant.

“In this case, unfortunately, all financial losses are borne not by Turkish, but by Russian businessmen, who, as a rule, have already paid for contracts and suffer losses due to downtime and underdelivery of products,” explains the head of the national meat association Sergey Yushin. One of the major importers of fish claims that some of the cars at customs are already unfolding, realizing that Turkish products will, at best, be delayed indefinitely, at worst - destroyed.

Turkey, in addition, is the largest importer of Russian sunflower oil and grains. For 2014, Russia exported 5,8 million tons of grain (wheat, corn, rye) to Turkey, and also 616 thousand tons of sunflower oil.

The head of the Ministry of Agriculture of Russia, Alexander Tkachev, believes that in the event of the termination of grain exports to Turkey, importers of the Middle East, such as Iran, Iraq, Libya, Lebanon, Israel, and also African countries, can be said, Kommersant notes.

As the Medusa, Rosselkhoznadzor from December 1 prohibits the supply of poultry meat from one of the Turkish enterprises. The reason was the discovery of listeria in poultry meat - bacteria, some species of which may be causative agents of diseases. Currently, 16 enterprises in Turkey have the right to supply poultry meat to Russia, but six of them are banned due to violations of veterinary requirements.

Turkey is Russia's fifth largest trading partner with a share in 4,6% of all Russian trade with the outside world, notes RBC. The trade between the two countries in 2014 amounted to $ 31 billion, in nine months of 2015, $ 18,1 billion, of which $ 15 billion is Russian exports to Turkey (imports of Turkish goods amounted to just over $ 3 billion). And taking into account trade in services, Russian-Turkish figures are even higher: for example, in 2014, the turnover of goods and services amounted to almost $ 44 billion, RBC said.

Previously, "Forum" wrote that the head of the US State Department, John Kerry called on Russia and Turkey do not force the situation. A newspaper The New York Times compared the versions of the incident voiced by Turkey and Russia with the shot down Russian bomber Su-24.

The Forum also reported on how Moscow residents, after learning of the incident in Turkey, crushed the Turkish embassy in the capital of Russia.

It turned out, as the Forum found out, Russian military planes and ships dozens or even hundreds of times violated the space of countries - members of NATO and their partners - Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Holland, Sweden and the USA - only in the last year. The attacks increased after the annexation of the Crimea, the start of hostilities in the east of Ukraine and the imposition of sanctions on Russia.