US forces in the Persian Gulf: will there be war?

In recent days, the situation in the Middle East has dramatically worsened. The reason - the attack on several oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. The authorities of this country, as well as the USA, suspect Iran and the Islamist groups supported by it. Earlier, Donald Trump fully restored sanctions against Iran, and Tehran threatened to resume its nuclear program. According to experts, the risk of war is higher than ever in recent years, writes Meduza.

Photo: Twitter screenshot

What's happening?

Short. Saudi oil tankers in the Persian Gulf and its oil rigs are attacked. They suspect Iran, although there is no direct evidence of its involvement in the attacks. The United States began to force troops into the region.

On the morning of May 11, two oil tankers belonging to Saudi Arabia, another one marching under the flag of the United Arab Emirates, as well as a ship flying the Norwegian flag, were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. It connects the Oman and Persian Gulfs, at the narrowest point its width is 54 kilometers. The strait is called the oil gate of the world, because 40% of all oil transported by sea passes through it daily.

The attack on the ships of the authorities of Saudi Arabia immediately called sabotage. But it is still unclear how great the damage was caused, how exactly the attack was carried out, and most importantly - who organized it. CNN reports that the ships suffered as a result of a collision with unknown objects, and there was no risk of flooding or oil spills. The Israeli Post The Jerusalem Post generally doubts that the ships were seriously damaged. Shortly before the official statement about the attack, the UAE authorities denied earlier reports that seven ships had been undermined in the territorial waters of this country.

Фото: Depositphotos

Given the importance of the strait to the world oil trade, it is not surprising that the incident was the focus of world media attention. Saudi tankers crossed the strait, even when Iran and Iraq sank ships during the war between themselves at the end of the 1980s. Navigation did not stop and when there was a war in the Persian Gulf. The last time an oil tanker in this area came under attack in 2010 was the responsibility of the attack was claimed by the Islamist group "Brigades of Abdullah Azzam".

Iran is considered the main enemy of Saudi Arabia in the region. The Saudi authorities did not directly accuse him of involvement in the attack, but this version almost immediately became the most discussed. A few days before the attack, the United States warned that Iran could attack merchant ships. The same version is actively promoted by experts from research institutes in Arab countries. The Iranian representatives, in turn, called the incident “alarming and frightening” and suggested that “saboteurs from third countries” could be behind it.

On May 14, representatives of the Saudi authorities said that two oil rigs adjoining the main trunk pipeline of the country came under fire. It connects the eastern deposits with the ports of the Red Sea. This time, Saudi Arabia directly named the perpetrators - the responsibility was placed on the group of the Houthis, who allegedly launched into the territory of Saudi Arabia drones filled with explosives. Hushits are a Shiite group that is believed to have the support of Iran and control most of Yemen. Since 2015, Saudi Arabia and several other countries have been waging an armed struggle against it. In a statement, representatives of the Saudi government stressed that Iran was behind the Hussites.

After the attack on the oil tankers, Donald Trump said that Tehran would “very much regret” if it launched “any attack”. Earlier, the US President ordered to send four B-52 bombers to the Persian Gulf and the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln with a strike force.

Фото: Depositphotos

The New York Times newspaper 14 May wrote that a few days before the escalation of the conflict, the Acting US Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan suggested that Trump send 120 thousands of American troops to the Middle East in case of possible aggression from Iran - as the newspaper notes, the same number was contingent US Army that invaded Iraq.

Why is the situation escalated right now?

Fascia Massage: . The United States restored sanctions against Iran, and Iran threatened to resume enrichment of uranium, which can be used to create nuclear weapons. Conflicts in other parts of the Middle East region also do not stop.

Exactly a year ago, Trump fulfilled one of his main election promises and withdrew from a nuclear deal with Iran, and in the autumn of 2018, he resumed full sanctions against this country. At the end of April 2019, the United States abandoned some exemptions that allowed a number of countries in the world to buy Iranian oil without the risk of falling under US sanctions.

The newly introduced restrictions have already hit hard the Iranian economy, which for the year has fallen by 6%. 8 May The Iranian authorities announced that they would refuse to fulfill a significant part of the conditions of the nuclear deal and will begin to enrich uranium again in 60 days if the US does not agree to conclude a new agreement.

Iranian ambassador to Britain, Hamid Baidinedjehad, said that the United States is playing "a very dangerous game" and is pushing Iran toward a "completely unnecessary war." According to him, the Islamic Republic is ready for any scenarios. Earlier, the commander of the Air Force of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), General Amirali Hajizadeh, at a meeting with members of the Iranian parliament, promised that "if they [the Americans] take a step, we will give them a head."

Фото: Depositphotos

The German edition of Der Spiegel notes that it is not only friction between Iran and the United States. There were no other hotbeds of tension in the Middle East region. Most of these conflicts last for years and even decades, the simultaneous aggravation of the situation is especially dangerous. The fact that Iran is increasing its activity in the region, according to the publication, indicate the recent shelling of Israeli cities from the Gaza Strip. Basically, they are involved in the militants of the Islamic Jihad, which is supported by Tehran.

Israel and Iran confront each other in the Red Sea, which connects the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean through the Suez Canal. According to Der Spiegel, the Israeli authorities have created an informal alliance with Arab states to prevent attacks on oil tankers going to Europe.

According to the German edition, Iran has remained to benefit from the two major regional conflicts of recent decades. In the Syrian civil war, Bashar al-Assad is close to victory: his regime, with some reservations, can be considered allied to Iran. In Iraq, after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, the forces were supported by Tehran. In recent weeks, the United States has been making efforts to win over the Iraqi authorities — in particular, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo came to Baghdad for a visit.

What are the US seeking?

Short. Unclear. Perhaps Donald Trump just wants to show his determination to fight Iran, but is not going to take any real action. Perhaps he is trying to scare Iran and force it to go on its terms (spoiler: it is unlikely to succeed). Perhaps the US president is really inclined to war.

The publication Foreign Policy provides three possible versions of what is happening. According to one of them, all the threats from Trump are nothing more than an “optical illusion” to show Arab allies, Israel and major donors to the US Republican Party that he is determined. However, this version is considered by journalists to be less likely, since the threat of sanctions against all countries, including allies, who buy Iranian oil, is too serious for such a scenario.

According to the second version, Trump is trying to put pressure on Iran as much as possible in order to secure a deal from it on its own terms. That was how he acted on North Korea before moving on to personal diplomacy. The US President does not hide the fact that he would like to meet with his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani, as he met with Kim Jong-un. But Rouhani agrees to such negotiations only after the lifting of sanctions.

American requirements for possible negotiations are likely to include a complete abandonment of uranium enrichment (under the terms of the nuclear deal 2015 of the year, Iran could keep small reserves) and the production of strategic missiles, the release of foreigners in Iranian prisons, and the abandonment of support for armed groups in the region.

Photo: Twitter screenshot

According to Foreign Affairs, in exchange, the Trump administration does not offer anything. It assumes that Iran will agree to an agreement under the weight of economic sanctions. Such an assumption is built on the fact that this is exactly what happened before the conclusion of the first nuclear deal, when Iran experienced several years of the worst sanctions. But, according to experts of the publication, this is an erroneous interpretation: in fact, Iran agreed to negotiate when the Barack Obama administration agreed to soften its position on the ban on uranium enrichment. Until Trump does this, the Iranian authorities will stand their ground.

Finally, the third version says that the White House really expects to achieve a change of power in Tehran and is ready to even go for military intervention.

So there will be a war?

Fascia Massage: . The likelihood of conflict is greater than ever in recent years. But there is no unity in the US administration on the Iran issue. Trump's advisers, especially the military, are ready to fight, but not the fact that the president himself wants it. In any case, so far he has never tried.

According to Der Spiegel, never since 2015, when negotiations were underway on a nuclear deal, the situation was not so acute. European leaders seriously consider the threat of war: this is indicated not only by their official calls for the parties to sit down at the negotiating table, but also by indirect facts. In particular, the ship “Mendes Nunes” of the Spanish Navy, temporarily assigned to it for a year in April, temporarily left the American carrier strike group heading for the Persian Gulf. According to the Spanish press, the command fears possible participation in an armed conflict.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo says that the United States does not seek war. But, according to many American media, there is no unity in the Donald Trump administration about what to do with Iran. The existence of disagreements theoretically reduces the threat of a full-scale armed conflict: to start it you need an agreed solution. On the other hand, Iranian experts believe that in a situation where there is no single position developed, there is no great hope for negotiations.

The main one who insists on building up the US military presence in the Middle East is Trump's national security adviser, John Bolton. His entourage cites intelligence data, according to which Iran, in response to the imposition of sanctions, is preparing sabotage against American forces and its allies. However, an increase in the US contingent only increases the likelihood of such a collision, and at some point Trump may have no choice but to use a weapon. Moreover, as noted by The New York Times, the near future "theoretically" will be quite favorable, since it will take Iran at least a year to restore its nuclear program.

The main argument against the military scenario is that in two years Trump did not conduct a single major armed operation. On the contrary, he is inclined to curtail military missions abroad.

Read also on ForumDaily:

How the US has changed over the past 40 years, and where is Trump

How 2019 was represented in fiction movies of the past

US Army quietly dismisses immigrant recruits

What you need to know about education in the US

Do you want more important and interesting news about life in the USA and immigration to America? — support us donate! Also subscribe to our page Facebook. Select the “Priority in display” option and read us first. Also, don't forget to subscribe to our РєР ° РЅР ° Р »РІ Telegram  and Instagram- there is a lot of interesting things there. And join thousands of readers ForumDaily New York — there you will find a lot of interesting and positive information about life in the metropolis.