Mikhail Khodorkovsky: on the conditions for Ukraine's victory in the war and the future of Russia

The annual Munich Security Conference ended recently. It was on it that Vladimir Putin said in 2007 his infamous “Munich speech”, which many consider a harbinger of the current aggressive policy of the Kremlin. This year, for the first time, the Russian authorities were not invited to the conference. Instead, representatives of the opposition took part in it: Mikhail Khodorkovsky, Garry Kasparov, Zhanna Nemtsova and others. In an exclusive interview with ForumDaily, Mikhail Khodorkovsky shared his thoughts on whether Western countries are afraid of an escalation of the war, and whether post-Putin Russia will be able to bloodlessly transform into a peaceful democratic country.

Фото: Depositphotos

Insurance against future wars

Mikhail Khodorkovsky has repeatedly repeated his main theses, voiced at the Munich Conference, before. Even before the visit to Germany, the former political prisoner announced, which is going to convince Western politicians: it will be possible to deal with Russia if the country becomes a true federation, the future of which will begin to be determined by its regions.

I am going to the Munich Security Conference to argue for the second scenario as the preferred one.

The transformation of Russia into a real federation means the actual re-establishment of the country. All key issues will have to be decided in Parliament. (5/8)

— Mikhail Khodorkovsky (@mich261213) February 6, 2023

Mikhail Khodorkovsky considers it the variant of a parliamentary federation that is the most preferable not only for Russia, but also for its neighbors. The politician is convinced that the scenario of the collapse of the country, which sometimes looks tempting for the victims of Kremlin aggression, in fact, it will almost certainly lead first to internecine wars, and in the long run to the risk of another dictatorship emerging in a few years under the slogan of “collecting lands”. Khodorkovsky wrote about such risks in detail in his bookHow to kill a dragon».

According to the oppositionist, the occupation or forcible division of Russia "generally not considered serious peopleand no government would risk the lives of its soldiers to interfere in the affairs of a nuclear power. With federalization and parliamentarism, the situation is more complicated. Mikhail Khodorkovsky makes no secret of the fact that some politicians, primarily from the United States, are more accustomed to dealing with the head of the presidential republic - a specific person with whom it is easier to negotiate. In addition, questions arise whether strong regional elites could have formed under the conditions of the modern dictatorship, which will be able to assert themselves after Putin.

«Of course, not all regions will feel their subjectivity by this moment. I would not be surprised if, as a result, 20-25, and maybe even 15 united regions will participate in the re-establishment of Russia. This is a very realistic situation.", Khodorkovsky believes.

On the subject: Putin's State of the Union Address: Russia withdraws from nuclear weapons treaty and threatens protracted war in Ukraine

Consequences of the split of the elites

The opportunity for such a re-establishment, he said, may come when Putin's entourage begins to struggle for power.

«After Putin's departure, there will almost certainly be a split in the elites, when none of the groups will feel strong enough to lead the country alone. If, nevertheless, a person arises who is simultaneously supported by the army, and the special services, and the police, in this case we will get some extension of the current authoritarian regime. However, I think that it will not be very long. Putin has built a personalist regime tailored to him personally, and it will be difficult for any other person to support him.", - the oppositionist argues.

After the collapse of this regime, according to Khodorkovsky, a real transition of power will begin, but only those who will be able to rely on real armed force will objectively be able to participate in this process.

«Now the first to come to mind are the armed formations of Kadyrov or Prigozhin. However, Kadyrov is unlikely to dare to get involved in the internal Russian struggle for power, realizing that too serious forces will oppose him, and no one will allow the leader of the paramilitary formations of the national republic to lead the entire country. As for Prigozhin's PMCs, they are rather few compared to the army or the FSB. However, the military or special services are unlikely to interfere in the political struggle, knowing full well that the ruler of a country like Russia, who came to power with the help of the security forces, will do everything to eliminate the inconvenient witnesses of his ascent”, Mikhail Khodorkovsky believes.

In his opinion, only certain units of law enforcement agencies can take the side of one or another group, while most of them, having taken a wait-and-see attitude, will rather be inclined to obey the orders of regional authorities. It is then that regional and national leaders who have genuine subjectivity will be able to become serious political players. In this case, the only place where these players will be able to work out a compromise and a balance of interests will be the parliament.

«Even Americans are gradually beginning to lean towards the idea that a parliamentary republic is preferable. They have already encountered a situation where a democratic government in Russia was suddenly replaced by a man ready to use nuclear weapons. The growth of radical movements in the US itself also shows that the concept of a “good king” does not provide guarantees against authoritarianism.”, adds Mikhail Khodorkovsky.

"The West may end the war this year"

At the same time, the leaders of the Russian opposition emphasize that only a military victory for Ukraine can become the main guarantee of regime change in Russia. With regard to the situation on the front line, the former head of Yukos is sure that the supply of Western weapons to Kiev at the current pace will lead to a prolongation of hostilities, and consequently, to an increase in losses among both the military and the civilian population. At the same time, Ukraine's allies could help it win this year if they significantly increased the supply of weapons, including aviation.

«I see that many Western politicians are afraid of the escalation of the war and the use of nuclear weapons by Putin. However, they make a serious mistake in how to prevent it. The use of nuclear weapons will cease to be a bluff when and if Putin ceases to be afraid of NATO's direct involvement in the conflict. If he understands that the West is not ready to give a tough conventional response to his aggression, this will only increase the likelihood that he, confident in his impunity, will launch a nuclear strike.”, Mikhail Khodorkovsky is sure.

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According to the Russian oppositionist, the moods of individual Western leaders are also influenced by the internal processes taking place in their countries: economic difficulties, the proximity of elections and the mood of voters on the eve of these elections. In turn, Mikhail Khodorkovsky is confident that any attempt to negotiate with the Kremlin or “freeze” the conflict at the current stage will inevitably lead to the resumption of war in the future, since Putin himself tied the possibility of the existence of his regime to war. This means that Western leaders will still have to give a serious rebuff to the Kremlin's aggression sooner or later.

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