Tornado Alley widens: US could be hit by severe storms in 2024

Climate change and a rare combination of factors associated with El Niño will lead to an active tornado season in 2024, causing Tornado Alley to expand to cover more areas, according to one expert forecaster. Which states will be included in the territory of Tornado Alley, the publication said News Week.

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There are about 1200 tornadoes in the U.S. each year, according to AccuWeather, and many of them occur in Tornado Alley, an area of ​​the central U.S. that was introduced by meteorologists in the mid-1900s. The term originally referred to a strip of land around Kansas and Oklahoma, stretching from South Dakota to northern Texas, where tornadoes were common. But meteorologists have since believed that Tornado Alley appears to be shifting in the past few years, driven in part by climate change.

Extreme meteorologist Reed Timmer says "expansion" is a more appropriate term to describe changes in Tornado Alley, given that the Great Plains will continue to provide ideal conditions for tornado formation.

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The changing climate is now creating ideal conditions for tornadoes in other states.

“With climate change and the Gulf of Mexico being so warm all the time, it seems like moisture availability for these storms is no longer an issue, even during the winter months,” Timmer said.

This means there will be more tornadoes outside of their season, which in most states is typically spring and summer. Timmer believes climate change is causing Tornado Alley to expand south and east into Louisiana, Florida and Texas.

AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter also expressed similar sentiments in the forecast service's 2022 report.

"When you look at tornado trends in recent years, it's clear that tornado numbers are increasing more in the south and east, away from what people typically call Tornado Alley on the Plains," Porter said.

The 2024 tornado season is expected to be active, influenced by El Niño and other climate factors. Timmer predicts there will be 2024 tornadoes in 1207, which is slightly above average. The states with the most are Texas (150), Oklahoma and Kansas (90 each).

Louisiana and Arkansas will see above-average tornado counts this year at 55 and 50, respectively, while Florida, where 65 tornadoes are forecast, will be above average, Timmer said.

This year, warm El Niño weather conditions in the Pacific will combine with the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), or fluctuations in air pressure and sea surface temperatures that occur in the North Pacific Ocean. Timmer called these two climate patterns a "rare occurrence" that could cause an active tornado season in the Great and Southern Plains.

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“It appears that when this has happened historically, tornadoes have been active in the southern Plains in the spring and in the southern U.S. in the winter,” Timmer said.

However, forecasters expect less severe weather in the eastern and mid-southern United States. The combination of NPO and El Niño could cause tornadoes to move into the Gulf Coast and hit southeast Texas as well as the west coast of Florida.

A similar phenomenon occurred during the 1997-1998 El Niño season, which produced one of the most destructive tornado outbreaks in Florida history, killing dozens and injuring hundreds in the Kissimmee area.

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