Above Activity: Atlantic Hurricane Season Gains Momentum

After the relatively quiet start of the Atlantic hurricane season in the Atlantic, weather forecasters report that the peak months of the season have come and that high hurricane formation activity is expected. Writes about it Fox News.

Фото: Depositphotos

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in its mid-season forecast, said the weather conditions for El Niño in the Pacific ended, which led to the creation of neutral conditions more favorable for the development of storms.

“El Niño typically suppresses hurricane activity in the Atlantic, but now we have a busy season ahead,” said Jerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

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“This evolution, combined with more favorable conditions associated with the ongoing era of high Atlantic hurricane activity that began in 1995, increases the likelihood of above-normal activity this year,” Bell added.

NOAA weather forecasters expect 10-17 storms to be named, with 39 mph winds (about 63 km / h) or higher, of which 5-9 can increase to the level of a hurricane. Of these storms, there will be 2-4 major hurricanes that are classified as 3, 4 and 5 categories with 111 mph winds (approximately 180 km / h) and higher.

Photo: noaa.gov

Forecasters this year also increased the likelihood of the hurricane season in the Atlantic above normal to 45%, compared to the 30 percent chance with the pre-season forecast released in May of 2019. The probability of almost normal activity is currently 35%, and the probability of activity below normal has fallen to 20%. This year's hurricane season lasts from 1 June to 30 November.

According to NOAA, an average of 12 named storms form during a hurricane season, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 as major hurricanes. The peak months of hurricane season are from August to October.

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Forecasters also emphasized that the NOAA forecast is for seasonal activity, and not for land-based forecasts. Landfall is largely determined by short-term weather conditions, which are predictable only during the week after the storm, potentially reaching the coastline.

People living in areas of impact along the coast and inland should be prepared for what can be expected in this season of hurricanes.

“Today's updated forecast is a reminder to be prepared,” said acting FEMA Administrator Pete Gaynor.

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“We urge everyone to learn more about the dangers of hurricanes and prepare ahead of time so that if state and local officials call for evacuations before the storm, you and your family plan where to go and what to do to stay safe,” Gaynor added.

So far this year only two storms have been formed, which were given names.

The subtropical storm Andrea formed on 21 in May and quickly passed through the day over the Atlantic, southwest of Bermuda. Hurricane Barry, a second storm, crashed ashore in Louisiana on 13 July as a hurricane of 1 category.

Photo: noaa.gov

The season of Atlantic hurricanes of 2019 of the year lasts from 1 of June to 30 of November, and this year it is represented by the names: Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dorian, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Umberto, Imelda, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebecca, Sebastian, Tanya, Van and Wendy.

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