Zelensky vs Poroshenko: what do closed opinion polls say

A little more than 10 days left before the second round of the presidential elections in Ukraine. Vladimir Zelensky and Petro Poroshenko lead their election campaigns to the finish line. But at the same time, attention to the election of Ukrainians is maximum.

Photo: ForumDaily collage

Debates, analyzes, the threat of Russia are top topics among supporters of both candidates. And whether such a situation can affect the final result of the vote and whether Poroshenko will pull out a victory - he understood OBOZREVATEL.

What does sociology say

Following the first round of voting, Vladimir Zelensky scored 30,26%, his opponent, the current president - 15,92%. The difference between the first and second place is simply colossal, in fact twice.

According to the Razumkov Center, in the second round of Vladimir Zelensky are ready to support 36,5% of Ukrainians, Petro Poroshenko - 22,7%.

Photo: Facebook /Zelenskogo team

At the same time, according to the sociological group “Rating”, the main flow of votes to Vladimir Zelensky comes from supporters of Yuriy Boyko, Yulia Tymoshenko, Alexander Vilkul, and also Igor Smeshko.

Petro Poroshenko can hope for a part of the votes of Anatoly Gritsenko and Ruslan Koshulinsky. However, judging by such data, this will not be enough to win the second round.

Also in “Ze! The team was provided OBOZREVATEL data of a large-scale sociological survey from 16-17 March 2019 of the year. Just two weeks before the first round of elections. The survey was attended by 164 590 respondents, they were interviewed by 6835 interviewers.

According to these data, the overflow of votes in the second round from the main opponents of the current two leaders of the race looks like this:

• Voters Yuriy Boyko: 25,62% will not go to the polls, 64,55% will go to Vladimir Zelensky, and 9,84% will go to Petro Poroshenko;
• Voters Oleksandr Vilkul: 25,16% will not go to the polls, 65,72% will go to Vladimir Zelensky, and 9,13% will go to Petro Poroshenko;
• Anatoly Gritsenko voters: 21,83% will not go to the polls, 48,57% will go to Vladimir Zelensky, 29,6% - to Petro Poroshenko;
• Ruslan Koshulinsky voters: 27,3% will not go to the polls, 37% will go to Vladimir Zelensky, 35,7% - to Petro Poroshenko;
• Igor Smeshko voters: 19,15% will not go to the polls; 61% will be transferred to Vladimir Zelensky, 19,8% - to Petro Poroshenko;
• Yulia Tymoshenko's voters: 28,7% will not go to the polls, 55,3% will go to Vladimir Zelensky, 16,1% - to Petro Poroshenko.

Taking into account this overflow of votes, in the second round 70,4% of voters may vote for Vladimir Zelensky, and 29,6% may vote for Petro Poroshenko.

Photo: Twitter screenshot

Vladimir Paniotto, Director General of the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), lists his figures before the second round of elections.

“If we proceed only from election polls, then we asked people how they would vote in the second round. There the arrangement was 40 on 20. Next, we looked at who the people will vote for, who in the first round cast their votes for other candidates. It can be seen that the electorate was transferred to Poroshenko slightly from Yulia Tymoshenko - about 10%, to Zelensky - 30%.

Most Poroshenko gave Anatoly Gritsenko: somewhere 30% to the current president, 50% - to Zelensky. Approximately divided votes for Igor Smeshko. Especially a lot went to Zelensky from Oleg Lyashko - somewhere 60%, to Poroshenko - 6%. From Yuriy Boyko and Alexander Vilkul, most go to Zelensky, ”explained Paniotto.

Photo: Facebook /Zelenskogo team

Is there any chance Poroshenko?

Despite the data of sociological research, Poroshenko’s team is confident that the situation may change in their direction. On the election day of the first round, one of the most influential deputies of the staff of the current president in an informal conversation with OBOZREVATEL declared: “In the first round, people vote with emotions, in the second - rationio”.

Photo: Twitter screenshot

It is the question of the opposition of candidates actively and is used by presidential candidates. Often Petro Poroshenko makes a bet on this style. At this stage, its headquarters is trying to accomplish several strategic tasks at once:

• Maximum mobilize your own electorate (residents of the western regions) and minimize Zelensky’s electorate.
• Use the technology of opposing candidates.
• Insist on holding open debates. In this case, the candidates will be one-on-one, there will be no opportunity to ask the advisers. Here Petro Poroshenko can win by experience and try to pick up those voters who have not yet decided who to support.

True, according to sociologist Dmitry Dmitruk, despite the information noise around the debates and testing, nothing fundamental happened in the balance of power between the candidates.

“I think the trend has not changed. Zelensky first, and Poroshenko second. The question is only in the amount of separation. Nothing that would affect the distance between them, did not happen. So far, something could not change drastically. The entire sociology of individual companies is closed, perhaps there will be something in the coming days, ”explained Dmitruk.

Director of the Democratic Initiatives Foundation named after. Ilka Kucheriva Irina Bekeshkina generally confirms the thesis that in the second round of voting for the president, citizens will elect a candidate according to the principle of “lesser evil.” Among those who have decided that they will go to the polls, some people will vote against the current president so as not to leave him in office, and some will choose Petro Poroshenko, just not the showman Vladimir Zelensky.

Photo: Facebook / Zelensky team

“It's more of a competition of sympathy. The results of the survey conducted by sociologists before the second round coincide with the results of the first round among those who voted for Poroshenko or Zelensky. The rest of the people answer that they are either undecided or will not go to the second round. I think the majority will still decide and go to the polls, but it will be more likely a vote against Poroshenko so that he does not remain president, even if people don’t like the actor Zelensky, or it will be a vote for Poroshenko, only so that Zelensky does not remain,” - said on air ObozTV Bekeshkina.

Can debates influence?

Predicting the course of the debate will be quite difficult. On the one hand, Petro Poroshenko has a great political experience.

He is well versed in these matters, he has experience in negotiations on the Donbass and Crimea. In addition, he understands the work of the entire state apparatus. Judging by the small number of public speeches, there are doubts that Vladimir Zelensky has full knowledge.

Photo: Facebook / Zelensky team

In this situation, special attention should be paid to the venue. If they are held at the stadium, it is logical to assume that the more experienced Vladimir Zelensky will have an advantage. If in the studio - then there is a ball in the field of Petro Poroshenko.

Photo: Twitter screenshot

In general, previously surveyed OBOZREVATEL sociologists agreed that the debate could somehow influence the decision of citizens only in the case of the full failure of one of the candidates. And that, we are talking more about those who have not yet decided who to vote for.

“I think that Poroshenko’s debate will be predictable in all its statements. First, he should not change the program that he announced. Secondly, he realized that he did not work with young people. It can be assumed that the component will be strengthened and made more intelligent. Regarding Zelensky, his program is not very well known, and on his behalf someone spoke more often. The submission from him is very important, ”the chairman of the board of the Ukrainian Institute for Social Research named after Sh. Yaremenko Olga Balakireva.

Read also on ForumDaily:

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Elections in Ukraine: Tymoshenko’s reaction to Zelensky’s proposal to hold a debate of candidates has become known

Day of analysis: how the Ukrainians reacted to the battle Poroshenko and Zelensky

From hair to nails: presidential candidates of Ukraine have passed the tests on the air

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