How Jeb Bush turned into a Republican outsider

Just recently, it seemed that Jeb Bush, the son of one American president and the brother of another, would easily be able to secure the support of the Republican Party. However, three months before the start of the republican primaries, Bush turned from a favorite into an outsider: his rating is steadily falling, and influential Republicans are in no hurry to speak in his support. Medusa talks about the reasons for Jeb Bush’s setbacks.

When about a year ago, Jeb Bush объявил the intention to run for the presidency of the United States, he was perceived not just as a favorite of the future race. The offspring of the family, which already gave America two presidents, were pinned great hopes on the potential unifier of the Republican Party. Of course, these hopes were associated not so much with the figure of Jeb Bush himself, but with the influence of his family: it was obvious that in terms of connections, and therefore the ability to raise funds for the election campaign, Bush had no worthy rivals. And a candidate who is able to secure financial support from major republican donors will certainly be able to unite the party around himself.

At first, this was approximately what happened: Jeb Bush showed good results during the polls, was able to neutralize Mitt Romney (the Republican candidate in the 2012 elections of the year refused to participate in the new campaign), and by August 2015 collected a predictably impressive amount of 102 million dollars.

However, circumstances have changed: since August, Jeb Bush has not only failed to achieve new successes, but also has lost all the advantages, having turned into a completely hopeless candidate by the end of October. Despite the support of party donors, Bush did not succeed in drawing to his side existing Republican politicians. Bush now has a member of the House of Representatives, 21, and only three senators. Of the Republican governors, not one has declared their intention to vote for Jeb Bush. Bush's rating has slipped to 7% - among potential Republican candidates this is fourth place. For comparison: the rating of Donald Trump, the leader of public opinion, is almost 27%.

October 23 Jeb Bush Headquarters объявил about a sharp reduction in staff and campaign costs. October 26 in Houston held an emergency meeting of supporters of Jeb, which was attended by his father and brother. The media perceived this unequivocally: if it took the direct intervention of both George W. Bush, then this is a real crisis in Jeb Bush’s team.

It is believed that the reason for the failure of Jeb Bush was precisely Donald Trump. An eccentric billionaire during the campaign is not shy about personal attacks on opponents, and he criticized Bush a lot and famously. But more important was not so much criticism from Trump, but rather how reacted Bush himself. For example, he recently stated that he does not see much interest in sitting and listening endlessly to the claims of his fellow party members: “I generally have something to do. Want Trump - Choose Trump. ”

However, the matter, apparently, is not only how unsuccessfully Jeb Bush conducts his election campaign. For many, the weakness of his candidacy was evident a year ago. The main problem lies in the fact that Jeb Bush last held a government position almost ten years ago. In 2007, he resigned as governor of the state of Florida and went into business. The Republican Party has changed dramatically during this time: people have appeared in it, opposed to the old establishment, to which the Bush family belongs, as well as functionaries, who are not obliged to this establishment and this family. During Obama’s two terms, it was they who formed the new conservative agenda. As BuzzFeed editor-in-chief Ben Smith wrote in April of 2014, “the idea that Jeb Bush will be able to win the republican primaries is a pipe dream of the former leadership of the Republican Party”.

Republican primaries will start in February 2016 of the year. Big will to win Jeb Bush, judging by his last performances, does not demonstrate, so it is likely that his fate will be decided in the first stages: caucuses in Iowa and voting in New Hampshire. It seems that almost no one believes that father and brother will be able to save the situation.