Bloomberg: worst predictions for 2016 year

The Bloomberg News publication asked several dozens of experts - current and former diplomats, economists, analysts and consultants in the field of finance, geopolitics - to assess the threats to international stability and on the basis of this to compile the ten worst scenarios the world could face in 2016.

Below we publish a brief retelling of all ten - from the rise in price of oil and global warming to the strengthening of Russia and the election of Donald Trump as the US President.

10. Donald Trump will become President of the United States

Having come to power, the republican candidate promises to revise the tax system, tighten the law on migrants and increase the armed forces. Trump builds a wall on the border with Mexico, starts a surveillance program with the help of drones, sanctions economic espionage in China. The dollar is falling, the Mexican peso is depreciating, private investment companies are going bankrupt, gold and the military-industrial complex companies are going up in price.

9. Political crisis will begin in Latin America

Brazil is on the verge of anarchy after the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff. The president of Venezuela uses the army to restore power. The economic crisis makes reform impossible in Argentina. Stock markets are falling, the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso are depreciating, the largest companies are going bankrupt. Latin America is entering a new lost decade.

8. Global warming won't stop

The agreement in Paris could not stop the rise in average temperature on the planet. In Southeast Asia, fires are raging, in Australia due to drought, livestock and crops are dying. California introduced a state of emergency, the development of Silicon Valley ceases. South Africa is declining due to water scarcity. Food products are becoming more expensive, recession begins in developing countries.

7. Putin will beat Obama

Vladimir Putin was able to achieve a settlement in Syria and create a coalition against the Islamic State. The flow of refugees to Western European countries is decreasing. Angela Merkel agrees to abandon anti-Russian sanctions. Russia is strengthening its position in the Middle East and improving relations and trade with Europe. The ruble is strengthening, shares of Russian and German companies are becoming more expensive.

6. Israel will bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities

On the eve of the presidential election in the United States, Israel is attacking Iranian nuclear facilities. In the Middle East, there is a wave of discontent that leads to the White House of an extremely radical candidate. The deal on the Iranian nuclear program is falling apart. European oil companies are freezing deals with Iran. The prices for oil and gold are jumping, the military-industrial complex companies are becoming more expensive, the Israeli market is collapsing.

5. China's militarization will increase

The Chinese economy is experiencing a crisis - it turns out that official reports significantly embellished its condition. Strikes are starting across the country, and authorities are tightening control over social networks even more. China begins to look for ways to distract the population from internal problems and finds itself on the verge of a military conflict with the United States in the South China Sea. Due to the conflict, sea and air communications are under threat, and stock markets are collapsing throughout Asia. Oil prices are rising, and companies in the American military-industrial complex and the Chinese defense sector are rising in price.

4. The European Union will collapse under the wave of nationalism

In the cities of Europe, a wave of terrorist attacks under the scenario of Paris. Against the background of a growing flow of refugees, this leads to a political crisis in the European Union. Angela Merkel, who called for the admission of refugees, is forced to resign. In France, the popularity of Marine Le Pen is growing, which requires the closure of borders within the European Union. Under pressure from the successors of Merkel, Greece is leaving the eurozone, the euro is collapsing, and the very existence of the single currency is in question.

3. Hackers from Russia and Iran are attacking the largest banks

Russian and Iranian hackers are organizing a joint attack on the American financial sector in response to sanctions. Trading platforms are breaking down, trust in the financial system is undermined. Borrowers limit the issuance of funds, the Federal Reserve is forced to lower the key rate. The dollar is falling, securities are getting cheaper, the largest investors are starting to invest in real estate, gold and companies specializing in cyber security are rising sharply.

2. UK will leave the EU

Prime Minister David Cameron holds an early referendum on UK membership in the European Union. London Mayor Boris Johnson begins a populist campaign for the country's withdrawal from the European Union and soon changes Cameron as leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister. Leading the government, Johnson is preparing to exit the country from the EU. The largest British banks and industrial companies go abroad in order to maintain the opportunity to trade freely with the European Union. In the UK, a recession begins, the FTSE 100 index collapses, the key rate rises. Government bonds are losing in price against the background of the decision of Scotland to hold a new referendum on independence.

1. The price of oil will soar to 100 dollars per barrel

The Islamic State is attacking countries that control strategic oil infrastructure facilities in the Middle East. At the same time, militants are becoming more active in Nigeria, and Algeria and Venezuela are plunged into political chaos. OPEC countries do not have time to increase hydrocarbon production, and oil rises in price to 100 dollars per barrel. The US Federal Reserve is forced to lower its key rate, China is starting a recession. New impetus gets nuclear power, as well as companies engaged in alternative energy sources.