For the USA, Russia is a frog in a pot of boiling water

Surely you have heard the story of a frog: if you throw it into boiling water, the frog realizes the danger and jumps out of the pot. If you heat the water gradually, the frog will not jump out and cook.

In my opinion, the American authorities are taking exactly this approach in relation to the military conflict in Ukraine: they are waiting for the frog to boil in the cauldron. On the one hand, the United States is trying to reassure its European allies, and on the other hand, it is trying not to cross the red line in the confrontation with Russia. This is why America continues to increase its presence in Eastern Europe and arm Ukraine. However, this is done gradually so as not to force the Russian frog to jump out of the pot and attack the enemies.

The White House’s strategy is to build up its forces on NATO’s eastern flank, especially in Estonia and Latvia. Thus, the United States makes it clear that if Russia invades the territory of its US ally, Moscow will be declared a war. In my opinion, the forces of deterrence of NATO in the Baltic region at the time of the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine were minimal. But today the situation has changed: they are enough to prevent open confrontation between Russia and NATO in the Baltic countries. It also gives military strategists more confidence in case the second Minsk agreements fall apart. In this case, the United States will increase military aid to Ukraine, will end the so-called “war by proxy” and will begin a direct military invasion of Russia.

Moscow is increasing its military cooperation with geopolitical rivals of the West: China, North Korea, Venezuela, Cuba and Syria.

Nevertheless, there is a risk that the Russian Federation will take some unexpected, irrational step, provoking, for example, a war with NATO, or it will start rocking the situation in other regions, not necessarily in Ukraine.

Today, Moscow’s strategy, in addition to continuing its hybrid war in Ukraine, is to continue building up its military power. It also includes a sharp increase in the number and scale of military exercises in the important Western regions of the Baltic and Black Seas, as well as the Arctic Ocean. In addition, Russia has become involved in brinksmanship policies such as sending Tu-95 bombers into the English Channel region, provocative flights over American naval vessels, and sending military aircraft into the air corridors of Western countries.

In addition, Moscow announced that it was withdrawing from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE Treaty). Soon we can talk about withdrawing from the Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles (INF), as well as deploying new nuclear weapons systems aimed at Western Europe, or locating nuclear weapons in Crimea and Kaliningrad.

Finally, Moscow is increasing its military cooperation with geopolitical rivals of the West, including China, North Korea, Venezuela, Cuba and Syria. She can start cooperation with Iran at any time.

This is not the whole range of possible behaviors of the Russian Federation. It can also apply various political, economic and informational methods to split NATO and undermine the European Union. Then Russia will become the most courageous, most powerful and most effective global rival of Western liberal hegemony.

I want to end by saying that I don’t have a recipe for getting out of this situation - that’s why I’m so worried. For a long time I believed that it would be enough to agree on the non-aligned status of Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia and Azerbaijan, as well as to conclude a new agreement on the location of conventional weapons. However, given the current relations between Moscow and Washington, this looks very unlikely. At least for today.