Why are we afraid of a dangerous asteroid, and what really flies to Earth

The Russian media are in a panic: an asteroid with a diameter of more than 300 meters is rapidly approaching our planet, and it is about to destroy all life on it.

“Humanity has 49 years left. A huge asteroid is flying towards the Earth,” Life publication scares Russians. “Scientists have named a new date for the end of the world,” echoes the NTR channel. “The majority of the Earth’s population will die,” People’s News clarifies. “The apocalypse is near,” Channel Five warns.

According to Air force, all publications emphasize: it is not for nothing that the killer asteroid is called Apophis - it is named after the terrible ancient Egyptian serpent god, who seeks to devour the Sun and plunge the Earth into eternal darkness.

So, is the inevitable apocalypse really waiting for all of us?

The short answer is no. But let's figure out where the messages about the coming end of the world came from, and what is true in them and what is not.

Verification of facts

The asteroid Apophis really exists and really approaches the Earth.

It was opened in June 2004, and then made a lot of noise. According to the initial calculations, the probability of its collision with the Earth in 2029 was estimated at 2,7% - and this is very much, given the size and mass of a celestial body.

According to Russian media, the diameter of Apophis is 325 meters (in some editions, however, they turned into 325 kilometers). This is not entirely accurate: as it approaches the Earth, the dimensions of the asteroid are specified, and, according to the latest data, its diameter is 370 meters.

Anyway, in the event of its collision with Earth, the consequences for life on our planet will indeed be catastrophic and comparable to the explosion of a dozen of the most powerful atomic bombs created by Soviet scientists at the peak of the arms race.

It is also true that Apophis will approach the Earth not once, but several times. To be precise, a total of 12, and the asteroid will fly closest to our planet three times: in April 2029, March 2036 and April 2068 - that’s when the inevitable apocalypse is predicted for us.

For the first time, it will pass by our planet at a distance of only about 31,2 thousand kilometers - and this is indeed 12 times less than the distance from the Earth to the Moon, and even a little closer than the orbits of some artificial communications satellites.

On this, however, truthful facts end and speculation and exaggeration begin.

What really

Firstly, as in this article, all illustrations demonstrating the collision of an asteroid with the Earth are nothing more than a figment of the imagination of artists. There are not even any high-quality photographs of Apophis.

Here is the best asteroid photo on NASA's site.

Photo: NASA / JPL-CALTECH

According to the latest calculations, Apophis is approaching our planet at a speed of about 5,85 km/s - or a little more than 21 thousand km/h.

These numbers sound impressive, but in fact they are quite small - by cosmic standards. Suffice it to say that all other celestial bodies that could potentially collide with the Earth are approaching us much faster.

The relatively low speed of Apophis makes it very difficult to accurately calculate its trajectory, so it is constantly being updated.

Initially, as mentioned above, the disaster was predicted for 2029 - with a probability of 2,7%, which is approximately 1 in 37.

However, just two years later, in 2006, updated data appeared that did not confirm this forecast, completely ruling out the possibility of a collision. The apocalypse was “postponed” to 2036.

However, this forecast did not last long. Already in the 2013 year, once again recounting the trajectory of Apophis, the scientists again "canceled" the coming Armageddon.

"At the moment, the chances of a collision are estimated at less than one in a million, which allows us with a high degree of confidence to eliminate a collision with the Earth in 2036," said Don Yomans, who oversees near-Earth objects tracking program at NASA.

“Our interest in the asteroid Apophis in the foreseeable future will be purely scientific in nature,” he added.

Since then, NASA continues to monitor Apophis. At the moment, based on the latest data, the probability of its collision with our planet in 2068 is estimated at the level of 0,000007 - or roughly 1 to 110 thousands.

For comparison - this is a thousand times less than the chance of any inhabitant of the planet to die as a result of a car accident, half the probability of dying from a bee sting and about the same as the chance of a sudden death from a dog bite.

Suffice it to say that in the list of celestial bodies that potentially threaten Earth with a collision, Apophis is not even among the top three most likely candidates, sitting in fifth place.

Recall that in the early morning of January 21, the only complete lunar eclipse in the 2019 year occurred with a “bonus” in the form of a super moon. The next total lunar eclipse will occur no earlier than 2021 of the year. Social network users massively shared photos, and ForumDaily did a selection of the most beautiful.

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