US resumed sanctions against Iran, lifted by Obama: what will happen

The administration of US President Donald Trump renews all sanctions against Iran, which were lifted as a result of the agreement on the Iranian nuclear program 2015 of the year.

Photo: twitter / @realDonaldTrump

A wave of protests swept across Iran, and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani promised to circumvent US sanctions and continue selling oil, writes Air Force

Sanctions apply to Iran itself, as well as to countries and companies trading with it.

On Sunday, thousands of people took to the streets of Iranian cities, shouting “Death to America!”

Iranian armed forces gathered for training on Monday and Tuesday to demonstrate the country's defense.

Protest actions took place on the 39 anniversary of the seizure of the American Embassy in Tehran.

How we got here

The United States has been at odds with Iran since the 1979 revolution, and in 1984 designated it a “sponsor of terrorism” and imposed sweeping sanctions. The world remained on the sidelines until the beginning of the 21st century, when the UN began to suspect that Iran was enriching uranium to obtain nuclear weapons in violation of the non-proliferation treaty.

In June, 2010, the patience snapped, and the UN Security Council imposed similar to US draconian sanctions against Iran. Two years later, the European Union completely stopped the purchase of Iranian oil.

Фото: Depositphotos

A year later, Iran backed down, and in November 2013 signed an interim agreement (JPA) following negotiations with six countries: China, France, Russia, Great Britain, the United States and Germany. Thanks to those reliefs, Iran gained access to $4,2 billion in frozen foreign assets and permission to export 1,1 million barrels of oil per day - almost half as much as in 2011.

Two years later, the interim agreement was replaced by the Iran-P2018 nuclear deal (JCPOA), and restrictions on oil exports and financial transfers were lifted. Trump withdrew from this deal in May XNUMX.

How can Iran respond?

Tehran hopes that this time not everyone will sign the sanctions, and it will be easier to survive them. Firstly, Trump has fewer allies and weight in the world than Obama, who imposed previous sanctions, Iran believes. Secondly, this time he did not violate anything, but quite the opposite - he complies with nuclear agreements with the West.

Фото: Depositphotos

Hopes are fueled by Europe’s attempts to find a way to safeguard trade with Iran and the nuclear deal against US sanctions. However, the sanctions have already returned, and Europe is only discussing what to do with them.

Switzerland promises to leave open channels for financing the purchase of medicines and food.

The Iranians are hoping that the countries openly opposing the United States, above all China and Russia, will continue to buy oil from him, which will allow selling at least 1 million barrels per day. This will be enough to keep afloat.

The authorities are gradually putting the country in a state of siege. They began to distribute food aid to low-income people, and soon every second resident of the 80-million country can count on it.

At the same time, Iran is returning to the practice of secretly exporting oil, which allowed it to survive previous bans. The Financial Times wrote in September about a "fleet of ghost ships" - oil tankers that left Iranian ports but turned off the system that allows traders to track their movements. Only one of them - Happiness I ("Happiness 1") - is carrying 2 million barrels of Iranian oil to an unknown destination. And there are at least seven of them in total.

At the same time, Reuters wrote that tankers are in the roadstead at the port of Dubai in anticipation of buyers, since South Korea has reduced purchases, and the United Arab Emirates have completely abandoned them.

“Nobody argues, of course, the current authorities will face difficulties. They have made a number of mistakes recently, they need to be corrected,” Mohamed Marandi, a political analyst and negotiator close to the authorities, told the BBC in August.

Shortly before that, President Hassan Rouhani fired the head of the central bank, followed by the parliament removed the ministers of economy and labor, and in October Rouhani renewed the leadership of the economic bloc of the government with young technocrats.

Now the authorities are better prepared for a new round of the crisis, Marandi is sure. “There is no doubt that the economy will stabilize in a few months,” he said.

Who will not be affected by the sanction?

The administration of President Trump said that eight countries could still import Iranian oil, without specifying which. According to some information, it can be about Italy, India, Japan, South Korea, Turkey, China and India.

According to Mike Pompeo, these countries have already significantly reduced imports of Iranian oil, but they need extra time to bring this import to zero.

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