Why Russia panicked because of the US decision to provide lethal weapons to Ukraine

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Representatives of the Russian Foreign Ministry are alarmed at plans to supply US-made lethal weapons to Ukraine. This was stated by the State Secretary - Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia Grigory Karasin in an interview with a Russian news agency.

According to "Voice of America", a Russian diplomat stressed that a recent US decision to authorize the supply of lethal weapons to Ukraine "leads to war", and said that Russia frankly tells its American partners about its concerns about this move.

“In this way, Washington “hawks” are trying, as they believe, to raise the cost of the conflict in Donbass for Russia. This is a very flawed and dangerous logic. It leads to war, not to peace,” said Grigory Karasin in an interview, which was published on December 26 on the Internet page of the Russian Foreign Ministry.

He noted that “by making a decision to send such weapons to Kyiv, the United States and Canada are opening a “Pandora’s box” and, in fact, are being drawn into the internal Ukrainian conflict, reigniting and internationalizing it.”

“At the same time, few people think about the consequences of such a step,” said Grigory Karasin.

Earlier, December 20, newspaper The Washington Post the first to announce a decision of the United States allow arms exports to Ukraine, which runs counter to both the practice of the administration of ex-President Barack Obama and the spirit of calls from President Trump to thaw relations between the United States and Russia.

State Department spokesman Heather Neuert told CNN television that the December 13 Department of Foreign Affairs notified Congress of an export license approval, which allows Ukraine to purchase certain light weapons and small arms from American manufacturers.

Last Friday, 22 December, the State Department made another special statement, from which it follows that the United States intends to expand military-technical cooperation, which fully complies with the policy of "helping Ukraine create long-term defensive capabilities to protect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country."

The statement emphasizes that "US aid is completely defensive in nature." Although the State Department did not specify what kind of weapons in question, the ABC television channel reported that it was planned to supply 210 anti-tank missiles and 35 launch systems for the Javelin anti-tank systems (FGM-148 Javelin).

The Minister of Defense, General of the Army of Ukraine Stepan Poltorak noted on his Facebook page that “this assistance is not for the offensive, but for the protection of our territory from the aggressor.”

“I am grateful for the consistent support of the United States of America in our struggle for independence!” Said Minister Stepan Poltorak on December 23.

In an interview with ZIK, Stepan Poltorak stressed that Ukraine will receive these funds in the form of products, the list of which will be prepared by the Ministry of Defense.

“We will not receive a financial resource in monetary terms, we will receive products from the United States,” the minister said, Ukrainian News news agency reported December 26.

According to Stepan Poltorak, in the list of weapons requested by Ukraine there are means of electronic warfare, communications and unmanned aerial vehicles.

"In the list we provided to the US Department of Defense, there are Javelins as a means of anti-tank fight. They are very effective, ”the minister said.

At the same time, Poltorak said that the Ministry of Defense had increased the order for the domestic anti-tank systems "Stugna" and "Korsar".

Conditions for Donbass: Javelins, peacekeepers and Minsk-2

One of the main reasons for the US decision to grant Javelins Ukraine political analyst Alexander Kochetkov calls “walking in a circle” or insufficient progress in negotiations between US special representative for Ukraine Kurt Walker and presidential aide Vladislav Surkov.

“This statement is due to the fact that Kurt Volker and Vladislav Surkov went through a circle of issues several times: the departure of the Russians from Donbass, the deployment of peacekeepers - and these circles return to the starting point. And at the last meeting, as can be concluded from several interviews with Kurt Volker, he, in fact, warned and did not rule out the supply of weapons to Ukraine, including in the event that Moscow does not meet halfway. In fact, it was a warning - and it was implemented. This is an attempt to make the Russian negotiators sane and more constructive,” says Alexander Kochetkov to a correspondent of the Russian service of the Voice of America.

According to Alexander Kochetkov, the Javelins are capable of exerting a psychological effect on militants from the self-proclaimed republics.

"But the psychological impact on the militants of Donbass, these missiles will have, of course!" There are such legends that if a rocket took off, then it will definitely hit the target. Probably, there will be fewer people willing to go to the tankers among the separatists, ”the political observer says.

At the same time, he believes that American portable anti-tank missile systems are not capable of affecting the established military parity in the Donbass.

"In a relationship Javelinsif Ukraine receives them, we will have about three hundred charges, and tanks on the uncontrolled part of Donbass, at the disposal of the militants - about five hundred and other armored vehicles - under two thousand. On the other hand, the whole conflict is escalating and increasing. Russia can put two on each destroyed tank; and this armored vehicles from Soviet times she has plenty. But we need to take into account the presidential elections - Putin wants to put on the mask of a peacemaker and the additional escalation of the conflict is unprofitable for him, ”Alexander Kochetkov notes.

Diplomacy is a weapon for Donbass

Weapons of such characteristics will not solve global issues: there is no military solution to the conflict in the Donbas. This is recognized by both the United States and Russia. About this the correspondent of the Russian service "Voice of America" ​​says political analyst-international Anton Kuchuhidze.

“Now the conflict between Washington and Moscow has moved to a higher level, Surkov and Volker cannot agree, so they make mutual political decisions. Russia has withdrawn its representatives from the Joint Center for Control and Coordination in the Donbass, and the United States raises the stakes in the form of allowing the sale of such weapons to Ukraine. But, in essence, the goals, both of them and of others, are to strengthen their bargaining power in order to influence each other, Ukraine, and representatives of uncontrolled territories. Globally, no matter how much the United States provides us with weapons, it is still impossible to resolve this conflict militarily - only by diplomatic means, ”says Anton Kuchuhidze to the Voice of America Russian service correspondent.

According to Anton Kuchukhidze, the "lack of viability and impracticability" of the Minsk agreements, as evidenced by a number of experts, will be overcome by implementing a plan to bring peacekeepers into the occupied territory of Donbass.

“It was stated that the introduction of peacekeepers is necessary for the implementation of the Minsk agreements, this plan is possible as a result of the negotiations of Surkov and Volker, and their agreement on a common text of the resolution on peacekeepers. This will be the key to the activation of Minsk-2. Those who say that “Minsk-2 is dead” are exaggerating, because the exchange of prisoners of war is taking place within the framework of the Agreements, consultations of the parties are being held on various humanitarian and political situations. The Norman format is found within the framework of the Minsk agreements for their implementation, ”says Anton Kuchuhidze.

He emphasizes that "the Minsk agreements created a huge number of diplomatic mechanisms to resolve the situation in the Donbas, and not to block it."

After "Javelin": a new dialogue with the United States

According to the director of foreign policy and international security programs at the Razumkov Center, military expert Alexei Melnik, the political aspect, which has been discussed between the countries for two years, is essential in the United States’s desire to provide Javelina.

“At the hearing, the very word“ Javelin ”is in the vocabulary of politicians, at the highest level. It was a “flag” that was postponed for two years, and today this decision seems final, and this is a signal that, first of all, Russian-American relations have moved to another stage. This is an important political and diplomatic moment, ”Alexey Melnik stresses in his commentary to the Voice of America Russian service correspondent.

Alexey Melnik believes that, from a military point of view, the Javelin complexes will save the lives of Ukrainian soldiers in the event of an aggravation of the situation, an escalation of the conflict.

“For Russia, it’s not so much the number of these missiles and installations and possible damage, as the fact that this transfer of weapons will take place for Ukraine. For two years, this was a hypertrophied pattern of relations, around which there were so many conversations and this turned into not so much a practical military sense, but a political one. For Russia, the statements of the United States were certainly unexpected. Everybody got used to the fact that under Barack Obama the story with Javelins was blocked, Donald Trump also tried to postpone this decision, and there was no hope that the United States would agree to implement this idea, ”Alexey Melnik underlines.

He believes that for the defense of Ukraine it is necessary to conduct a dialogue in the provision of various anti-sniper systems, communication management systems, anti-missile and air defense systems.

“If Russia really leaves Syria, which is constantly being talked about, then it is possible that at some stage the Kremlin may consider it appropriate to use aviation. This threat cannot be excluded. Ukraine has lost and so a small fleet after the annexation of the Crimea. With the changed situation, having such a large maritime economic zone, we need not just to strengthen, but to revive our naval forces again, ”says Alexey Melnik about new aspects of cooperation with the United States to ensure the security and defense of the country.

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