How many hurricanes to wait in the new season: a fresh forecast

1 June 2019 in the USA begins the hurricane season. Meteorologists have released the first forecast to warn about possible large-scale natural disasters, writes USA Today.

Фото: Depositphotos

Experts expect the Atlantic hurricane season to be slightly below average. Meteorologist Phil Klotzbach and other experts from the University of Colorado, who are among the country's leading weather forecasters, predict that 13 will be exposed to tropical storms in America, five of which will be hurricanes.

On average for the season occurs 12 tropical storms. Six of which become hurricanes.

A tropical storm is assigned hurricane status when the wind speed reaches 119 km per hour.

It is assumed that of the 5 predicted hurricanes, two will become strong and reach the 3,4 or 5 categories with a steady wind speed of 177 km per hour and above. Klotzbach estimated the likelihood that a hurricane would hit the US coastline at 39%.

Last year, Hurricanes Florence and Michael killed more than 100 people and caused damage to 50 billion dollars.

The Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1 and ends on November 30.

Meteorologists predict that hurricane activity in 2019 will be about 75% from the average statistical season. For comparison, the hurricane activity in 2018 was 120% from the average statistical season.

Last year, experts predicted 14 storms, seven of which will be hurricanes. In the end, there were 15 storms and 8 turned into hurricanes.

A key factor in predicting hurricanes is whether the United States is in El Niño or La Niña climates. El Nina - the temperature fluctuations of the surface layer of water in the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean, in which the region of heated near-surface water shifts to the east. The opposite phase of the oscillation is called La Nina. The opposite phase tends to intensify hurricanes in the Atlantic.

Insurance companies, emergency managers and the media use forecasts to prepare Americans for the threat of a hurricane.

“We are publishing these forecasts to satisfy the public's curiosity and raise awareness of the hurricane issue. Many are interested in assessing the chances of whether the season will be active or not,” the university said.

The university team began making predictions in the 1980s. This is the 36 command prediction. It covers the Atlantic Basin, which includes the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

AccuWeather also published a hurricane forecast for the 2019 season of the year, announcing that 12-14 storms will be formed, of which 5-7 will become hurricanes. According to this company, from 2 to 4 hurricanes can affect the US.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will release its forecast in late May.

The first named storm of the Hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean 2019 will be Arlene, followed by Barry, Chantal, Dorian, Erin, Fernand and Gabrielle.

Colorado forecasters will update their forecasts three times on June 4, July 2 and August 6.

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