Forbes: What if Ukraine decides to stop fighting

Putin’s goal is to destroy NATO. Although Russia's invasion of Ukraine is an integral part of this strategy, this is only an interlude, and the main event ahead, writes Paul Roderick Gregory in his article entitled “What if Ukraine decides to stop fighting?” Published on its website Forbes.com.

If Ukraine decides to cease hostilities, NATO, Europe and the United States will have to deal with Russia on their own. The “friends” of Ukraine must decide: Do we want Ukraine to fight for us, or are we ready to fight for ourselves? To avoid the need to make such a decision, they must provide Ukraine with the means for self-defense.

Those Ukraine experienced last year remind me of the story of L. Tolstoy “Death of Ivan Ilyich”. Tolstoy tells the story of the slow death of a rich Russian, the head of the family. Towards the end, his family and friends wish him dead, in order not to hear his suffering anymore. Similarly, the “friends” of Ukraine, Europe and the USA, seem to welcome its demise in the form of a “diplomatic solution”, sacrificing its goal of becoming an independent state oriented towards the West. If we could only remove Ukraine from our path, like Ivan Ilyich, we could return to doing business “as usual”, and we hope that Mr. Putin will be satisfied.

It may sound harsh, but now we know that “a diplomatic decision of Europe, as formulated in the second Minsk agreement, calls for Ukraine to give puppet separatists the right of veto in shaping the future of the country, while Ukraine should pay for the dying Donbass, and the border with Russia remains open, wherever you throw an eye. What did Ukraine receive in return? A shaky truce that was broken before it was announced. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande continue to express the hope that the second Minsk Agreement will be implemented, even after a full-scale attack by the Russian regular forces that captured the additional territories became possible due to their failed agreement on the termination of fire.

The Ukrainian authorities, who will continue to control about 80% of the country's territory, could then focus on the reforms that they rightly demanded on the Maidan. Ukraine should listen carefully to reform advisers from the European Union, but not entertain the hope that it will soon be accepted into the European Union, which is afraid of upsetting Putin. Europe and international organizations should provide the financial support necessary for Ukraine, in any case, as compensation for the damage that they left Ukraine.

If the authorities succeed in uniting all Ukrainians, Putin will have to deal with a hostile and armed people who can inflict enormous losses on the Russian army if it tries to move further into Ukrainian territory and cannot be supported by the myth of "civil war" patriotic rebels lead with the Ukrainian authorities.

If Ukraine decides to stop fighting, what situation will Europe and the USA find themselves in? If Putin thinks rationally, then Eastern Europe, the Baltic countries, Southern Europe, and the Arctic will become instead of Ukraine a welcome fruit that hangs low above the ground. Given the timidity and indecision of the West, as well as the fact that it lacks military strength and will, Putin will try to find weaknesses.

If Europe is lucky, Putin may first turn his attention to Moldova, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, giving Europe some time to rest. However, if Europe and the United States paid attention to Putin’s statements and his propaganda, they should have noted that Ukraine is not really the number one enemy for Russia. Rather, it is Europe, NATO and the United States. As Putin put it: Ukraine is just the “foreign legion” of the evil West, who humiliated Russia, broke its promises and is secretly preparing to attack Mother Russia.

We know that Putin behaves very consistently. He tirelessly repeats the betrayal of NATO, the USA and the European Union after the Munich Security Conference 2007. Why should he change his tone now? If Europe and the USA are enemies, they need to be destroyed regardless of what happens to Ukraine. Given economic problems and unprecedented corruption, Putin must have an external enemy to be fought, and then boast victories. Without this, Putin’s regime would be in danger.

If European and American experts believe that the possibility of military action on the part of Russia in relation to NATO member countries is excluded by the 5 article of the NATO charter, they should think twice. Russia needs only to kindle other “civil wars”, for example, in the Baltic countries, taking advantage of the fact that many Russians live there. All will be confused by the hybrid war of Russia. Then which European country will turn to the 5 article, when Putin will assure the world that this is another unfortunate civil war, and he is just an observer?

Ukraine’s European and American allies betray her when they don’t want to provide her with the means to protect herself from the Russian regular army, whose participation everyone has already recognized. Ukraine, after the second Minsk Agreement, now knows the framework of an unacceptable diplomatic decision that Europe and the United States are ready to take. Why wage a war, losing so many lives and money to fight on behalf of those who abandoned you?

The campaigns of the West in the Middle East, in Afghanistan and Africa were reduced to an unsuccessful search for reliable allies, ready to provide their soldiers on whom you can rely. In Ukraine, with a population of 45 million, the West has found such an ally, but, paradoxically, it refuses to provide it with the means for self-defense, and instead arming dubious allies in Syria, Iraq and Libya.

Merkel, Hollande and Obama must think about what will happen if Ukraine leaves the battlefield, and they will remain on their own. They will have two options: Finnish Europe, which is dancing to the tune of the Kremlin, or poorly prepared Europe, which is trying to fight back, but it is not clear whether it can win.

What will be her choice? We know the answer of pacifist Europe. All that Putin needs to do is threaten his tactical nuclear weapons, and then the Germans, the French, the Dutch and Italians will beat off again. And do not expect help from the United States while the indecisive Obama is in power. Europe can only rely on its own strength.