If you want to see the northern lights, then the next five years are the best time to make your dream come true

The 2023/2024 aurora season has begun and will develop into something quite spectacular over the next few years. Aurora activity is increasing, and now is the best time to plan a trip to see a unique spectacle, reports Space.

Photo: IStock

Auroras have intrigued people for thousands of years with their thin streaks of light dancing across the sky. Known as the Northern Lights in the Northern Hemisphere and the Southern Lights in the Southern Hemisphere, this spectacle is one of the most beautiful natural phenomena in the world.

It occurs when charged particles from the Sun crash into the Earth's atmosphere at a speed of 72 million kilometers per hour. The particles are then redirected toward the poles by our planet's magnetic field, creating colorful curtains of light in the sky.

Simply put, the occurrence of these phenomena depends on solar activity. The more active the Sun, the higher the likelihood of bright auroras forming - which is why we can expect these incredible phenomena to occur over the next few years.

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The sun has been steadily gaining strength since the last solar minimum in December 2019. This aurora season is especially spectacular as the Sun approaches its highest level of activity—solar maximum—during the roughly 11-year solar cycle.

When to Expect the Peak

Experts previously predicted that solar activity would peak in 2025, but some recent estimates suggest that solar activity could peak sooner.

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The revised forecast calls for the peak of solar cycle 25, called solar maximum, to occur between January and October 2024, NOAA said in a statement. The peak will be earlier, stronger and longer than forecasts made in 2019.

Estimates for the timing of solar maximum are based on long-term historical records of sunspot numbers, modern statistics, and models of the solar dynamo—the flow of hot ionized gases inside the Sun that creates the star's magnetic field, which in turn drives the solar cycle.

As with any forecast, there is a certain level of uncertainty. Scientists can't pinpoint exactly when solar maximum will occur, but we know it's soon.

“Currently, the time frame for the cycle maximum ranges from late 2023 to early 2025,” says Frederik Klett, a physicist at the World Data Center for Sunspot Index and Long-Term Solar Observations (SILSO).

The current solar cycle is classified as "moderate" by scientists studying sunspot numbers and comparing them to a long-term benchmark index. The definition of "moderate" means that the current cycle is more intense than the previous 24th, but lower than the 23rd and 22nd solar cycles.

Klett says this is great news for auroral hunters, as the next 4-5 years will be the most favorable for aurora viewing.

Causes

"Moderate" solar cycles typically produce a passive and prolonged solar maximum for about two years, and may contain two or more "subpeaks" of activity during this time, compared to "strong" cycles, which peak for less than a year. The type and position of active regions on the Sun change throughout the solar cycle.

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“After the maximum, active regions appear closer to the solar equator, and therefore closer to the plane of Earth’s orbit, than before the maximum,” Klett noted.

During the decline phase of the solar cycle, the proportion of giant sunspots with a more complex magnetic structure, which are more prone to powerful solar flares, increases. This can cause geomagnetic storms and strong auroras on Earth.

“This is why the most beautiful auroras in the solar cycle can still be expected several years after the peak of the cycle has passed,” Klett explained. “For the current cycle, that means it will happen well beyond 2024 and possibly into 2028.”

With a promising forecast for the aurora over the next few years, now is the best time to plan a trip to this wonder's site.

Auroras never stop and can be seen throughout the solar cycle, even during periods of low solar activity. This is because the weak to moderate coronal mass ejections associated with filamentous eruptions persist throughout the cycle and support the "background" geomagnetic activity that causes auroras.

“Even during the minimums of the solar cycle, the auroras never completely disappear,” Klett said finally.

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