Three myths about those who “came in large numbers” to Russia‏

According to the Foundation’s public opinion, 61% of Russians believe that there are too many migrants in their town (village). The majority in Russia are afraid of foreigners and are confident that it is necessary to tighten migration legislation. In fact, there are not very many migrants in Russia and it would have been worse without them - Medusa explains why.

“There are a lot of migrants in Russia”

Not really. If you take the total figures, then there are really a lot of migrants in Russia. According to the FMS, in Russia at the beginning of 2015, there were 10,9 of a million foreigners - this is the second indicator in the world after the United States. Not all of them are guest workers - hardly 240 thousands of Germans or 145 thousands of Americans came to the construction sites and markets.

In the 2013, the FMS was told that of the total number of foreigners, 42% are in Russia with goals “not related to the implementation of labor activity”. At the same time, illegal migration is, according to various estimates, from three to four million people.

In relative numbers, however, the situation is different - there are fewer migrants in Russia than in many European countries. In Germany, for example, every tenth migrant, according to approximate estimates, is every ninth in Ukraine, almost every sixth in Ukraine. In Russia - just every 13.

In addition, in the past few months, the situation with migrants in Russia has changed a lot. For the second half of 2014, 365 thousands of citizens of Uzbekistan, 178 thousands of citizens of Tajikistan, 45 thousands of citizens of Armenia, 35 thousands of citizens of Moldova (meaning “net outflow”) left Russia. It is unprofitable for migrant workers to work in Russia, primarily because of the devaluation of the ruble, and also because it is now harder to obtain a work permit.

"Migrants are taking our jobs"

Not really. In Russia, there are few unemployed. For the economy, there are downsides - employers cannot find specialists for a long time, often they have to overpay even for simple work. The growth of the economy is impossible without the creation of new jobs - there are simply not so many people on the Russian market who are ready to work (former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, for example, has repeatedly said about this).

True, authoritative economists Sergei Guriev and Oleg Tsyvinsky write that the economic impact of migration should not be exaggerated - perhaps it is not as great as it seems at first glance.

Migrants almost do not compete with the local population for jobs - they appear in those sectors of the economy where the locals do not want to go. Imagine a young Muscovite going to work for the lowest paid positions at a construction site and competing with migrants - most likely there are no such people among your acquaintances.

The same is true of young people from the regions - the most mobile part of the population goes to regional centers to study and compete for high-paying places. Leading researcher at the Institute of Demography of the HSE Nikita Mkrtchyan in 2012 told me that in 70% migrants do not compete with the Russians - they occupy unclaimed jobs. A similar conclusion was recently made by the newspaper Vedomosti, which interviewed working Russians (although it is only about office staff).

Another common thesis is that migrants prevent Russians from receiving fair pay, because their labor is cheaper. Those Guriev and Tsyvinsky, to whom we referred above, explain that even a sharp increase in migration almost does not lead to a decrease in wages in the whole country or even by sectors of the economy. Moreover, human well-being depends not only on income, but also on expenses - and, as indicated by another economist Konstantin Sonin, the use of migrants in competitive markets can reduce the prices of final goods.

“Migrants commit a lot of crimes”

Not really. This thesis is the easiest to refute. In Russia - 10,9 million foreigners. In the 2014 year, they committed thousands of crimes to 44,4. This is 2% of the total number of reported crimes (2,17 million). In other words, foreigners are much more law-abiding than the Russians - even if you remove from the sample those 42% who came to Russia not to work (although not the fact that they do not commit crimes).

There are other arguments in favor of the fact that migrants do not commit too many crimes. Firstly, the discussion in the statistics of the Ministry of Internal Affairs is about registered crimes - they could not have brought cases against them. If you study the criminal cases that have reached the court, then the statistics will also not be in favor of the Russians - the migrants commit 2 – 3% of such crimes.

Secondly, general statistics do not take into account the specifics of crimes, and practice shows that a significant part of migrant crimes is related to violation of immigration laws.

All this does not exclude that in places of large concentrations of migrants the number of crimes committed by visitors increases, this applies, for example, to Moscow and the Moscow Region.

However, the same can be formulated in a different way, without the word “migrant”: in the places of economic activity, the able-bodied, largely male population increases. It is the able-bodied men who, according to statistics, commit most of the crimes.