Heat will lead to an outbreak of climate migration: 200 million people will move

К 2050 million people could move in 200 due to climate change, reports AP News.

Photo: Shutterstock

Climate change could push more than 200 million people to leave their homes over the next three decades and create migration hotspots if urgent action is not taken to reduce global emissions and close the development gap, the World Bank said in a report.

The second part of the Groundswell report, published on Monday, examined how the effects of slow climate change, such as water scarcity, declining crop yields and rising sea levels, could lead to millions of people referred to as "climate migrants" 2050 under three different scenarios, according to varying degrees of climate impact and development.

Under the most pessimistic scenario, with high emissions and uneven development, the report projects that up to 216 million people will be displaced within their countries in the six regions analyzed. These regions are Latin America; North Africa; Sub-Saharan; Eastern Europe and Central Asia; South Asia; and East Asia and the Pacific.

In the most climate-friendly scenario, with low emissions and inclusive sustainable development, 44 million people in the world could still be displaced from their homes.

The findings "confirm climate's ability to drive migration within countries," said Vivian Wei Chen Clement, a senior climate change specialist at the World Bank and one of the report's authors.

The report does not address the short-term impacts of climate change, such as the effects of extreme weather events, and does not address climate migration across borders.

On the subject: 'Code red for humanity': UN releases report on catastrophic climate change

In a worst-case scenario, sub-Saharan Africa - the most vulnerable region due to desertification, fragile coastlines and population dependence on agriculture - would be home to the largest numbers of migrants, with up to 86 million people moving within national borders.

However, North Africa is projected to have the largest share of climate migrants: 19 million people move, representing about 9% of its population, mainly due to increased water scarcity in northeastern Tunisia, northwestern Algeria, western and southern Morocco and in the central foothills of the Atlas, the report said.

In South Asia, Bangladesh is particularly affected by floods and crop failures, which account for nearly half of projected climate migrants, with 19,9 million people, including a growing number of women, moving in a pessimistic manner by 2050.

“This is our humanitarian reality right now, and we are concerned that the situation will be even worse where vulnerabilities are greater,” said Professor Maarten van Aalst, director of the International Red Cross and Red Crescent Climate Centre, who was not involved in the report. .

Photo: Shutterstock

Many scientists say the world is no longer heading towards the worst-case emissions scenario. But even in a more moderate scenario, Van Aalst said many impacts are now happening faster than previously expected, "including the extreme events we are already facing and the potential impacts on migration and displacement."

While the impact of climate change on migration is not new, it is often part of a combination of factors pushing people to move and acts as a threat multiplier. People affected by conflict and inequality are also more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, as they have limited means to adapt.

“Globally, we know that three out of four people who move stay within countries,” said Dr. Kantha Kumari Rigo, lead environment specialist at the World Bank and co-author of the report.

The report also warns that migration hotspots could emerge over the next decade and intensify by 2050. Planning is needed both in the areas where people will move and in the areas they leave to help those who stay.

You may be interested in: top New York news, stories of our immigrants and helpful tips about life in the Big Apple - read it all on ForumDaily New York.

Recommended actions included achieving “net zero emissions by mid-century to have a chance to limit global warming to 1,5 ° C” and investing in development that is “green, sustainable and inclusive, in line with the Paris Agreement”.

Clement and Rigaud warned that a worst-case scenario is still plausible unless collective action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and invest in development is taken soon, especially in the next decade.

Read also on ForumDaily:

Northern California habits that are not shared by other states

Oxygen Deficiency and Vision Impairment: What Happens to Our Body and Brain During Air Travel

XNUMX myths about salvation from the heat, in which you should not believe

Do you want more important and interesting news about life in the USA and immigration to America? — support us donate! Also subscribe to our page Facebook. Select the “Priority in display” option and read us first. Also, don't forget to subscribe to our РєР ° РЅР ° Р »РІ Telegram  and Instagram- there is a lot of interesting things there. And join thousands of readers ForumDaily New York — there you will find a lot of interesting and positive information about life in the metropolis.