'Fragile, handle with caution': expert forecasts on the global economy for 2020 - ForumDaily
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'Fragile, handle with care': expert forecasts on the global economy for 2020

Strategic uncertainty is a major feature of the year that has just begun. This is stated in the forecast published shortly before the meeting of the World Economic Forum. It is due to take place next week in Davos (Switzerland). Writes about this "Voice of America".

Фото: Depositphotos

This is what the experts of international financial companies and institutions expect from the global economy.

“Fragile, handle with care,” the World Bank writes about the global economy in 2020. Its experts called on world politicians to implement a strategy that would reduce the level of uncertainty.

Global growth weakened in 2019 because trade wars hindered China's economic growth, economists at HIS Markit say and note that in many parts of the world, industry is either declining or slowing down.

Among the positive signals, economists noted that the trade war did not have such a devastating effect on the world economy as previously assumed, and at the end of the year a tendency to stabilize relations between China and the United States, as well as a decrease in uncertainty around brexit, formed.

Now a global recession is not the most likely scenario in 2020, the Davos Forum forecast reassures.

On the subject: 7 smart ways to save and cut costs in 2020

After a year of instability due to the trade confrontation between the US and China, uncertainties about brexit 2020 will begin with weak growth and accelerate until the middle of the year, according to JP Morgan.

Morgan Stanley economists agree with them. “At the end of the year, the factors causing the most global instability in 2019, such as the US-China trade war and uncertainty around Brexit, begin to lose their relevance. This could mean that the global economy is starting to improve,” the bank said in its forecast.

But the Japanese bank Nomura is more restrained in its forecasts and believes that 2020 will be a year of consolidation rather than recovery. Bank experts expect a weakening of the dollar against world currencies, “which could contribute to global liquidity and provide emerging markets with access to resources.”

INS Markit predicts a moderate strengthening of the dollar exchange rate - by 3% compared to other leading currencies over two years. This, according to experts, will be facilitated by factors such as faster growth of the US economy compared to other developed economies.

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For Central and Eastern Europe, the main topic of 2020 will be the slowdown in growth, according to the US International Institute of Finance. They note that production in Germany is slowing down. If this continues to be the case, it will become a negative factor that could slow down growth in supplying companies from Central and Eastern Europe. However, growth in the region will remain powerful and will allow to continue the rapprochement of the welfare of the countries of the region with its western neighbors, experts say.

US economy will grow

The potential growth of the US economy is estimated at about 2%. Real GDP growth was higher than the trend from 2017 to 2019 due to fiscal stimulus. Some special factors will stimulate GDP growth in the first half of next year; The "first phase" of trade with China will also help a little, writes Weforum.

Consumer spending - about 70% of the economy - will increase by about 2,7% in 2020, supporting growth for the overall economy.

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