Trump vs. Harris: Five Reasons They Could Each Win the Election

Today's US presidential election is, without exaggeration, one of the most dramatic and tense in history. According to polls, the difference in support for the two candidates is close to the margin of error both nationally and in swing states. Every vote can be decisive. News Company with the BBC I collected five arguments why each of them candidates can win.

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5 Reasons Trump Won

1. He is not in power

Whether the hottest election topics are migration or abortion, voters always put their wallets first. The economy is what really worries them. The Biden administration has done a surprisingly good job of leading the country out of the coronavirus crisis, serious economists say. Unemployment is low and the stock market is booming.

But since the pandemic, inflation has reached levels not seen since the 1970s. That gives Trump grounds to ask, “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” And indeed, the average voter might shake his head and say, “Yeah, that didn’t happen under Trump.”

Voters in other countries have repeatedly voted against ruling parties in 2024, in part because of the high cost of living in the wake of the coronavirus. The U.S. electorate also appears hungry for change. Only a quarter of Americans are satisfied with the direction the country is headed, while two-thirds see poor economic prospects.

On the subject: Battle of Economic Programs: Who Will Make the US and the World Richer – Harris or Trump

Harris is also trying to be the "change candidate," but the vice president is finding it difficult to distance herself from the now unpopular Joe Biden.

2. Bad news doesn't affect him.

Trump has a truly fantastic ability to turn situations that should be an indelible stain on his reputation to his advantage. Despite the aftermath of the Capitol Hill riots on January 6, 2021, a string of indictments, and an unprecedented criminal trial, Trump’s approval ratings have remained consistently above 40% throughout the year.

Most Republicans agree with their candidate when he calls it all a political "witch hunt" and declares himself its victim. This certainly has an effect on voters, especially those who are still undecided about their sympathies.

3. Republican's words on illegal immigration resonate with voters

Playing on emotions is an essential component of a successful election campaign. Democrats, playing on the natural fear of ordinary people towards outsiders, chose the topic of abortion, while Republicans bet on immigrants.

Border skirmishes have hit all-time highs under Biden, and the influx of migrants has hit states far from the border. So it’s no surprise that Trump is more trusted by voters on immigration, based on polling data. Although, oddly, he scores higher among young Hispanic men. But Trump’s carefully crafted “rugged macho” image may have played a role here.

4. There are many more voters without a college degree than with a PhD.

Trump is attracting the “common man,” voters who feel forgotten and neglected. Some traditional Democratic supporters, such as labor activists, have recently embraced Trump’s idea of ​​protecting domestic industry with import tariffs and have sided with the Republicans. The common man does not think about the fact that he will end up paying for these tariffs out of his own pocket.

If Trump can get enough rural and suburban voters out to the polls in swing states, it might help offset the loss of college-educated moderate Republicans who understand the partisan, propagandistic nature of many of his campaign plans.

5. Trump looks like a strong man in an unstable world

Trump's detractors say he is undermining America's allies by cozying up to authoritarian leaders. But the 45th president sees unpredictability as a strength, pointing out that no major war has started while he has been in the White House.

Many Americans are unhappy, for various reasons, with the U.S. sending billions to Ukraine and Israel, and are convinced that the country has become weaker under Biden. Most voters, especially the men Trump has courted, such as on Joe Rogan's podcasts (The Joe Rogan Experience), consider him a stronger leader than Harris.

5 Reasons Harris Wins

1. She is not Trump

In 2020, Trump won a record number of votes as the Republican nominee, but lost because seven million more Americans turned out to support Biden.

During the current election campaign, Harris called Trump a fascist and argued that his election would threaten the very existence of democracy. This fear-mongering may work.

Four in five Americans believe the country is spinning out of control, according to a July Reuters/Ipsos poll. Harris hopes voters, especially moderate Republicans and those outside the party, will see her as a candidate who can bring stability.

2. At the same time, Harris is not Biden

The Democrats would almost certainly have lost had Biden not dropped out. The party quickly mobilized around Harris. With impressive early speed, she presented forward-looking ideas and galvanized voters.

While Republicans have linked her to Biden's least popular decisions, Harris has successfully fended off some of those attacks.

Her most obvious advantage is her age. Polls have repeatedly shown that voters really care about Biden’s fitness for office. Now the tables have turned, and Trump could be the oldest person to win the presidency.

3. Kamala is an advocate for women's rights

This presidential election will be the first since the Supreme Court ruled in Roe v. Wade regarding the constitutional right to abortion.

Voters who want to protect abortion rights overwhelmingly support Harris. Ten states, including swing state Arizona, will have abortion-related questions on the ballot this election. That could boost turnout for Harris.

Moreover, the very fact that the first American president could be a woman boosts Harris' popularity among female voters.

4. Her voters are more likely to vote

Some of the groups that polls show are most supportive of Harris (such as older adults and the college-educated) are more disciplined voters and therefore more likely to turn out to the polls.

Ultimately, Democrats perform better among voters with traditionally high turnout, while Trump is popular with those who vote less often, such as young men and people without college degrees.

For example, according to a New York Times/Siena poll, Trump is significantly ahead of Harris among those who are registered voters but did not cast their ballots in 2020. So the big question is whether they will turn out to vote this time.

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5. She raised (and spent) more money

American elections cost a lot of money. This year's may be the most expensive in history.

According to a recent analysis by the Financial Times, Harris has raised more money for her campaign since July, when she became a presidential candidate, than Trump has raised since January 2023. The publication notes that Harris's campaign has spent almost twice as much on advertising.

That could play a role in a tight race whose outcome will be effectively decided by voters in swing states that are being bombarded with political advertising.

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