Time is on Tehran's side: a protracted war with Iran could be disastrous for Trump.

Time may be on Iran's side in its conflict with the United States. The reason is that President Donald Trump is facing domestic and international pressure to end the war, writes The Hill.

US and Israeli military superiority is causing serious damage to Iran, with their forces bombing naval facilities, missile launch sites, and other targets.

But the conflict is also causing political harm to the president: oil prices are rising, allies in the Persian Gulf are trying to intercept the flow of Iranian drones, and midterm elections are approaching in the United States.

"Time is on Iran's side. Its forces are on its own soil. They've been preparing for this for a long time. Iran's entire defense doctrine has been built around the idea that they face enemies with superior conventional capabilities," said John Hoffman, a defense and foreign policy fellow at the Cato Institute.

On the subject: The FBI warned that Iran could launch drone attacks on California.

Regional experts believe Iran is deliberately prolonging the war because it believes the country can withstand attacks from American and Israeli fighter jets and warships longer than Trump can withstand the political fallout from rising prices and the war's unpopularity.

"The problem now is that Iran is playing out its own playbook: The president may be losing interest in this conflict, but the Iranian regime is almost certainly not finished with us," admitted Ariane Tabatabaei, who has held various positions at the Pentagon and the State Department.

Trump, at a rally in Kentucky on March 11, told his supporters that Washington had "won" in Iran and that the conflict was "over" within the first hour.

The president launched Operation Epic Fury nearly two weeks ago with the goal of destroying Iran's naval forces, ballistic missiles, and nuclear program, and cutting off the Islamic Republic's support for regional proxy groups.

Since the beginning of the war, approximately 6000 strikes have been carried out on targets inside Iran, US Central Command reported on March 12. US forces have damaged or destroyed over 90 Iranian vessels, hitting more than 60 ships and more than 30 minelayers.

However, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and oil prices reached $100 per barrel overnight. This poses a challenge for Trump, whose military is facing an adversary accustomed to operating from a tactical disadvantage.

"Most Americans aren't affected by this war. They've only seen higher gas prices at the pump. Therefore, the United States doesn't have the same incentive to fight a long and costly war as Iran does," noted Rosemary Kelanik, Middle East Program Director at Defense Priorities.

Retired Vice Admiral John Miller, who led the US Naval Forces Central Command, said on March 12 that even if the current Iranian regime remains in place, the Islamic Republic will no longer pose a threat as a potential nuclear weapons state.

According to Miller, Tehran “will no longer be able to threaten neighboring states, will lose the infrastructure to produce offensive weapons, and will not be able to support its proxy groups to any significant extent.”

Michael Eisenstadt, a senior fellow and director of the Military and Strategic Studies Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, noted that the president responded to the criticism. Trump generally favors swift military operations abroad, like the one carried out in January to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.

Eisenstadt said Trump's problem arose from the start because of his changing explanations for the reasons and timing of the Iran strikes, and because he failed to seek Congressional approval.

"I think it just exacerbated existing problems," he concluded.

On March 12, the president said the United States benefits when oil prices rise, while many fear Operation Epic Fury is affecting energy costs worldwide.

Hoffman of the Cato Institute believes that Iran's strategy of prolonging the war, as well as retaliatory strikes against Israel and American bases in the Gulf states, will increase the economic costs of the war and make it politically costly for Trump both domestically and in the Middle East.

"A victory for Iran, a victory for the regime, is simply a matter of survival. It simply needs to survive at this stage. But toppling the regime will require a much greater effort than the United States is currently exerting, given that the costs are already very high," Hoffman believes.

During a closed-door briefing for senators on Capitol Hill on March 10, Pentagon officials said the estimated cost of the war against Iran had exceeded $11,3 billion in the first six days.

The US and Israel continue to bomb Iran's naval forces and ballistic missile launch sites, and Tehran is retaliating with ballistic missile and drone launches against US allies in the Persian Gulf. Seven US service members have been killed and approximately 140 others wounded in the conflict.

Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran's new supreme leader, made his first official statement since his appointment on March 12. He said the Strait of Hormuz—the narrow passage between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman—would remain closed, and Iranian forces would continue to strike neighboring Gulf states. The statement was broadcast on Iranian state television, according to Reuters agency.

On March 12, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also shared his opinion: in his opinion, the US Navy will eventually escort oil tankers through this narrow strait: "I believe that as soon as it becomes militarily feasible, the US Navy, perhaps together with an international coalition, will escort ships through the strait."

According to Eisenstadt, Iran will still remain a destabilizing factor in the oil market, since its military can launch missiles at tankers even if the US military destroys most of the launchers.

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Hoffman noted that oil prices in the global economy are something that cannot be "softened" because as the conflict continues, more and more Republicans "will be against it."

Defense Priorities' Kelanic said that as the standoff drags on and American troops are likely to die, support for an "unnecessary war" could wane.

"We could end the war if Iran allows us. It's unclear whether they will agree. But if Trump wanted to end it, he could do so, and it wouldn't make the United States any less secure than it is now while waging war," she concluded.

Read also on ForumDaily:

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