'Lights of Moscow': The West Assesses the State of Russia's Economy Based on Space Images - ForumDaily
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'Lights of Moscow': The West Assesses the State of Russia's Economy Based on Space Images

Skeptical of Russian data, Western officials judge the Russian economy by looking at Moscow from space. Satellite images tell more about the economy than official data published by Russian officials, writes Business Insider.

Photo: Vasilii Berezhnoi | Dreamstime.com

As Swedish Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson stated on January 22, the deteriorating state of the Russian economy is visible not only during the day, but also at night.

During a panel discussion at the World Economic Forum in Davos, she noted that her department is skeptical about the official data on the state of the Russian economy that Russia provides.

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Instead, Svantesson says, Swedish financiers use an alternative method of assessment: comparing satellite images of Moscow at night. She noted that the lighting of the White Stone in 2023 was significantly weaker than in 2021, indicating problems in the Russian capital — as well as in the country as a whole.

Business Insider analyzed publicly available images of Moscow in the indicated years. The first was taken in March 2021:

Photo: NASA

The second one is in November 2023:

Photo: NASA

It is, of course, difficult to compare them precisely due to differences in shooting time and cloudiness, but in the 2023 photo, light sources in the suburbs of Moscow seem less frequent and weaker than in the pre-war photo.

"It's pretty clear that the Russian economy is clearly not as strong as Putin wants us to believe," Svantesson said, stressing that real inflation in Moscow is "much higher than the official figures show."

The latest published inflation data for Russia is 9,5%, but Svantesson believes that this is not consistent with the key interest rate of 21%.

Sweden's finance minister has drawn attention to the high level of capital outflow from the country, which she says is a clear sign of problems in the economy, along with the darker images of the White Stone.

“The night shots of Moscow show a much darker picture,” she stated.

Panel moderator Ravi Agrawal, editor-in-chief of Foreign Policy, suggested that it might be because they use less electricity. But Svantesson disagreed: “No, no, it’s much darker.”

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Western countries imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. They were aimed primarily at cutting oil and gas exports, which are vital to the aggressor country's economy.

The Kremlin says it has mitigated the worst of the sanctions. But Svantesson said the “strong economy” narrative is a way to convince Ukraine and its allies that sanctions are ineffective.

"We don't know the exact state of the Russian economy," she concluded. "But what we do know is that their version of events and their 'truth' are not true."

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