The second wave of coronavirus: how to recognize it and which states have already encountered

Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania have already faced a second wave of coronavirus, but 13 states in the United States are still experiencing the first, the study shows. Writes about it The Daily Mail.

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Scientists have developed a mathematical model to determine if US states are in a "second surge" for coronavirus infection.

Researchers at the University of Sydney in Australia looked at the data and determined that any “second surge” state less than one-fifth of the first is not a true second wave.

Using this methodology, they found that by the end of July, at least 31 states, including Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, were already in a second outbreak.

In about 13 states, including California, Texas and Georgia, infection rates have only dropped briefly, but have not gone down sharply, so they are still in the first wave. Arizona and Utah are in the first wave, Maine and Vermont are in the second.

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New York and New Jersey have completely flattened the curves, their first wave was "completely over," and the second has not begun and is not yet expected.

The team argues that the results can help local and state legislators determine when restrictions should be relaxed, highlighting the difference between insufficiently declining infection rates and levels on a steady downward path.

“It appears that in some of the worst-performing states, policymakers have struggled to achieve stabilization or some reduction in infection rates,” said co-author Dr Nick James, a PhD student in the School of Mathematics and Statistics at the University of Sydney. “Instead, health officials should look for local maxima and minima that indicate when waves are peaking and when they are definitely ending.”

For the study, published in the journal Chaos, the team looked at data from all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia from January 21, 2020 to July 31, 2020. The researchers adjusted the information to account for the decline in weekend incidences, as well as corrected statistical errors.

After smoothing the data, the mathematical model looks for peaks and troughs and determines the turning point: the trajectory of upward curves that suddenly fall, or the trajectory of jumps of downward curves.

“It’s not a predictive model,” James said. “This is an analytical tool that should help policymakers identify obvious turning points in COVID infections.”

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Co-author Dr. Max Menzies of Tsinghua University in Beijing said the analysis shows how an untimely reduction in restrictions could lead to a fatal second spike.

“The real moral of this article is that COVID-19 is highly contagious and very difficult to control,” he said. “The true turning point, where new cases are in decline rather than simply fluctuating, should be identified before any restrictions are eased.”

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