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All you need to know about Trump's impeachment: faces, bets and forecasts

The complaint of the anonymous informant turned into an investigation into the impeachment of US President Donald Trump, involving dozens of people on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean and creating a direct threat to the presidency of the American leader. What is impeachment, is it always associated with the expulsion of the president from the White House, who is involved in the current process and how can it all end?

Фото: Depositphotos

Impeachment does not mean the automatic removal of the president from the office, explains Business Insider... The impeachment process can be considered something analogous to the criminal process. The House of Representatives, like the Grand Jury, gathers evidence, reads evidence, and drafts impeachment — or charges — against the president.

If the majority of the members of the House vote to blame the president, the Senate holds a trial in which both parties present their cases, and the senators act as jurors. If two-thirds of the senators vote in favor of convicting the president on charges brought by the house, the president will be removed from office.

How did America end up at this point? What could happen next? Let's try to figure it out.

What happens: explain in 60 seconds

In early September, an anonymous complaint filed by an intelligence officer said that in a series of events that culminated in a telephone conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on July 25, Trump used "his agency's power to attract foreign interference" in the US elections in 2020 ”.

The complaint states in detail that a few days after Trump delayed a $ 400 million dollar worth of military assistance to Ukraine, the US president used a conversation with Zelensky to pressure the Ukrainian government to investigate the actions of former vice president Joe Biden and his son hunter.

On the subject: U.S. Congress Holds First Open Trump Impeachment Hearing

Hunter Biden was on the board of directors of the Ukrainian oil and gas company Burisma Holdings from 2014 to 2019. Trump and his allies without evidence accused Biden of using his power as vice president to urge Ukraine to fire the prosecutor who was investigating the Burisma case and defend Hunter.

The complaint was confirmed by White House brief notes about the July 25 call, White House officials themselves and affidavits of several professional diplomats and representatives of national security.

Several sworn diplomats testified that the Trump administration related military aid to Ukraine with Zelensky’s public announcement of investigations into Burisma and a discredited conspiracy theory that Ukraine intervened in the 2016 election in favor of Hillary Clinton.

Vladimir Zelensky and Donald Trump. Collage: Instagram @ zelenskiy_official / Twitter @ realDonaldTrump

Key actors

Here are the key individuals involved in impeachment, by group.

White House officials:

  • President Donald Trump, who asked Zelensky to provide him with a “favor” related to the investigation of the Burisma case and the 2016 election of the year.
  • Vice President Mike Pence, whom Trump used as a channel to further broadcast a message to Ukraine that it needs to investigate corruption in order to gain US support.
  • Jennifer Williams, a State Department spokeswoman appointed to the vice president’s office, who listened to the July 25 conversation and testified before Congress.
  • Mick Mulvaney, the acting head of the White House apparatus, who at a press briefing undermined Trump’s impeachment defense, confirming that the administration refused assistance in exchange for an investigation on the Democratic National Committee’s server.
  • Pat Cipollone, White House lawyer and White House front line legal defense against impeachment investigation.
  • Army Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Windman, an expert on Eastern European affairs at the National Security Council, who listened to the July 25 conversation and expressed concern about this to his superiors.

Alexander Windman. Photo: video frame YouTube / TV5MONDE Info

Current and former Trump administration officials:

  • Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who also called Ukraine on 25 July. Pompeo is also accused of misrepresenting his involvement in this case and obstructing an investigation in Congress.
  • John Bolton, a former national security adviser who is said to have pushed back the idea of ​​helping Ukraine investigate. He may soon testify before Congress.
  • Former senior director of the National Security Council for Eurasian and Russian Affairs, Fiona Hill, who testified to Congress about efforts to pressure Ukraine to investigate the Biden case.
  • Attorney General William Barr, whom Trump confused in investigating impeachment, asked Ukraine to cooperate with Barr in investigating corruption and asked Barr to hold a press conference to clear Trump from misconduct.
  • The head of the energy department, Rick Perry, whom Trump tried to blame for calling to Ukraine. Perry is about to leave the administration later this year.

Mike Pompeo Photo: kremlin.ru

Intelligence officials:

  • Acting Director of National Intelligence Joseph Maguire, who submitted the applicants' complaint to Congress and was the first witness to publicly testify about its contents.
  • Michael Atkinson, inspector general of the intelligence community, to whom the complainant initially filed a complaint.
  • Anonymous informant.

Existing and former diplomats:

  • Kurt Walker, a former U.S. Special Representative in Ukraine, who testified to Congress about the degree to which Trump's personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani participated in the Trump Ukraine saga.
  • Gordon Sondland, US ambassador to the European Union, Trump’s appointee, who testified that pressure on Ukraine to investigate Bydens was “insidious” and at least illegal if not illegal.
  • Bill Taylor, acting ambassador to Ukraine, a Vietnam veteran and career diplomat who gave Congress key evidence that he had a “clear understanding” that “the money for security would not come until Zelenskiy took undertake an obligation to investigate. "
  • Marie Jovanovic, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, a professional diplomat, gave convincing evidence that Trump and Giuliani ousted her from the post because she interfered with their efforts to force Ukraine to investigate the Biden case.

Marie Jovanovic. Photo: video screenshot YouTube / Voice of America

Ukrainian side:

  • President Vladimir Zelensky, the first comedian for the first time as president, who became the Ukrainian leader in April this year.
  • Viktor Shokin and Yuriy Lutsenko, former prosecutor generals of Ukraine who participated in the investigation of Burisma Holdings.

Members of Congress:

  • Rep. Adam Schiff, Chairperson of the House Intelligence Committee, responsible for investigating impeachment, interrogating witnesses, and conducting hearings.
  • Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi, who oversees the investigation of impeachment in the House of Representatives and recently called for a vote on the resolution to formalize the conditions for the public phase of the investigation.
  • Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who sets the Senate impeachment agenda.

Nancy Pelosi Photo: Twitter / Nancy Pelosi @SpeakerPelosi

Others:

  • Former Vice President Joe Biden, Presidential candidate for the 2020 Democratic Party of the Year, who dealt with US-Ukraine relations in the Obama administration.
  • Hunter Biden, the eldest son of Joe Biden, who served on the board of directors of the Ukrainian energy company Burisma Holdings from 2014 to 2019 for a year.
  • Rudi Giuliani, Trump's personal lawyer, who was an unofficial envoy to Ukraine and involved various diplomats in his efforts to demand that Ukraine investigate the Biden case and the 2016 election of the year. He is now at the center of a federal investigation.
  • Lev Parnas and Igor Fruman, two business partners of Giuliani, who were recently accused of violations of federal campaign funding in connection with their lobbying work in Ukraine. Parnassus collaborates with the investigation of impeachment.

Events betting

Appealing to the foreign government for financial assistance for a campaign is not only unprecedented by the US President, but may even violate campaign finance laws, which imply a ban on receiving campaign contributions or assistance from foreign nationals.

If Trump really used military aid as a bargaining chip, as many sworn officials testified, he could also have been prosecuted for extortion, bribery and misappropriation of taxpayer funds.

The White House and the Trump administration also refused to carry out many aspects of the investigation and tried to block the testimony of many administration officials, which means that Trump could be charged with obstructing Congress.

On the subject: Open hearing on the impeachment of trump: testimony of former US ambassador to Ukraine Marie Jovanovic

In addition to an immediate threat to Trump and those in his orbit, the scandal with Ukraine could have long-term geopolitical ramifications that will last for years.

Ukraine is heavily dependent on US military assistance to defend against Russian invasions. Ukraine has been involved in a war with Russia, a US opponent, since 2014, when Russia invaded and annexed the Crimea peninsula.

In a speech to Congress, Lt. Col. Alexander Windman, an expert on Eastern European affairs at the National Security Council, expressed concern about the military and political consequences of the administration's denial of assistance to Ukraine.

Bill Taylor, the acting ambassador to Ukraine, also showed that the United States, which refuses to help and signals less support for Ukraine, could push Russia into even more aggressive military operations and further destabilize the region.

Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs George Kent and Bill Taylor. Photo: video frame YouTube / CBS News

Possible results

On October 31, the House of Representatives voted in favor of a formal ruling detailing the conditions and parameters of its investigation. But the process is still at the stage of establishing facts, hearing evidence and reviewing documents related to the investigation.

The investigation is conducted jointly by the House Intelligence Committee, the House Foreign Affairs Committee and the Government Oversight and Reform Committee.

The impeachment process traditionally begins in the Judicial Committee of the Chamber, which draws up impeachment articles based on the results of the investigation.

The House of Representatives has not determined whether it will limit the scope of the investigation to statements made in the complaint and confirmed by officials of the administration, or include articles related to obstruction of investigations in Congress.

On the subject: Unexpectedly: impeachment can help Trump win the 2020 presidential election of the year

If the committee passes the articles of impeachment, they hold a full plenary session of the House and demand a simple majority of 218 votes. Members vote on each article separately, which means that Trump can be impeached on some articles, but not on others.

For example, they tried to impeach President Bill Clinton for perjury and obstruction of justice, but he was charged with a separate article about perjury and abuse of office. In January 1999, the Senate acquitted Clinton on both charges.

To remove Trump from office, two-thirds of the US Senate - 67 members - must vote to convict and impeach him. The Senate currently consists of 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and two independent senators who meet with Democrats.

If Trump is not impeached, or will be, but without being held accountable in the Senate, he will remain in his post and the American people will be able to re-elect him or vote for another candidate in 2020.

As ForumDaily wrote earlier:

  • On September 20, the congressmen became interested in a telephone conversation between President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky and US President Donald Trump as part of an investigation into whether Trump and his lawyer Rudolf Giuliani tried put pressure on Ukraine in order to help Trump's election campaign in 2020 year.
  • 24 September Democrats announced the start of an official request for US impeachment, which was triggered by a conversation between Ukrainian and American leaders.
  • 25 September US State Department published conversation transcript President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky and President of the United States Donald Trump.
  • On September 26, an anonymous informant stated in his complaint that in the USA tried to hide the content of the conversation trump and Zelensky.
  • 28 September Special Representative of the US State Department for Ukraine Kurt Walker resigned.
  • 3 October стало известноthat the level of approval of US President Donald Trump has risen to 49 percent - this is the highest figure in 2019 year.
  • 7 October US President demanded “immediate impeachment”House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. The head of the White House accused her of "serious crimes and misconduct, and possibly of high treason."
  • 9 October in the White House officially announced refusal to cooperate with the investigation on the possibility of declaring impeachment to US President Donald Trump, which is held by Democrats in the House of Representatives. The presidential administration considers these accusations to be "baseless" and "unconstitutional."
  • 31 October US House of Representatives approved the resolutionaccording to which the investigation into the possibility of impeachment to US President Donald Trump goes to the public stage.
  • 13 November House of Representatives launched an open hearing as part of an investigation into impeachment against President Donald Trump. It became known that they were watched that day 13,8 million Americans.
  • November 15 in House Intelligence Committee passed second public hearing as part of an investigation into the possible impeachment of US President Donald Trump: the former US ambassador to Ukraine, Marie Jovanovic, spoke.
  • 19 November in the House Intelligence Committee during third public hearing Jennifer Williams, Alexander Windman, Kurt Walker and Tim Morrison performed.

Read also on ForumDaily:

New scandal over Ukraine: in the United States brought a case against Trump's personal lawyer

Open hearing on the impeachment of trump: testimony of former US ambassador to Ukraine Marie Jovanovic

The White House published a transcript of Trump's first conversation with Zelensky: what the presidents talked about

13,8 million Americans watch the broadcast of the hearing on the impeachment of trump

U.S. Congress Holds First Open Trump Impeachment Hearing

Miscellaneous impeachment Educational program impeachment trump
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