The probability of a powerful earthquake in San Francisco exceeded all expectations

On July 4, an earthquake of magnitude 6,4 score occurred in Southern California. Shook near the town of Ridgecrest, about 75 miles (120 km) east of Bakersfield. A few hours later, an earthquake of magnitude 7,1 score occurred in the same area.

Фото: Depositphotos

And that's not all - the US Geological Survey (USGS) warned that next week the probability of “one or more tremors exceeding the 7,1 value” is two percent. The same report clarifies that "no one can predict the exact time or place of any earthquake."

However, seismologists can predict the overall likelihood of an earthquake based on existing data and other recent earthquakes.

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After the July 4 earthquake, Lucy Jones, a seismologist at the California Institute of Technology, said: “The probability of a strong earthquake in the same area in one or more days is about 20%.”

The earthquake occurred a few hours after the impact of the 6,4 magnitude.

What does this mean for the Bay Area? Just what seismologists have been warning for years. And it still sounds believable: a "big earthquake" is coming.

According to the USGS newsletter, first published in 2014 and then updated in 2016, there is an 72% probability of one or more earthquakes of magnitude 6,7 between 2014 and 2043 in the San Francisco Bay area.

Of the five main fault lines that span the region, seismologists expect an 33 percent probability that the Hayward fault, which runs under Berkeley and Auckland, will disappear during this period.

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The nearest Calaveras Fault, which extends to Danville and San Ramon, is the next most dangerous. The probability of seismic activity there is 26%. The San Andreas Fault has an 22 percent probability, the Concourt Fault has an 16 percent, and the San Gregorio Fault has an 6%.

There is also an 13 percentage probability that smaller and less noteworthy cracks, including those still to be found, may become major.

Even after a little tremor, take a few simple steps, such as:

• Prepare an emergency kit for an earthquake. If you have already assembled the kit, make sure that it is not damaged and that individual components do not require replacement.
• Develop an emergency contact plan with loved ones. The California Academy of Sciences warns: do not rely on cell phones or other devices that need electricity. Develop a reunion plan after a natural disaster in case family members are separated from each other during an earthquake without the help of these tools.
• Learn how to react during an earthquake. The Department of Homeland Security Disaster Guidelines read: “If you are in a car, stop. If you are in bed, then stay there. If on the street, stay on the street. Do not hide in the doorway. Do not run outside. ” The best thing you can do is to be under the nearest available shelter and cover your head and neck until the tremor stops.

As ForumDaily wrote earlier:

• What happens if strong earthquakes hit Los Angeles and San Francisco.
• 4 July 2019 Years in Southern California recorded bumps magnitude 6,6. The epicenter was located in 18 kilometers northeast of the city of Ridzhkrest, the center was located at a depth of 8,7 kilometers.
• On July 5, hundreds of weaker aftershocks were observed in Southern California - aftershock. The strength of most of them ranged from 2 to 3 points, some in the range from 3 to 4 points.
• It turned out that the early warning system, launched at the beginning of this year as part of a pilot program, didn't warn Los Angeles residents about the strong earthquake.
• July 5 evening in southern California 7,1 magnitude earthquake hit, the most powerful in recent 20 years. Tremors were recorded at 20: 19 local time. The epicenter of the earthquake was located 193 kilometers north of Los Angeles, its focus lies at a depth of ten kilometers.
• Fire, destruction, injury - such were the effects of the second per day powerful earthquake in california.

Read also on ForumDaily:

Ten strongest earthquakes in California history

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A strong earthquake hits California: what can residents expect

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