Secret documents with plans for US and NATO military assistance to Ukraine appeared on social networks

Secret military documents were released on social media this week, detailing secret U.S. and NATO plans to build up the capacity of the Ukrainian military ahead of a planned counteroffensive against Russian forces in Ukraine, according to senior officials in the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden. Read more about this publication The New York Times.

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The Pentagon is investigating who may have been behind the leak of documents that appeared on Twitter and on Telegram, a widely accessible platform in Russia with more than half a billion users.

Military analysts say the documents appear to have been altered in some parts from their original format, inflating American estimates of Ukrainian war dead and underestimating Russian military dead.

Analysts say the changes may indicate Moscow's attempts to misinform the public. But the disclosures in the original documents, which come in the form of photographs of expected arms delivery schedules, troop and battalion numbers, and other plans, represent a serious violation of U.S. intelligence efforts to help Ukraine.

Biden officials have been working to remove them, but as of Thursday evening, April 6, they have not succeeded.

“We are aware of the social media posts and the department is looking into the matter,” said Sabrina Singh, Pentagon Deputy Press Secretary.

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The documents do not provide specific battle plans for how, when and where Ukraine intends to launch the offensive, which US officials say is likely to take place in the next month or so. And since the documents are five weeks old, they give an idea of ​​the time - the view of the Americans and Ukrainians on March 1 on what the Ukrainian forces may need.

To the trained eye of the Russian military planner, field general, or intelligence analyst, however, these documents certainly offer many enticing clues and insights. The documents mention, for example, the level of spending on HIMARS, US-supplied highly mobile rocket-propelled artillery systems that can strike targets such as ammunition depots, infrastructure and troop concentrations from a long distance. The Pentagon has not publicly stated how fast Ukrainian troops are using HIMARS munitions, but this can be understood from the documents.

Analysts said it could be difficult to assess the impact of document disclosure on frontline combat now and in the coming months. Russia's own recent offensive has barely passed in eastern Ukraine, and Western analysts are debating whether the Russian military, after suffering staggering losses, is capable of mounting another offensive or repelling a Ukrainian attack.

It is unclear how the documents ended up on social media. But pro-Russian government channels are already spreading them.

Analysts have warned that documents released by Russian sources could be selectively altered to support Kremlin disinformation.

“Regardless of whether these documents are genuine or not, people should be careful about anything published from Russian sources,” said Michael Kofman, director of Russian research at the Arlington, Virginia Research Institute.

For example, one of the slides said that between 16 and 000 Russian soldiers were killed, while Ukraine lost 17 troops. The Pentagon and other analysts have calculated that Russia suffered far more casualties, about 500 killed and wounded, while Ukraine lost more than 71 killed and wounded.

However, some parts of the documents look genuine and will give Russia valuable information, such as schedules for the delivery of weapons and troops, the number of Ukrainian troops and other military details, analysts say.

The document labeled "top secret" offers "Status of the conflict as of March 1." On that day, Ukrainian officials were at the American base in Wiesbaden, Germany, for a military exercise, and a day later, General Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and General Christopher Cavoli, Supreme Commander of Allied Forces in Europe, attended a follow-up meeting .

Another document has columns listing Ukrainian military units, equipment and training, and schedules for January-April. The document contains a summary of the 12 combat brigades that are being assembled, nine of which appear to be being trained and supplied by the United States and other NATO allies. The documents say that six of these nine brigades will be ready by March 31, and the rest by April 30. According to analysts, the Ukrainian brigade has between 4 and 5 soldiers.

The document states that the timing of equipment delivery will affect training and readiness to meet deadlines. It says that a total of more than 250 tanks and more than 350 mechanized vehicles were required for nine brigades.

That the documents could have been posted on social media and presumably ended up in the hands of Russian officials is a stroke of luck for Moscow at a time when Russia seemed to be lagging behind the United States in intelligence gathering on Ukraine.

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This leak is the first Russian intelligence breakthrough made public since the start of the war. Throughout the war, the United States provided Ukraine with information about command posts, ammunition depots, and other key nodes along Russian military lines. This real-time intelligence allowed the Ukrainians to target Russian troops, kill high-ranking generals and force munitions to be moved farther from Russia's front lines, though US officials say Ukraine played a critical role in planning and executing those strikes.

But early in the war, Ukrainian officials were hesitant to share their combat plans with the United States for fear of leaks, US and European officials said. As recently as last summer, US intelligence officials reported that they often had a better understanding of Russia's military plans than those of Ukraine.

Worried that the exchange of plans of operations could reveal weaknesses and prevent continued US support, the Ukrainians carefully guarded them, even as US intelligence gathered precise data on what the Kremlin was ordering and what the Russian high command was planning.

Last fall, intelligence sharing between Ukraine and the United States weakened significantly, and both countries are cooperating closely with options for a Ukrainian offensive.

But this kind of intelligence leak, posted on social media and available around the world, is bound to harm intelligence sharing between Ukraine and the United States.

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