Combined data: in several states found an error in statistics on COVID-19 - ForumDaily
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Combined data: in several states found an error in statistics on COVID-19

At least four states have combined the results of two different types of coronavirus tests, which could create a false picture of the spread of coronavirus in the United States - and this is especially dangerous at a time when the country is easing restrictions during quarantine, writes. CNN.

Photo: Shutterstock

According to Johns Hopkins University, more than 1,5 million people in the United States tested positive for coronavirus, and more than 93 died.

Virginia, Texas, Georgia and Vermont said their totals were the result of double counting: data from virus tests and antibody tests were combined.

Tests for the presence of the virus are taken from saliva or a nasal swab: they show who is currently sick with COVID-19. Antibody tests are very different and use blood samples to determine whether a person has been exposed to the virus in the past.

Combining the results of the two tests could provide an inaccurate picture of where and when the virus is spreading and could also overstate a state's ability to test and track active infections — a key factor as states ease restrictions during lockdowns.

Experts have repeatedly emphasized that safe re-opening of states requires adequate testing and tracking.

"You only know how many cases you have if you do a lot of testing," said Elizabeth Cohen, senior medical correspondent for CNN. “If you put the results of the two types of tests together, you fool yourself into thinking you did more than you actually did.”

The other day in Texas, Virginia, and Vermont, they said they discovered a data problem and decided to fix it. In Georgia, health officials said they are adding antibody test data to their “total tests” according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention methodology.

The CDC did not respond to a CNN request for comment on whether the recommendation included combining the results of two different tests. The Centers website provides a common database with the results of daily testing without a breakdown by type of test.

On the subject: Trump said the U.S. has gone round the world in testing for COVID-19: why isn't it a victory

The desire to open an economy or control the spread of the virus

In the second week of May, the Department of Labor said another 2,4 million Americans had applied for unemployment benefits. A total of about 38,6 million people have applied for primary unemployment assistance since mid-March, when quarantine restrictions began across the country.

All 50 states have now taken some steps to begin lifting these restrictions.

However, a panel of experts predicted a surge in new cases of coronavirus in states that opened too soon. A forecasting model developed by a team from the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia and the University of Pennsylvania predicts a rapid increase in the number of new cases of COVID-19 in places such as densely populated areas of Texas, some areas of Alabama and Tennessee.

But other states, according to the same study, may avoid a surge in cases - those where restrictions were lifted slowly and selectively.

Calculations based on data from 389 US districts showed that the number of cases fell from a peak (more than 200 per day) in mid and late April to 50–75 per day by early May in Broward County, Florida, which includes Miami. The same study suggests that by the first week of June, the number of daily cases will again increase to 200 per day.

A similar picture will be in Rutherford County, Tennessee. And in the area southeast of Nashville, Alabama, the model shows just over 50 new cases a day until mid-May, but predicts more than 350 daily cases by the first week of June. At the same time, almost zero new cases are predicted by June in Eagle County, Colorado, which was severely damaged at the beginning of the pandemic. Experts also predicted a steady downward trend in new cases in Montgomery County, Maryland, which resisted wider economic opening measures authorized by the state governor.

Experts warn that premature removal of restrictions could lead to the deaths of thousands of Americans.

On the subject: Coronavirus antibody test: why do you need to do it

Most deaths could have been prevented.

If the United States encouraged people to stay home and embarked on a social distance policy just a week earlier, more than half of deaths and infections could have been prevented, according to a new study by Columbia University.

And if the country had been blocked two weeks earlier, 84% of deaths and 82% of infections could have been prevented, said a research team led by epidemiologist Jeffrey Shaman.

“Our findings highlight the importance of early intervention and aggressive response in combating the COVID-19 pandemic,” they wrote in a report published online on the MedRxiv server. The results have not been verified by other experts.

The first case in the United States was recorded in late January. It was not until mid-March that the Trump administration urged Americans to avoid meetings and restrict travel. Then in the cities schools began to close. The study used epidemiological modeling to assess the level of virus transmission from March 15 to May 3 and to determine the effect of social distance on transmission of the disease.

The first days were one of the most important, experts say.

“During the initial growth of a pandemic, infections increase exponentially. As a consequence, early intervention and rapid response are critical,” they wrote.

But the truth is also that it is not known how people would react to early measures.

“Social distancing rules may not be immediately accepted by society due to suboptimal awareness of the risk of infection,” experts noted.

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