Storm Arlene formed in the Gulf of Mexico: how it will affect the weather in the USA

Tropical Storm Arlene formed in the Gulf of Mexico on June 2. This made it the first named storm in the 2023 hurricane season. Writes about it The New York Times.

Photo: IStock

Arlene is moving southeast towards Cuba at a speed of 9 miles (14,4 km) per hour, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). It is likely to bring some rainfall to south Florida.

The storm is accompanied by wind gusts up to 40 miles (64 km) per hour. Storms accompanied by winds of 39 miles (62,7 km) per hour receive a name. When wind speeds reach 74 miles (119 km) per hour, the storm becomes a hurricane, and at 111 miles (178 km) per hour, it becomes a major hurricane.

Arlene is technically the second tropical cyclone to reach tropical storm strength this year. The Hurricane Center announced in May that it had determined that the storm that formed off the northeastern United States in mid-January was a subtropical storm, making it the first Atlantic cyclone of 2023. Arlene is the first named storm in the Atlantic Basin this year.

On the subject: Hurricane season 2023: a list of names and forecasts of storm activity in the Atlantic

The Atlantic hurricane season began June 1 and will run until November 30.

At the end of May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has predicted that there will be 12 to 17 named storms this year, which is a "nearly normal" number. There were 14 named storms last year after two extremely intense Atlantic hurricane seasons.

Screenshot: nhc

However, NOAA did not express much confidence in its forecast for this year and said there is a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, a 30 percent chance of an above-normal season, and another 30 percent chance of a below-normal season.

There have been signs that Atlantic ocean temperatures will be above average this season, which could trigger storms, as well as the potential for an above-normal West African monsoon. The monsoon season brings storm activity that can lead to more powerful and prolonged Atlantic storms.

But forecasters are expecting an El Niño, a climate event that could have wide-ranging effects on weather around the world, that will reduce the number of hurricanes.

"It's quite rare for both of these events to occur at the same time," said Matthew Rosenkrans, lead hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

In the Atlantic, El Niño increases the amount of wind shear, or the change in wind speed and direction from the ocean or land surface into the atmosphere. Calm conditions are essential for the formation of hurricanes, and instability caused by increased wind shear makes such conditions less likely. El Niño has the opposite effect in the Pacific by decreasing the amount of wind shear.

Even during average or below average seasons, there is a chance that a major storm will make landfall.

As global warming worsens, this chance increases. There is a strong consensus among scientists that hurricanes are getting more powerful due to climate change.

Screenshot: nhc

Climate change affects the amount of precipitation that hurricanes can bring. In warmer conditions, the air can hold more moisture, meaning the storm can hold and produce more precipitation, as happened with Hurricane Harvey in Texas in 2017, when some areas received more than 40 inches (101 cm) of rain in less than 48 hours.

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The researchers found that over the past few decades, storms have slowed down by lingering over areas for longer.

As a storm slows over water, the amount of moisture it can absorb increases. As the storm slows over land, the amount of rain falling at one location increases. In 2019, for example, Hurricane Dorian slowed over the northwestern Bahamas, resulting in almost 23 inches (58 cm) of rainfall in Hope Town during the storm.

Other potential impacts of climate change include stronger storm surge, rapid intensification and increased coverage.

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