Which countries have the least chance of coronavirus and why

Clinics and hospitals around the world are battling Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. However, winning this battle largely depends on the effectiveness of the healthcare system. Writes about this with the BBC.

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In which countries of the world are humanity more likely to succeed?

So far, we have seen a clear correlation between the ability of the state to contain the spread of the virus and the previous ratings of its health care system: the higher the rating, the better the results.

This article used a ranking compiled in 2019 by London-based think tank Legatum - The Legatum Prosperity Index.

In it, according to 12 criteria, economic and social achievements of 167 countries of the world were evaluated in terms of well-being and prosperity.

The “health” criterion measured the effectiveness of the health care system, morbidity rates, risk factors, mortality, and the availability of health services.

Residents (including doctors) of some of the best countries in terms of “health” told us what aspects of the organization of the healthcare system help them cope with the virus, what problems may await them in the future, and what these people think about life in their country.

Japan

In terms of health, Japan is in second place. Her quick response to the pandemic was praised by experts around the world, but a recent new surge in the number of infected people forced the authorities to take additional measures: on April 7, the Prime Minister declared a state of emergency for almost the entire territory of Japan.

Despite this, the country has not yet introduced a regime of self-isolation or quarantine, mainly due to the fact that the healthcare system was able to contain the spread of the virus at the initial stage.

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Even if residents of the country are not able to do the COVID-19 test (which is prescribed only for those with severe symptoms), they can go to a local clinic and have a CT scan.

“In an asymptomatic patient, a CT scan can detect pneumonia even if they are in the early stages of the disease,” says Tokyo doctor Mika Washio, who works for AirDoctor, a company that provides services to travelers to find the right doctor. “And in this case, the patient is quickly offered treatment. This is one of the reasons why there are not many severe cases in Japan."

In addition, Japanese experts monitor infection clusters to localize them and minimize the spread of infection.

The Japanese are used to taking care of their health, and this also helps to cope with the crisis.

“Many people used to wear masks, especially in winter and spring, and this is another reason that we do not have a catastrophic increase in the number of infected people,” says Vasio. “Another reason: more than 60% of Japanese people undergo health checks every year, we try to keep ourselves in good shape.”

All this, of course, does not mean that there are no problems ahead.

Vasio notes that under different circumstances, many patients diagnosed with coronavirus should have been admitted to the hospital, however, the authorities are trying to save space for the most severe patients and are ready to allocate additional resources in the near future to combat the pandemic.

South Korea

In the Legatum health ranking, South Korea is in fourth place. In 2015, the country had experience in dealing with the outbreak of another dangerous virus - MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome), and this has come in handy now.

Hospitals are equipped with the necessary equipment, and health workers are trained to act during such a crisis. The country managed to test more than 450 thousand people for the virus - just under 1% of the 51 million population.

In recent days, the daily number of new infections varies between 47 and 53.

The way the healthcare system in South Korea works has also helped the early diagnosis and treatment of Covid-19.

The population is fully covered by the national health insurance system, so the cost of treatment is low, the prices for medical services are regulated by the government, and scans and tests are carried out within the framework of the public health system, emphasizes Seoul Dr. Brandon B. Su, head of Lunit, which develops artificial intelligence tools for use in medicine.

“With the onset of the Covid-19 outbreak, many patients were diagnosed in the early stages of the disease and treated promptly,” says the expert.

The government and business representatives were able to quickly introduce the necessary precautions.

“The government ensured a stable supply of masks by introducing a special sales system where each day corresponded to the last digit of the year of birth,” said Yongbok Lee, an office worker in Seoul.

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“In many places, people’s temperatures are taken when entering a building, and in places where there are particularly large numbers of employees, thermal imagers are installed. The Korean Centers for Disease Control and other government agencies are working hard on the front lines, and people understand this and appreciate their efforts.”

Private health insurance is also widespread here, and 77% of citizens with it help insure what the state system does not cover.

Overall, a quick response to a pandemic threat allows Koreans to hope for the best and not despair.

“Objectively speaking, the outbreak is clearly fading,” Su says. “People started going out, although they still wear masks all the time.”

Van Won John, a resident of Daegu, one of the epicenters of the Covid-19 outbreak in the country, notes that life is slowly returning to normal.

“We go for short walks around our area, although we try to avoid busy or closed areas. “I think it’s right to stay home and limit your movements for the safety of individuals and the entire community,” she says.

Still, she can’t wait to go to the amusement parks that her child loves so much: “I would like to sit somewhere with friends, chat, have a drink, enjoy each other’s company.”

Freshman Wubek Lee from Chuncheon also missed a normal life.

“I want to go back to regular school, not online,” he says. “The first thing I plan to do when all this is over is to start getting to know my classmates “in real life.”

Israel

Israel ranks 11th in the Legatum health ranking. What are the peculiarities of this country's reaction to the threat of Covid-19?

Few from other states acted just as fast.

At the end of January 2020, the Ministry of Health already issued a “Decree on the Health of Citizens,” expanding the authority of the department in curbing a potential outbreak of the disease.

The measures seemed too strict at the time, but it is now clear that, for example, self-isolation for two weeks for everyone who returned to the country from pandemic hot spots and the exclusion of non-critical foreign travel worked and resulted in lower infection rates and hospitalizations. than in other countries of comparable size.

Accurate testing was also introduced early enough.

“A molecular diagnostic test (RT-PCR) to detect the presence of coronavirus in respiratory samples was developed very quickly at the Central Virology Laboratory and distributed to numerous laboratories throughout the country,” says Kitam Muhsen, professor of epidemiology and preventive medicine at Tel Aviv University and one of the Ministry of Health consultants on Covid-19 issues.

“Israel is one of the world leaders in the number of coronavirus tests per million population,” the expert adds.

“I'm really, really proud of the amount of testing we do here, which is why our infection numbers are so high,” said blogger Talia Klein Perez, who lives in Kfar Saba, northeast of Tel Aviv. “On the other hand, our mortality rate is one of the lowest, and I believe that the quickly introduced quarantine partially helped.”

The state healthcare system allows a more integrated and centralized approach to solving the problem.

“People are not afraid to seek medical help because they know that they are insured, it will be free for them,” says Professor Arnon Afek, deputy general director of Israel’s Sheba Medical Center, the first hospital in the country to treat coronavirus patients. “The cost of medical care in these situations is very important because it is necessary for people to seek help when they develop symptoms. “In this case, we detect them and they stop spreading the infection.”

However, according to Afek, in Israel it is still not allocated enough for health care.

“But on the other hand, this means that we work very efficiently, actively and quickly adapt to the situation,” he emphasizes.

“At Sheba, we always try to think two steps ahead and solve problems before they hit us. We forecast the future and created a specialized intensive care unit for those infected with coronavirus, and trained additional staff to work in it - even before the load on the system increased significantly. And when the patients started coming in, we were ready for it.”

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This country has unique challenges. For example, ultra-Orthodox Jews do not have television, the Internet, and trust in the authorities, so the number of infected among the Hasidim is much higher.

“We had to learn to explain to them the danger of what was happening,” Afek says. “And we succeeded, now they are determined to stop the spread of the virus.”

Klein Perez is mentally prepared for the fact that the need for self-isolation will persist for a long time, and is trying to maintain a positive attitude.

“It’s better not to expect everything to end quickly, then the exit from the lockdown will be a pleasant surprise,” she said. - Air travel, restaurants - all this is still far away, they say, not until September. What I want now is to sit quietly over coffee with friends.”

Germany

In Germany, mortality from coronavirus is lower than that of most of its European neighbors. She is in the 12th place in the health rating, and her success in combating the pandemic has been noticed all over the world.

However, experts warn: early to relax, the country has not yet emerged from the crisis.

“High testing rates and low case fatality rates may create the illusion that German health care is coping well with the crisis,” reflects Francis de Vericourt, professor of scientific management at the European School of Management and Technology in Berlin and keynote speaker at the upcoming International Congress on Infectious Diseases.

However, the country has achieved obvious success in separating sick and asymptomatic patients from the rest of the healthy population, which helps curb the spread of infection.

But this can also have the opposite effect if residents are not careful. “The fewer people who have had Covid-19, the fewer people are immune,” explains de Vericourt.

“Consequently, it will be possible to abandon social distancing measures only after there is not a single case of Covid-19 left in the country, otherwise we will face a second large wave of incidence.”

The Germans have already come to terms with the idea that normal life will not return soon, but they are trying to maintain hope.

“The hardest thing for me personally is making sure my mother doesn’t leave the house,” says Ingrid Grüs, a resident of Murnau am Staffelsee, in the foothills of the Bavarian Alps. “I sewed a mask for her, and today for the first time in the last three weeks we are going to the store with her.” It’s important for her to do her own shopping.”

“As the number of new infections declines, I believe it is right to relax precautions. “I trust our authorities, they will try to find the right balance between a gradual return to normal life and maintaining the rules that protect people,” the woman says.

The country's healthcare system is helped by the fact that it is federal, with powers delegated to the regions - unlike the national systems of France or the UK. Experience has shown that it is more effective when a quick response to a growing crisis is needed.

“The management of resources (hospital beds, intensive care units, doctors) is decentralized, responsibility falls on local authorities. This means that all political parties, both left and right, become responsible. And this facilitates collaboration, which can be called a key factor in containing the pandemic and treating patients.”

“I am very lucky that I live in Germany, I was very pleased that the Bavarian government introduced self-isolation - it was the right and necessary reaction to the very difficult situation we found ourselves in,” says Laura Grüs, a student at the Technical University of Munich.

“I was planning to fly to Buenos Aires to spend one semester there starting in July. Now I may not be able to do anything, which is very disappointing. But I know that I am still very lucky, so I try not to complain about the restrictions that I have to adhere to in life. In general, this is a good opportunity to relax and find time for those things for which there was not enough time before.”

The real test for health care, according to de Vericourt, is the need to provide the system not only with places in hospitals and ventilators, but also with such simple things as, for example, hand sanitizers, which in many European countries have disappeared from drugstore shelves.

“The disinfectant gel itself was still available, it was just that the plastic bottles had run out,” explains de Vericourt. “Which once again emphasizes: in this crisis, sometimes things that we had not even thought about before come to the fore.”

Australia

Australia is ranked 18th in the world health rankings. The country is doing better than expected in containing the rate of infection growth, Prime Minister Scott Morrison said on April 7.

A mixed Australian health system combining Medicare and private prepared the country for a bad scenario.

“For the current pandemic, this two-tier system is most suitable, it allows us to prepare for an increase in the number of patients in emergency rooms and intensive care units,” says Alex Polyakov, senior lecturer at the University of Melbourne.

“Federal and state governments have ordered the postponement of all elective surgeries, allowing private hospitals to be on standby for an influx of Covid-19 patients.”

This, combined with federal financial support from private clinics in exchange for their beds and the use of their doctors, doubled the capacity of the state system.

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Australia also has a small number of cases of local transmission of the virus. The government has introduced a rapid contact tracing system and mandatory quarantine for those who have returned from overseas travel or had contact with someone infected.

“When the number of infections is contained, you can expect very low daily growth rates over a long period of time,” says Polyakov. “And this is the flattened curve.”

“I was in Sri Lanka when the Covid-19 pandemic began to spread around the world,” says Chris Stevens, who writes the travel blog at Stoked For Travel. “The situation there quickly escalated into a crisis, and I had to leave urgently - I received a notification that I had to leave the country within 48 hours.”

“I had two options - return to Europe to my parents or go to Australia, where my brother has a house. I spoke to my father, a paramedic for 40 years, and he said Australia was the best option.”

Upon arrival, Stevens had to go into a two-week self-isolation to check if he was infected.

If current trends continue, Australia expects the healthcare system to cope with the expected increase in the need for ventilators and places in intensive care units.

After quarantine measures are relaxed, Australians are about to return to normal life with its usual pleasures.

“I can’t wait to settle into my favorite café with a cup of coffee, in the sun, with my best friends, chatting and laughing,” says Sydney resident Jennifer De Luca, a writer for Luxury Adventure Travel.

“In a word, we want what we used to do every week, without thinking and taking for granted.”

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