The deterioration of relations between Russia and the United States: can things get even worse

Фото: Depositphotos

The split in relations between the United States and Russia, if not reached its peak, is definitely already somewhere nearby. Last week, the United States announced the closure of the Russian Consulate General in San Francisco, as well as two Russian trade missions in Washington and New York. The US State Department said the decision was made “on parity” in response to limiting the number of employees of the American diplomatic mission in Russia. After that, the trade mission in Washington managed go through searchesand over the consulate of Russia in San Francisco noticed black smoke from the chimney - the journalists suspected that something was being burned there.

The reaction of the Russian side to the closure of its consular offices in America was rather harsh.

So, the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova in his comment from 1 September called the decision of the American authorities "unprecedented measures to limit the activities of Russian diplomatic and consular missions in the United States».

«This step is a new gross violation of international law, including US obligations under the Vienna Conventions on diplomatic and consular relations.", - said in an official statement Zakharova on the page of the Russian Foreign Ministry.

«In addition to another raider seizure of expensive Russian state-owned property, which we are aggressively offering to sell after blocking, this time the demands of the US authorities pose a direct threat to the safety of Russian citizens.", - noted Zakharova.

Russian Consulate in San Francisco in a statement published on official page of the department in social networks, also called the decision of the American authorities "unfriendly step, which, first of all, will hurt the Russian citizens living in the consular district, as well as the American citizens, since a significant part of Russians also have American citizenship».

Further more

Meanwhile, the reaction of American experts to the decision varies.

Famous American commentator, writer, former diplomat and intelligence analyst James bruno assumes that the relay of mutual “cuts” and “restrictions” with respect to consular institutions will not stop at this and we should expect even greater cooling of diplomatic ties. At the same time, he calls the closure of the Russian consulate in San Francisco “an important and necessary answer.”

«Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, when our diplomatic mission in Kyiv became the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine, our countries have maintained an unequal number of consulates. Thursday's decision [to close the Russian consulate in San Francisco and two Russian trade missions in the United States. - Auth. ] corrected this imbalance. With the closure of the Russian consulate in San Francisco, the US and Russia are left with three consulates, respectively, on a parity basis. However, there remains a risk that Vladimir Putin may order the closure of the US Consulate General in St. Petersburg, since it has been linked to the Russian mission in San Francisco since 1972 on the basis of reciprocity, in accordance with the Consular Agreement between the United States and the USSR . Thus, Washington’s actions may actually lead to an intensification of the “downward spiral” in Russian-American relations", - shared his opinion with ForumDaily James bruno.

Having worked 27 for years at the FBI Andrew Bringuel warns: for the United States itself, retaliation in the logic of the “Cold War diplomatic school” can be fraught with dangerous diplomatic consequences.

«If the situation gets out of control, it can easily develop into a "downward spiral." The United States imposes economic sanctions, Russia responds, expelling American diplomats, America responds by closing the consulate and several institutions, but at the same time emphasizes its hope of ending the conflict. Obviously, the United States does not want further escalation, but you understand that Russia will have to respond in some way. Perhaps bombers flying in support of North Korea will be their answer."- fears Bringuel.

At the same time, the former FBI officer in the comments of ForumDaily stressed: “Russian espionage will never diminish to such an extent as to cease to be a threat to us. Their tactics and operators may change, but their strategic goals will always remain the same as during the Cold War, which means we must remain vigilant».

On the right in the photo is the building of the Russian consulate in San Francisco. Photo: Depositphotos

Unequal battle

Former senior CIA officer with nearly 30 years of experience in intelligence John Siefer holds a different point of view. In his opinion, Washington’s response is disproportionately small in comparison with Moscow’s actions and cannot level the damage inflicted on American intelligence.

«I think this is not a serious answer, and the President’s previous comments and his submissive attitude towards Putin are even more disturbing. In fact, it's a shame. The people working in our embassy in Moscow are our best people. They spend years preparing and learning the language, they take their families with them in a difficult environment where they are likely to be chased. For them, a bad attitude on the part of the Russian government is an expected thing. And they do not deserve such an attitude from their own president."He notes.

Regarding the question of expelling American diplomats from Russia, John Cypher is sure that in this area Washington traditionally loses to Moscow.

«Russians are stronger than us in this, and much more ruthless. Earlier, when we caught Russian spies or tried to send them, Russia responded immediately. They are obsessed with being treated as equals. However, the problem is that they have four or five times more intelligence officers in the United States than we have in Moscow. When both sides discard the same number of people, we have far fewer opportunities in Russia than they have in America. In addition, the FSB is much tougher and more unbearable for our diplomats in Moscow than the FBI here"He adds.

A veteran of the CIA emphasizes: the main essence of the sanctions imposed by Washington and the expulsion of Russian diplomats in late December is the punishment of Russia. However, when adopting a “parity” approach, it is impossible to achieve this goal.

«The bottom line is that the Russians attacked us in a blatant and unwarranted manner. They are trying to harm us and weaken us and our allies around the world. Their activities in Ukraine, Syria, Afghanistan and other countries go beyond the permissible limits of international standards. Therefore, to allow them to insist on parity and to lead in the expulsion of diplomats is simply unacceptable. We must not forget that it was they who created these problems, and therefore they, and not we, must suffer from their consequences. It turns out that they treat us like enemies, and we treat them like friends and equals? This makes no sense"- indignant Cypher.

«Russia attacked us. We tried to make it clear to them and punish them, but in the end we lost many more people. We expelled 35 spies, and Russia, in turn, sent 755 people. We closed a couple of buildings, but allowed their employees to remain in the country, and then accepted the Russian requirement of “parity”. For us, this is a serious defeat."- said the former scout.

Also, John Cypher notes that the closure of the consulate specifically in San Francisco makes sense only if the Russians really leave the occupied building.

«If they stay there and the FBI cannot enter, for us it will be another loss. It seems that the Russians will be able to stay in the building. If so, they can continue to use technical spy equipment on the roof of the former consulate and manage spy operations inside it. The only thing they will do is stop accepting applications for visas. Again, we lose“- he concluded.

Recall that 28 July Russia demanded from the US before September 1, the number of employees of their diplomatic missions on Russian territory more than doubled - to 455 people, having sent 755 diplomats from the country. In addition, the Americans were forbidden to use the embassy cottage in Serebryany Bor and a warehouse on Dorozhnaya Street. Requirements for American diplomats were made in response to the law providing new sanctions in respect of Russia and signed by President Trump 2 August.

Earlier, December 29 2016, outgoing US President Barack Obama signed a decree introducing new anti-Russian sanctions in connection with “Moscow’s interference in the American elections and pressure on American diplomats” working in Russia. State Department on the same day declared persona non grata 35 Russian diplomats, accusing them of acting "not according to their diplomatic or consular status." In addition, there were are closed two Russian diplomatic villas in Maryland and New York.

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