Catastrophic hurricanes in the USA: how man and nature are to blame - ForumDaily
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Catastrophic hurricanes in the USA: how man and nature are to blame

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When listing the causes of devastating hurricanes, climate change is far from the first place. However, there are some signs suggesting that global warming did not go here, writes Air force.

Forces of nature

Hurricanes are a complex natural phenomenon that is extremely difficult to predict, whether global temperatures are rising or not. It is also extremely difficult to identify with scientific certainty the impact of climate change on the strength of hurricanes, because they happen relatively rarely, their frequency varies widely from year to year, and scientists simply do not have enough data for comparative analysis.

There are, however, facts that we can talk about more or less confidently. There is a well-known physical law, it is called the Clapeyron-Clausius equation: according to it, the atmosphere with a higher temperature contains more moisture. When the air temperature rises by one degree Celsius, the humidity rises by 7%. As a result, it rains in warm air more intensely.

Another element that we can talk about with certain confidence is the temperature of the sea.

"Right now, water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are about 1,5 degrees warmer than the average between 1980 and 2010," Brian Hoskins of the Climate Change Institute at the London School of Economics told the BBC.

“This is very important because it creates the conditions for a more powerful storm to develop, and the effect that global warming has on warming the waters of the Gulf of Mexico is, in general, almost inevitable,” he says.

Many scientists have almost no doubt that there is a link between the intensity of precipitation and the climate change that is occurring.

“This is exactly the kind of phenomenon - in the sense of more intense rainfall - that we would expect in a warmer climate,” says Dr Friederike Otto from the University of Oxford. “Looking at the intensity of precipitation, it’s not unreasonable to assume that changes in climate played some role.”

However, the question remains why the storms are so long. After all, precisely because of this duration, many areas are flooded.

Some researchers here tend to see the effects of climate change.

Professor Stefan Ramstorf of the Potsdam Institute for the Study of Climate Change says that climate change in other regions of the Earth can be the cause of the general slowdown in the circulation of air in the atmosphere at mid-latitudes.

“This is the result of disproportionate warming in the Arctic, which causes weather systems to become less mobile and stay in the same region longer,” he says.

Human factor

Meanwhile, other researchers say that we all look at this problem in the wrong way.

Regardless of whether human activity affects the climate on Earth, they believe that the contribution of humanity to this particular catastrophe can be easily and simply explained.

"A hurricane is just a storm, not a disaster," says Dr Ilan Kelman of the Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction at the Institute for Global Health at University College London.

“The catastrophe is that the population of Houston has increased by 1990% since 40. The disaster is that too many people in the city are too poor to afford insurance,” he says.

“It’s not climate change that forces people to build houses near the coast, which is hit by storms,” says the scientist. “And the fact that a natural phenomenon turns into a disaster is the result of our own choices, which have nothing to do with climate change.”

Read also on ForumDaily:

How to protect your home and wallet if you live in a hurricane zone

How to survive a hurricane with minimal losses

The most powerful hurricanes over the Atlantic since 1980 of the year

Miscellanea Hurricane changing of the climate Educational program
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