The US has allowed a Russian oil tanker to reach Cuba despite the blockade.

The US Coast Guard is allowing a Russian tanker carrying crude oil to pass through Cuba, allowing the island to receive vital fuel. This comes after several months of a de facto oil blockade imposed by the Trump administration, writes The New York Times.

A tanker carrying crude oil could arrive at its destination as early as the beginning of this week, according to a US official familiar with the situation.

According to MarineTraffic, on the evening of March 29, a Russian-owned tanker carrying approximately 730,000 barrels of oil was located several miles from Cuban territorial waters. At a speed of approximately 12 knots, it could reach the port of Matanzas by the evening of March 30.

On the subject: Trump has announced his intention to 'take' Cuba and is demanding the resignation of the island nation's head of government.

Analysts believe the arrival of the Russian vessel could change the dynamic of the rapidly escalating crisis in Cuba, giving the country at least a few more weeks before running out of fuel.

This will, among other things, reduce pressure on the Cuban leadership, which is facing the threat of economic collapse and growing signals from Washington, and will also demonstrate that the island can still count on the support of its long-standing ally, Russia.

Since January, the Trump administration has effectively maintained an oil blockade against Cuba, threatening countries that supply the island with fuel and, in one case, even escorting a tanker headed to Cuba, forcing it to change course.

There are two US Coast Guard patrol ships in the region that could attempt to intercept the Russian tanker. However, according to a US official speaking on condition of anonymity, no such order has been issued. As of March 29 (unless otherwise indicated), the Coast Guard intended to allow the vessel to proceed to Cuba.

The White House's reasons for not blocking the tanker remain unclear, as does whether further shipments of Russian oil to the island will be permitted. The decision avoids a potentially complex conflict with Russia off the Florida coast.

 

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Answering reporters' questions aboard Air Force One on the evening of March 29, Donald Trump confirmed this information: "We have no problem with anyone shipping oil there, because they need to survive. I said, 'If any country wants to ship oil to Cuba right now, I have no problem.' It doesn't matter if it's Russia or not."

At the same time, he downplayed the significance of these supplies for Cuba: "It won't have any impact—Cuba is finished. They have a bad regime, an extremely corrupt leadership. And the presence of one tanker of oil won't change anything."

In its statement, the Russian Embassy in Mexico emphasized that Moscow expresses full solidarity with Cuba, considers all restrictions imposed against it illegal, in particular restrictions on energy supplies, and is ready to provide the necessary assistance, including financial assistance.

The US oil blockade has severely impacted Cuba: the island faces daily power outages, severe fuel shortages, rising prices, and a deteriorating healthcare system. This policy has drawn international criticism, including from the UN, which points to a developing humanitarian crisis.

At the same time, White House officials are publicly pressuring the Cuban leadership and privately calling for the removal of President Miguel Diaz-Canel.

This month, Trump said he expected to "have the honor of taking Cuba" and raised the possibility of using military force after the war with Iran ends.

"I've built a powerful military. I said they wouldn't have to be used. But sometimes they do. And Cuba is next," he said at an investment conference.

On March 27, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the White House wants new leadership in Cuba. "Cuba's economy must change, but this is impossible without changing the political system," he noted.

The island nation's authorities, for their part, have declared their readiness to defend themselves. Cuban Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío stated that the country's armed forces are on alert and are considering the possibility of military aggression, although they hope it won't come to that.

The approaching Russian tanker could change the nature of tensions between the countries. Cuba, relying on solar power, domestic oil production, and limited fuel supplies to the private sector, is rapidly depleting its energy resources. The crisis has already sparked rare protests and called into question the stability of the government.

Russian crude oil could temporarily ease this crisis. It can be refined into diesel and jet fuel, gasoline, and fuel oil used in power plants. This will help stabilize the energy grid, reduce power outages, improve transportation, and support agriculture, according to University of Texas expert Jorge Piñón.

He said the oil would give Cuba a respite, but it wouldn't solve all its problems. Refining would take about three weeks, and another week for distribution throughout the country.

Diesel fuel, essential for trucks, agricultural machinery, and power plants, remains the most critical resource. Its shortage leads to delays in humanitarian aid, disruptions in key economic sectors that provide food security and raw materials for industry through crop production, livestock farming, and fisheries, and disruptions in the power supply.

About 40% of Cuba's energy system is supplied by power plants running on its own oil. The country is also actively developing solar energy. However, the remaining 40% of generation relies on small diesel-powered plants.

According to Pinion's estimate, the supplied volume of oil could last less than a month, with some of the resources likely to be directed to strategic reserves and security forces.

The tanker Anatoly Kolodkin departed from the Russian port of Primorsk in the Baltic Sea on March 9. In 2024, the US imposed sanctions against the vessel and its owner, the state-owned company Sovcomflot.

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Initially, the ship tracking system listed "Atlantis, USA" as the destination, which was likely a joke. On March 29, the island port of Matanzas was listed as the destination.

Former Cuban diplomat Carlos Alzugaray noted that the Trump administration had hoped to force the island nation's authorities to make concessions through the blockade, but that the process is proceeding more slowly than expected.

"Trump and Rubio are assuming that this government will collapse on its own," he concluded. "But the Cuban authorities are confident they can hold out."

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